A celebration of violence will be the theme of UFC 300 on April 13. The main event will be Alex Pereira defending the UFC light heavyweight title against Jamahal Hill.
Pereira is a former UFC middleweight champion and one of the fastest to have won gold in two weight classes. The Brazilian is also a former kickboxing champion with serious power. “Poatan” just won the UFC light heavyweight title against Jiri Prochazka.
Hill is the former champion who had to relinquish the belt due to injury. “Sweet Dreams” is on a four-fight win streak and ready to hold gold again.
The co-main event will be Zhang Weili defending the UFC strawweight title against Yan Xiaonan, while Justin Gaethje defends his status as the BMF Champion against Max Holloway.
WATCH: UFC 300: Alex Pereira vs. Jamahal Hill, exclusively on ESPN+
The event is stacked from top to bottom, featuring multiple former champions and touted fighters. Deiveson Figueiredo, Jim Miller, Kayla Harrison, Prochazka, Bo Nickal, and Charles Oliveira are just a few names on the card.
Here are SN's official picks for every fight on the card, along with full betting odds for UFC 300, courtesy of Bet MGM.
UFC 300 expert picks and full card predictions
Alex Pereira (c) vs. Jamahal Hill for the UFC light heavyweight title
Per Bet MGM, Alex Pereira is the -135 favorite, while Jamahal Hill is the +110 underdog.
Pereira lands 5.00 significant strikes per minute and has a strike accuracy mark of 62%. If the UFC had the stats the PFL has, it would probably provide the rapid speed at which he lands his punches. Hill lands 7.31 significant strikes per minute and has a strike accuracy mark of 54%. Against Glover Teixeira, he landed 232.
A double champion, Pereira is not as big a favorite as many thought. Hill is a competent fighter who has beaten some of the best in the division. However, one has to wonder how his Achilles is after rupturing it. Does he trust his movement? What if the fight turns into a grappling game? Pereira struggles on the floor but is quick with his movements. Nothing is holding him back.
The stoic Pereira looks to beat another roadblock, while Hill wants the title he never lost. The Sporting News believes that Pereira will continue to call himself champion.
Sporting News prediction: Pereira via TKO (round two)
Zhang Weili (c) vs. Yan Xiaonan for the UFC strawweight title
Per Bet MGM, Zhang Weili is the -500 favorite, while Yan Xiaonan is the +375 underdog.
A two-time UFC strawweight champion, Zhang lands 5.94 significant strikes per minute and has a 51% strike accuracy mark. She also averages 2.29 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Her last fight against Amanda Lemos saw Zhang land six takedowns and 163 significant strikes. It was the most strikes landed since she tagged Joanna Jedrzejczyk 165 times in a legendary clash.
Yan lands 5.55 significant strikes per minute and has a strike accuracy mark of 44%. She averages 0.85 takedowns landed per 15 minutes.
It is an anticipated China vs. China showdown, and despite Zhang being the heavy favorite, the fight has a chance to be an electric one. As far as a winner, Zhang can bully Yan on the floor, and while both can land a punch, Zhang appears to be the more dominant striker. Expect Zhang to retain here, especially toward the later rounds.
Sporting News prediction: Zhang via KO (round four)
Justin Gaethje (c) vs. Max Holloway for the BMF title
Per Bet MGM, Justin Gaethje is the -165 favorite, while Max Holloway is the +135 underdog.
The fight is between two of the most prolific strikers in MMA history. Gaethje lands 7.35 significant strikes per minute and has a strike accuracy mark of 60%. Holloway lands 7.17 significant strikes per minute and has a strike accuracy mark of 47%. "Blessed" landed triple-digit significant strikes in 11 straight fights outside his last contest. Gaethje sparingly lands triple-digit shots but has been known to punish the competition.
Neither man will leave this on the floor. A question on everyone’s minds is simple: Who will break the other? Holloway decimated Calvin Kattar with 445 significant strikes. He has a granite chin that has helped him absorb 4.75 strikes. Meanwhile, Gaethje gives damage and takes it, absorbing 7.50 strikes.
The fight has the potential to be an all-out war. It could also lead to some heartache, depending on the outcome. The Sporting News believes Gaethje will land better shots, forcing Holloway to pivot. It could end up being your fight of the night.
Sporting News prediction: Gaethje via split decision
MORE: How to buy tickets for UFC 300: Alex Pereira vs. Jamahal Hill
Charles Oliveira vs. Arman Tsarukyan; Lightweights
Per Bet MGM, Arman Tsarukyan is the -200 favorite, while Charles Oliveira is the +165 underdog.
The fight is a lightweight title eliminator. Tsarukyan lands 3.85 significant strikes per minute and has a strike accuracy mark of 48%. Oliveira lands 3.54 significant strikes per minute and has a strike accuracy mark of 53%. The latter averages 2.32 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, while Tsarukyan averages 3.40.
