A rivalry will soon be settled at UFC 292 as Aljamain Sterling defends the UFC bantamweight title against Sean O’Malley on August 19. The fight will take place at TD Garden in Boston.
Airing on ESPN+ PPV in the U.S., it is the first time O’Malley headlines a PPV. The colorful figure looks to fulfill what he believes is his destiny, while Sterling wants to shut him up, as well as those who question his title reign.
The co-main event will see Zhang Weili, a two-time UFC strawweight champion, defend her belt against Amanda Lemos. While aware of the other top contenders at strawweight, Zhang isn’t looking past a dangerous Lemos.
Also on the card, Chris Weidman returns to action, while there will be a fight to determine who wins The Ultimate Fighter lightweight tournament.
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The Sporting News breaks down every fight on the UFC 292 card, with some help from Sports Interaction.
UFC 292 card predictions
Aljamain Sterling (c) vs. Sean O'Malley for the UFC bantamweight title
Per Sports Interaction, Aljamain Sterling is the -235 favorite, while Sean O'Malley is the +170 underdog.
Sterling lands 4.78 significant strikes per minute. He landed 135 against Henry Cejudo, and a combined 159 in two fights against offensive-minded Petr Yan. The two-time NCAA Division III All-American wrestler averages 2.02 landed takedowns per 15 minutes and has a takedown accuracy mark of 45%, landing 12 in four fights.
A Dana White's Contender Series standout, O'Malley lands 7.43 significant strikes per minute and has a 60% accuracy mark. How strong is he? Ask Kris Moutinho, who took the majority of the 230 significant strikes against him in the face. The one thing against O'Malley will be the ground game, as Yan landed six against him.
While Sterling will have a one-inch reach and four-inch height disadvantage, he’s better of against O’Malley than Yan was. Sterling can throw kicks better than Yan, and if he can avoid the striking of O’Malley early, he can utilize his far superior wrestling capabilities. And when Sterling takes an opponent down, he can maintain control, as seen with his control time mark of 1:08:36, the most in bantamweight history.
O’Malley likes a fast pace but often gets cocky. If Sterling can expose him early and trick him down to the floor, he could tire “Sugar” out. “Funk Master” should hear “And Still!”
Sporting news prediction: Sterling via unanimous decision
Zhang Weili (c) vs. Amanda Lemos for the UFC strawweight title
Per Sports Interaction, Zhang Weili is the -360 favorite, while Amanda Lemos is the +260 underdog.
Zhang's a striking wizard. She lands 5.79 significant strikes per minute and has a strike accuracy mark of 47%. "Magnum" landed an astounding 165 against Joanna Jedrzejczyk in 2020 and 69 against her in 2022. Against Carla Esparza, Zhang decimated her with 37 before submitting her. On the ground, Zhang averages 1.97 takedowns landed per 15 minutes and has a 34% accuracy mark.
MORE: How much have Aljamain Sterling and Sean O'Malley made in their careers?
With a 4-1 record in five fights, Lemos lands 4.51 significant strikes per 15 minutes and has a strike accuracy mark of 57%. She averages 1.12 takedowns per 15 minutes and has a takedown defense mark of 81%. The Brazilian hasn’t been taken the distance in a fight since August 2020.
Can the fifth-ranked Lemos get the win? Given recent upsets in title bouts, it's far from impossible. However, Zhang’s striking and ground-based work has proven to be elite. The champion should walk out with the title around her waist following a difficult test.
Sporting News prediction: Zhang via KO (round three)
Ian Machado Garry vs. Neil Magny; Welterweights
Per Sports Interaction, Garry is the -550 favorite, while Neil Magny is the +360 underdog.
Garry has been unstoppable since joining the UFC in 2021, winning three of five fights via TKO. "The Future" lands 6.85 significant strikes per minute and has a 55% accuracy mark, landing 358 significant strikes since his run in the octagon.
Magny replaces Geff Neal. The 36-year-old, owner of the longest fight time (6:17:34) in UFC welterweight history, is 21-9 inside the octagon. In his last four fights, he is 2-2 and averages 3.52 significant strikes landed per minute. He also averages 2.30 takedowns landed per 15 minutes.
