Two rematches, this time for gold, highlight the UFC’s return to Manchester for UFC 304 on July 27. The main event for UFC 304 will be Leon Edwards defending the UFC welterweight title against Belal Muhammad.
Edwards and Muhammad competed against one another in March 2021. Their fight ended in a no-contest following an eye poke to Muhammad.
Both have gone on the same but almost different paths since. Birmingham’s Edwards has won four straight, including a dramatic head kick to Kamaru Usman at UFC 286 to win the UFC welterweight title. He has not lost a fight since 2015. Muhammad, unbeaten since 2019, has won five straight since the Edwards fight.
With hopefully no distractions or controversial endings, who will walk out of Manchester the champion?
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Tom Aspinall defends the interim UFC heavyweight title against Curtis Blaydes in the co-main event. Aspinall and Blaydes last fought in July 2022, where Aspinall injured his knee 15 seconds into the fight. Aspinall has won two straight since coming back, capturing the interim belt. Blaydes, always close to the top of the rankings, is 1-1 since the fight. Can he finally reach the top of the mountain?
The event also features the dynamic duo of Molly McCann and Paddy Pimblett, rising contenders Muhammad Mokaev and Manel Kape, London’s Nathaniel Wood, and more.
With the help of Sports Interaction, the Sporting News makes predictions on the entire card at UFC 304.
UFC 304 expert picks and full card predictions
Leon Edwards (c) vs. Belal Muhammad 2 for the UFC welterweight title
Per Sports Interaction, Leon Edwards is the -275 favorite, while Belal Muhammad is the +210 underdog.
Edwards landed 19 significant strikes last time, while Muhammad landed eight. Edwards had the clear edge before the eye poke stopped the contest. The champion lands 2.75 significant strikes per minute, has a 53% strike accuracy mark, averages 1.25 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, and has a takedown defense mark of 70%. Muhammad lands 4.55 significant strikes per minute, has a strike accuracy mark of 43%, and averages 1.98 takedowns landed per 15 minutes.
Both can land for power, as Muhammad landed 132 significant strikes against Gilbert Burns, while Edwards landed 120 against Kamaru Usman in their trilogy. Edwards let his hands go against Muhammad last time, which can happen in this fight. Edwards is susceptible to the takedown but has landed a few of his own and has developed a solid wrestling game over time. Muhammad needs to be careful of Edwards' takedown defense and can't get too overaggressive on offense.
It is a fight Muhammad needs to win to prove he's the best after all these years of waiting (not his fault) and proclaiming his greatness. Edwards still has detractors but has managed to shut them up each time. The Sporting News believes Edwards will do it again. It won’t be an explosive outing, but Edwards should continue his momentum from the first fight and land punishing shots.
Sporting News prediction: Edwards via TKO (round three)
Tom Aspinall (ic) vs. Curtis Blaydes 2 for the interim UFC heavyweight title
Per Sports Interaction, Tom Aspinall is the -375 favorite, while Curtis Blaydes is the +290 underdog.
Both combined for seven strikes before Aspinall injured his leg when they fought in 2022. Speaking of, Aspinall is a pure striker, landing 7.72 significant strikes per minute with a 66% strike accuracy mark. All but one of his fights in the octagon have only lasted one round.
Blaydes lands 3.53 significant strikes per minute and has a 50% accuracy mark. His power is on the floor, as Blaydes averages 5.72 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. While Jailton Almeida landed nine against him, the NJCAA National Championships gold medalist fought back with power shots.
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UFC heavyweight champion Jon Jones believes Blaydes would have handedly beaten Aspinall before the injury. However, Aspinall is a solid grappler, understands range and timing, and moves fast for a big guy. If he can expose Blaydes and take him to the floor, he can land shots that go past the defense of "Razor" and retain his interim belt.
Nobody would deny him after, not even Jones (or Stipe Miococ).
Sporting News prediction: Aspinall via TKO (round two)
“King” Bobby Green vs. Paddy Pimblett; Lightweights
Per Sports Interaction, King Green is the -115 favorite, while Paddy Pimblett is the -105 underdog.
Bobby legally changed his name and looks to regain a win streak. King lands 6.45 significant strikes per minute, has a 52% strike accuracy mark, and averages 1.19 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. He landed 186 significant strikes against Jim Miller. Pimblett lands 5.13 significant strikes per minute and has an accuracy mark of 52%. He landed 106 significant strikes against Tony Ferguson.