"Do Bronx" is a known warrior, as Oliveira has fought some of the toughest fighters in UFC history. Tsarukyan is just heating up, and after losing against Mateusz Gamrot, he has won three straight, including a win against Beneil Dariush, a previous Oliveira opponent.
Oliveira has endured severe punishment but has come back and thrived against tough opponents. He wants a rematch against Islam Makhachev, but can he do the same against the younger Armenian? If Tsarukyan strikes, he will look to punish the former champion. They are somewhat even on the ground, making this a fun fight.
The fight has a chance for one or both to receive a bonus. An Oliveira upset isn’t out of the question on a night expected for great moments.
Sporting News prediction: Oliveira via TKO (round three)
Bo Nickal vs. Cody Brundage; Middleweights
Per Bet MGM, Bo Nickal is the -2000 favorite, while Cody Brundage is the +950 underdog.
Nickal is an eight-time gold medalist in wrestling and is considered the future of the UFC, hence the main card spot. He has averaged 11.04 takedowns per 15 minutes and has landed 15 significant strikes in four UFC fights. Brundage lands 1.80 significant strikes per minute, averages 2.69 takedowns landed per 15 minutes and is on a two-fight win streak.
The odds are wide in Nickal's favor as the UFC continues to push him. Brundage is no easy task, and a loss would be detrimental to plans for Nickal. Nickal will win if he can get the big man to the floor. It may be a challenging fight for the 28-year-old, but he could be up to it.
Sporting News prediction: Nickal via submission (round two)
Jiri Prochazka vs. Aleksandar Rakic; Light Heavyweights
Per Bet MGM, Aleksandar Rakic is the -120 favorite, while Jiri Prochazka is the +100 underdog.
Prochazka, a former UFC light heavyweight champion, lands 5.31 significant strikes per minute and has a strike accuracy mark of 55%. In a classic against Glover Teixeira in 2022, he landed 120 strikes. The Czech fighter averages 0.61 takedowns landed. Rakic lands 4.01 significant strikes per minute, has a strike accuracy mark of 50% and averages 0.82 takedowns landed.
It is Rakic's first fight since May 2022 after tearing a ligament in his knee. Prochazka took time off after suffering a right shoulder injury in the Teixeira fight.
Though Prochazka lost following volume shots from Alex Pereira, he is still a technically sound fighter. He will hurt you by any means necessary. Rakic hasn't finished someone since Jimi Manuwa in 2019. The fight may be violent on both ends, but Prochazka can take advantage of Rakic’s leg and have a pace his opponent may not be able to keep up with.
Sporting News prediction: Prochazka via TKO (round three)
MORE: Ranked: The 25 best MMA fighters under the age of 25
Calvin Kattar vs. Aljamain Sterling; Featherweights
Per Bet MGM, Aljamain Sterling is the -165 favorite, while Calvin Kattar is the +140 underdog.
Kattar lands 5.12 significant strikes per minute and has a strike accuracy mark of 39%. He has landed triple-digit shots in four straight fights but absorbs about 7.10, with Max Holloway landing 445 significant strikes against him. Sterling lands 4.73 and has a strike accuracy mark of 52%. "Funk Master" averages 1.97 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, landing 12 in his last five fights. Kattar averages 0.42 takedowns.
If Sterling goes for a simple striking match, like he did against Sean O’Malley, it will be game over for him early. Sterling is also entering a new weight class. However, his new mobility in that class could help him against a striking-heavy Kattar. If he can maneuver a few heavy shots while shooting down and neutering Kattar’s offense on the floor, Sterling may find the right groove to force the fight to go the distance.
Sporting News prediction: Sterling via unanimous decision
Holly Holm vs. Kayla Harrison; Bantamweights
Per Bet MGM, Kayla Harrison is the -450 favorite, while Holly Holm is the +340 underdog.
Holm, a former UFC bantamweight champion, lands 3.21 significant strikes per minute and has a strike accuracy mark of 40%. She rarely gets tagged, absorbing 2.79 shots. "The Preacher's Daughter" averages 0.90 takedowns landed per 15 minutes and has a takedown defense mark of 78%.
Harrison is making her UFC debut. The two-time Olympic gold medalist in judo has six wins via submission and six via knockout, with all but one of her fights being in the PFL. After losing against Larissa Pacheco in 2022, she returned a year later, beating Aspen Ladd. Pacheco and Ladd were considered her first significant tests in MMA.
Holm is known for upsets, as seen against Ronda Rousey. However, she has gone 5-6 with one no-contest since, relying on clinches and far strikes. Harrison has to prove herself against the elite of the UFC but must also worry about a dramatic weight cut. Her last fight was at 150, and she needs to get down to about 135. Harrison could use her ground game to smother Holm if she doesn’t harm herself heading into weigh-ins.
