Middleweights collide when Jared Cannonier and Nassourdine Imavov head to the KFC Yum! Center in Louisville on June 8.
Cannonier is ranked fourth in the UFC’s middleweight rankings. The 40-year-old is on a two-fight win streak after failing to capture gold at 185. Finally recovered from an injury, Cannonier looks to return to the top of the division.
Ranked seventh in the rankings, Imavov is a force in the division. He beat Roman Dolidze in February despite being deducted a point. "The Sniper" has five wins via knockout, his previous win via the power punch being in 2021.
Which fighter will prove they deserve to compete for the UFC middleweight title? Will there be any upsets on the main card featuring former contenders, growing stars, and those looking for some momentum?
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With the help of Sports Interaction, The Sporting News makes predictions on the entire main card at UFC Kentucky: Cannonier vs. Imavov.
UFC Louisville expert picks and predictions
Jared Cannonier vs. Nassourdine Imavov; Middleweights
Per Sports Interaction, Nassourdine Imavov is the -120 favorite, while Jared Cannonier is the +100 underdog.
Cannonier has been out of action since June 2023, suffering from a torn MCL. While neutered against Israel Adesanya, only landing 90 significant strikes, not many fighters can match his power. “The Killa Gorilla” lands 4.68 significant strikes per minute, landing 382 combined strikes in his last two fights. Cannonier also lands 0.44 takedowns per 15 minutes.
Imavov landed 112 strikes against Roman Dolidze and 123 in a losing effort against Sean Strickland. He lands 4.53 significant strikes per minute. The French fighter also averages 0.87 takedowns landed per 15 minutes.
If the fight gets to the floor, it will be interesting to see who can pressure the other. On the feet is where things can get fun. Imavov can win by pushing forward with his strikes while keeping a safe distance. He can also adapt well to an attack. However, Cannonier can easily cut Imavov off within the octagon, suffocating and striking from the clinch. If he keeps a consistent pace through the fight, Cannonier can give Imavov a lot of trouble.
Sporting News prediction: Cannonier via unanimous decision
Dominick Reyes vs. Dustin Jacoby; Light Heavyweights
Dustin Jacoby is the -250 favorite, while Dominick Reyes is the +200 underdog
Reyes hasn’t had the best luck since losing against Jon Jones in what many call a controversial scoring decision in 2020, losing four straight. He hasn’t fought since November 2022 but still presents a threat. “The Devastator” lands 4.75 significant strikes per minute and averages 0.36 takedowns landed per 15 minutes.
Jacoby is 1-3 in his last four fights. “The Hanyak” lands 5.53 significant strikes per minute and also averages 0.36 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. He does absorb 4.07 significant strikes per minute, while Reyes, despite his run, only absorbs 3.77.
It is a must-win fight for Reyes, who appears motivated. The fight may not make it to the floor, meaning the two will stand and bang. Reyes is a devastating puncher who still has power. If he could take advantage of his one-inch reach advantage and keep a bit of distance, he should get the win.
Sporting News prediction: Reyes via unanimous decision
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Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Ricky Turcios; Bantamweights
Raul Rosas Jr. is the -225 favorite, while Ricky Turcios is the +185 underdog.
Rosas is considered the future of MMA. "El Nino Problema" lands 1.28 significant strikes per minute and averages 3.57 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, landing eight in four octagon fights. Turcios is 2-2 in his last four fights and lands 5.08 significant strikes per minute. He landed 210 significant strikes in his first two UFC fights.
Turcios is susceptible to the takedown game, being brought down 13 times in three fights. He also hasn’t fought since November 2022. Rosas can’t make mistakes like he did in the Christian Rodriguez fight.
Ultimately, Rosas should be able to master the timing of Turcios, take him down, and tire him out.
Sporting News prediction: Rosas via submission (round one)
Brunno Ferreira vs. Dustin Stoltzfus; Middleweights
Brunno Ferreira is the -275 favorite, while Dustin Stoltzfus is the +220 underdog.
Ferreira lands 5.00 significant strikes per minute and is 3-1 in his last four fights. He also averages 1.25 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Stoltzfus is 2-2 in his previous four fights, lands 3.49 significant strikes per minute, and averages 2.40 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, landing six in three fights.
Ferreira has yet to go past ten minutes in the cage, while Stoltzfus has experience. If Stoltzfus can counter shots and stuff Ferreira by the cage, that can be his best chance at winning. However, the latter’s power and Jiu-Jitsu skills may be too much. “The Hulk” should walk out with a win. Which round can he end it?
Sporting News prediction: Ferreira via knockout (round one)
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Julian Marquez vs. Zachary Reece; Middleweights
Julian Marquez is the -145 favorite, while Zachary Reece is the +120 underdog.
Marquez lands 4.86 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.99 significant strikes. "The Cuban Missile Crisis" is susceptible to the takedown, getting taken down 14 in his first four UFC fights. In two UFC fights, Reese lands 3.93 significant strikes. "Savage" has four wins via knockout.
Reese got knocked out in his UFC debut, while Marquez has gotten stopped in two straight. Marquez’s power should carry in this fight past Reece’s novice skills in the octagon.
Sporting News prediction: Marquez via TKO (round three)
Miguel Baeza vs. Punahele Soriano; Welterweights
Miguel Baeza is the -200 favorite, while Punahele Soriano is the +165 underdog.
Baeza is on a three-fight losing streak, while Soriano is 1-2 in his last three fights. The former lands 4.88 significant strikes per minute, while Soriano lands 3.96. Regarding the floor game, Baeza averages 0.44 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Soriano has a takedown defense of 33%, having been brought down 18 times in four fights.
If all goes according to plan, Baeza should walk out the winner. He does get tagged (Baeza absorbs 5.10 significant strikes per minute), but he does have a good ground game thanks to his Jiu-Jitsu. Soriano has struggled against Roman Kopylov and Dustin Stolzfus, and a striker like Baeza should give him trouble.
Sporting News prediction: Baeza via KO (round two)
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