Both fighters face the opposite of their last opponent. Pimblett is a rising star who received a questionable win against Jared Gordon in December 2022. “The Paddy” has been relatively inactive since. Green has faced significant competition and can land vicious shots.
Green taunts his opponents and can entertain like Pimblett can, which often leads to trouble for both. What separates the two is that Pimblett leaves his chin overexposed. Against someone like Green, that may be his downfall. If Green doesn’t get too cocky or force this to go to the end, he could end Pimblett’s momentum.
Sporting News prediction: Green via TKO (round one)
Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Gregory Rodrigues; Middleweights
Per Sports Interaction, Christian Leroy Duncan is the -145 favorite, while Gregory Rodrigues is the +120 underdog.
"CLD" lands 5.96 significant strikes per minute, outlanding Claudio Ribeiro by 61 shots in March. He has eight wins via knockout. Rodrigues lands 6.08 significant strikes per minute, has a 55% strike accuracy mark, and averages 2.46 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. “Robocop” is on a two-fight win streak.
Duncan appears to be the better striker in and out of the cage. However, Rodrigues' ability to adapt on the feet or floor gives him the edge in the fight. One of the fighters may earn a performance bonus here. Rodrigues should get the upset win.
Sporting News prediction: Rodrigues via KO (round one)
Arnold Allen vs. Giga Chikadze; Featherweights
Per Sports Interaction, Arnold Allen is the -250 favorite, while Giga Chikadze is the +200 underdog.
Allen is on a two-fight losing streak, with Max Holloway landing 147 significant strikes against him and Movsar Evloev landing five takedowns. He lands 3.39 significant strikes per minute and has a strike accuracy mark of 40%. Chikadze lands 4.08 significant strikes per minute and has a 43% accuracy mark.
Allen is a much more active fighter, but will that be a detriment to his abilities in this fight? Chikadze is a former kickboxer with plenty of gas in the tank at 35. There may be an upset at the hands of the Russian against Ipswich's Allen as long as he focuses on fighting outside the clinch.
Sporting News prediction: Chikadze via TKO (round two)
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Nathaniel Wood vs. Daniel Pineda; Featherweights
Per Sports Interaction, Nathanial Wood is the -450 favorite, while Bruna Brasil is the +260 underdog.
Wood lands 5.91 significant strikes landed, has a 50% strike accuracy mark, and averages 1.74 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. He just had a three-fight win streak come to an end. Pineda is 1-2 with one no-contest in his last four fights. He lands 3.09 significant strikes per minute, has an accuracy mark of 49%, and averages 1.71 takedowns landed.
Facing hard hitters, Pineda has struggled mightily. Wood, 30, may not be considered "The Prospect" anymore, but he is durable. The London-based fighter should get the job done in the fight.
Sporting News prediction: Wood via unanimous decision
Molly McCann vs. Bruna Brasil; Strawweights
Per Sports Interaction, Molly McCann is the -350 favorite, while Bruna Brasil is the +260 underdog.
"Meatball" Molly lands 5.79 significant strikes per minute, has a strike accuracy mark of 49%, and averages 1.82 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. All her most recent London fights (2-1) have ended with a finish. Brasil lands 2.94 significant strikes per minute and averages 1.59 takedowns landed per 15 minutes.
Against significant increases in competition, both have struggled. However, McCann has the experience to come out on top. The Liverpool-born star can land heavy shots and can even use her strength to have an edge in the clinch if it comes to that.
Sporting News prediction: McCann via TKO (round three)
Caolan Loughran vs. Jake Hadley; Bantamweights
Per Sports Interaction, Caolan Loughran is the -225 favorite, while Jake Hadley is the +180 underdog.
In his short time in the octagon, Loughran has landed 6.27 significant strikes per minute, landing 140 against Angel Pacheco. He also averages 2.50 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. “The Don” has five wins via knockout. Hadley is on a two-fight losing streak and lands 3.36 significant strikes per minute. "White Kong" does have five wins via submission.
Hadley just fought in May, while Loughran fought in March. Would the former feel exhausted after finishing up another training camp? Loughran’s power is real and dangerous and he should be able to crack Hadley’s chin a few times.
Sporting News prediction: Loughran via TKO (round two)
Mick Parkin vs. Lukasz Brzeski; Heavyweights
Per Sports Interaction, Mick Parkin is the -300 favorite, while Lukasz Brzeski is the +240 underdog.