Don’t be surprised if Holm provides an upset. For now, The Sporting News is sticking with Harrison.
Sporting News prediction: Harrison via unanimous decision
Sodiq Yusuff vs. Diego Lopes; Featherweights
Per Bet MGM, Diego Lopes is the -145 favorite, while Sodiq Yusuff is the +120 underdog.
Both are Contender Series alums. Yusuff has proven to be an offensive force, landing 5.72 significant strikes per minute, landing 178 against Edson Barboza. Lopes has landed 2.47 significant strikes in his short time in the octagon, with two straight fights only lasting one round. The latter has been taken down eight times in four fights, while Yusuff has landed two in three contests.
Yusuff has shown signs of brilliance but does fall victim to the takedown game. Lopes has proven to be slippery and can submit or knock out his opponent. The Sporting News believes Lopes can put on an impressive performance that will catch Yusuff sleeping.
Sporting News prediction: Lopes via submission (round one)
MORE: Top 10 women's fights in MMA history
Jalin Turner vs. Renato Moicano; Lightweights
Per Bet MGM, Jalin Turner is the -225 favorite, while Renato Moicano is the +185 underdog.
Turner lands 6.02 significant strikes per minute, while Moicano lands 4.41. On the floor, Moicano averages 1.80 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, while Turner averages 0.88. An edge will be the reach, where Turner has a five-inch reach advantage.
Moicano can take it to the floor, as Turner had trouble against Mateusz Gamrot (four takedowns) in 2023. However, Turner’s size, reach, and striking capabilities may halt any opportunity Moicano has of reaching him. If anything, Turner can reverse and submit Moicano himself. The result appears to be a Turner win, with any ending possible.
Sporting News prediction: Turner via KO (round two)
Jessica Andrade vs. Marina Rodriguez; Strawweights
Per Bet MGM, Jessica Andrade is the -140 favorite, while Marina Rodriguez is the +115 underdog.
A former UFC strawweight champion, Andrade lands about 6.67 significant strikes per minute and has a strike accuracy mark of 50%. Rodriguez, the former rising contender who had her momentum halted by Amanda Lemos, lands 4.77 significant strikes and has a strike accuracy mark of 48%. She averages 0.25 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, while Andrade averages 2.45.
Both are looking to go on win streaks, with Andrade earning a much-needed victory against Mackenzie Dern last time out. Rodriguez has a three-inch reach advantage. If Andrade can land a straight shot, she can punish Rodriguez. However, if the latter can keep her distance and force her to the floor, she may have an edge.
Andrade bullying her is not out of the question, but The Sporting News believes Rodriguez can pull off the upset.
Sporting News prediction: Rodriguez via split decision
Bobby Green vs. Jim Miller; Lightweights
Per Bet MGM, Bobby Green is the -175 favorite, while Jim Miller is the +145 underdog.
Green and Miller are veterans of the octagon. The former lands 6.14 significant strikes per minute, while Miller lands 2.96. Miller averages 1.58 landed takedowns per 15 minutes, while Green averages 1.20. Longevity has been key for both, as Green has fought in the octagon since 2013, while Miller has competed for the UFC since 2008.
Miller is the first fighter to compete at UFC 100, 200, and 300.
WATCH: UFC 300: Alex Pereira vs. Jamahal Hill, exclusively on ESPN+
Green will look to use the jab to his advantage, and while Miller will try and take him down the floor, Green can combat that. It seems the younger Green has the edge. However, Miller has shown resiliency over the last few years. The fight may be tactical, with Miller grinding his way to a win.
Sporting News prediction: Miller via unanimous decision
Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Cody Garbrandt; Bantamweights
Per Bet MGM, Deiveson Figueiredo is the -300 favorite, while Cody Garbrandt is the +240 underdog.
Starting UFC 300 will be a fight between former bantamweight champion Garbrandt and former flyweight champion Figueiredo. The latter will have a slight edge in significant strikes landed per minute (3.08 compared to 3.06). Figueiredo has a strike accuracy mark of 55% (40% for Garbrandt). On the floor, Figueiredo lands 1.65 takedowns per 15 minutes (1.10 for Garbrandt).
Both absorb plenty of strikes, with Garbrandt taking 3.91 significant strikes and Figueiredo absorbing 3.46. The losses for Garbrandt come from his chin, which many compare to glass. If Figueiredo uses his 2.5-inch reach advantage, it could be game over. However, Garbrandt’s unique defense could put a wrinkle in those plans.
Though he has mounted a nice comeback, Garbrandt has a nightmare standing in front of him in Figueiredo. They both strike fast, but Figueiredo may be faster than “No Love.” His wrestling and striking may be enough to put Garbrandt away.
Sporting News prediction: Figueiredo KO (round two)
If you purchase a product or register for an account through one of the links on our site, we may receive compensation. Learn more >