Parkin lands 4.54 significant strikes per minute and averages 1.60 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Brzeski lands 4.78 significant strikes landed and has a strike accuracy mark of 49%. He is susceptible to the takedown, being brought to the floor four times in his last fight and eight against Karl Williams in 2023.
It should be a lopsided win for Parkin, who trained with Tom Aspinall. He will use his wrestling to hold Brzeski down, bullying him.
Sporting News prediction: Parkin via unanimous decision
Oban Elliott vs. Preston Parsons; Welterweights
Per Sports Interaction, Preston Parsons is the -140 favorite, while Oban Elliott is the +115 underdog.
Parsons averages 3.83 takedowns landed per minute and 4.30 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. He landed 14 takedowns in his last three fights, with seven against Matthew Semelsberger. “Pressure" has nine wins via submission.
Elliott lands 4.27 significant strikes per minute and averages 3.50 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. "The Welsh Gangster" has two knockout and three submission wins.
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Both have solid chins, can wrestle, and will likely fight in the clinch. It is a potential Fight of the Night candidate. It should go the distance, with Parsons tiring out Elliott by the end.
Sporting News prediction: Parsons via split decision
Muhammad Mokaev vs. Manel Kape; Flyweights
Per Sports Interaction, Muhammad Mokaev is the -150 favorite, while Manel Kape is the +125 underdog.
The fight continues to get moved down the card, perhaps due to Kape’s recent history (nine octagon fights have gotten canceled). When active, Kape is dangerous. He lands 5.12 significant strikes per minute, landing 112 against Felipe dos Santos. The former RIZIN bantamweight champion has eleven wins via knockout and ranks eighth at flyweight.
Ranked sixth, Mokaev is considered the next contender for gold. "The Punisher" lands 1.53 significant strikes per minute and averages 5.75 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Five straight fights have gone the distance.
Mokaev’s discipline has led him on the fast track to success. His ground game is out of this world, and he can strike with the best of the division. The fight should be fast-paced, and Kape will be more aggressive here. However, Mokaev should get the job done. It will either end in the blink of an eye, or Mokaev catches Kape with a quick finish.
Sporting News prediction: Mokaev via submission (round two)
Sam Patterson vs. Kiefer Crosbie; Welterweights
Per Sports Interaction, Sam Patterson is the -400 favorite, while Kiefer Crosbie is the +300 underdog.
Patterson is 2-1 in the octagon, landing 2.54 significant strikes per minute and averaging 1.19 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. "The Future," a Dana White's Contender Series alum, has six wins via submission and four via knockout. Crosbie landed 39 significant strikes in his UFC debut in September and has five wins via knockout.
The resume of Patterson and his overall skills impress me more against someone who has gone from exhibition boxing to early losses in Bellator. Patterson can provide pressure early and force Crosbie, susceptible to the takedown, to submit.
Sporting News prediction: Patterson via submission (round one)
Shauna Bannon vs. Alice Ardelean; Strawweights
Per Sports Interaction, Shauna Bannon is the -175 favorite, while Alice Ardelean is the +145 underdog.
In her short time in the octagon, Bannon landed 54 significant strikes against Bruna Brasil. Before that fight, a loss, she won five in a row to start her career with two knockout wins. Ardelean has four wins via knockout and four via submission, winning five straight since 2016. Her last loss was against Zhang Weili.
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Bannon can win if she utilizes her aggressive approach to keep Ardelean on the defensive, providing pressure. Ardelean can take it to the ground and neutralize Bannon. Who has the edge? The Sporting News believes Bannon’s raw, technical style will be enough. As long as the fight doesn’t make it to the floor.
Sporting News prediction: Bannon via unanimous decision
Modestas Bukauskas vs. Marcin Prachnio; Light Heavyweights
Per Sports Interaction, Modestas Bukauskas is the -165 favorite, while Marcin Prachnio is the +135 underdog.
Bukauskas had a four-fight win streak recently end. The former Cage Warriors light heavyweight champion lands 3.28 significant strikes per minute and has a strike accuracy mark of 41%. Prachnio is 2-2 in his last two fights. He lands 5.61 significant strikes per minute, landing 101 against Devin Clark in his previous fight.
The 36-year-old Prachnio is the more active fighter. And while he may not have the same speed as Bukauskas, he can pack a punch. An effective shot followed by flurries may be enough to take down Bukauskas for an early UFC 304 upset.
Sporting News prediction: Prachnio via TKO (round two)
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