While he has initially struggled on the floor, Garry has improved his craft over time. When he lands a strike, it hurts, as seen when he injured the ribs of Chris Curtis in a sparring session. However, as confident as he is, Garry can't get too cocky against this opponent. The Irish fighter should walk out with the win, though he may get tested first.
Sporting News prediction: Garry via TKO (round two)
Da’Mon Blackshear vs. Mario Bautista; Bantamweight
Per Sports Interaction, Mario Bautista is the -220 favorite, while Da'Mon Blackshear is the +170 underdog.
Blackshear, who just beat Jose Johnson on August 12, replaces Cody Barbrandt, who backed out due to undisclosed reasons. "The Monster" lands 3.68 significant strikes per minute and has a 44% strike accuracy mark. He averages 1.76 takedowns landed per 15 minutes and just won his last bout via a Twister.
MORE: SN Exclusive: Aljamain Sterling on fighting Sean O'Malley at UFC 292
Bautista is on a four-fight win streak, winning three of four via submission. He averages 2.91 takedowns landed per 15 minutes and has a takedown accuracy mark of 68%.
It is a fight with plenty of intrigue and unpredictability. Blackshear has proven to take an opponent out at any point and is war ready following his recent bout. Bautista has landed quick shots to take his opponent down and put them to sleep. Regardless where the odds land, it could be a tossup. The Sporting News will side with the fighter on a hot streak and more to lose.
Sporting News prediction: Bautista via submission (round one)
Marlon Vera vs. Pedro Munhoz; Bantamweights
Per Sports Interaction, Marlon Vera is the -215 favorite, while Pedro Munhoz is the +165 underdog in what should be a top-tier scrap at bantamweight.
Vera, 4-1 in his last five, lands 4.09 significant strikes per minute, against 5.30 for Munhoz. The former has the edge in strike accuracy (49% to 43%), while Munhoz has a slight edge in strike defense (57% to 51%). There may not be much to say about it being a ground-based fight (though Vera does have the edge), as the two will swing away.
Munhoz has lost fights against some of the top in the division, while Vera has beaten those same fighters. The only blip on Vera's resume in the last three years was a loss against Cory Sandhagen.
Close to a title shot and having some history with title contender Sean O’Malley, “Chito” Vera will be extra motivated heading into fight night.
Sporting News prediction: Vera via KO (round two)
Chris Weidman vs. Brad Tavares; Middleweights
Per Sports Interaction, Brad Tavares is the -280 favorite, while Chris Weidman is the +200 underdog. This will be Weidman’s first fight since snapping his right fibula and tibia against Uriah Hall in 2021.
The former UFC middleweight champion lands 3.03 significant strikes per minute (3.32 for Tavares), while Tavares has a slight edge in accuracy at 43% (42% for Weidman). The two-time NCAA Division I All-American wrestler averages 3.92 takedowns landed per 15 minutes and has a takedown accuracy mark of 47%. Tavares has an 80% takedown defense mark, but can he halt Weidman, who will have a one-inch height and four-inch reach advantage?
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Will Weidman be wary of going to the ground or even attempting a leg kick thanks to his recent injury? Tavares lands accurate jabs and leg kicks and could handle the potential slack on Weidman’s end. However, Weidman has been training hard and has had time to adjust. Like his walkup song, he “Won’t Back Down” in his return. The Sporting News predicts a massive comeback win for the Long Island fighter.
Sporting News prediction: Weidman via unanimous decision
Gregory Rodrigues vs. Denis Tiuliulin; Middleweights
Per Sports Interaction, Gregory Rodrigues is the -375 favorite, while Denis Tiuliulin is the +260 underdog.
An eight-time National BJJ Champion, Rodrigues lands 6.09 significant strikes per minute (5.35 for Tiuliulin). "Robocop" also has a strike accuracy mark of 55% (42% for Tiuliulin) inside the octagon but absorbs 5.82 significant strikes, something to keep an eye on. Tiuliulin also has a two-inch reach advantage.
Rodrigues' ground game, averaging 2.20 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, along with his power, should be too much for Tiuliulin to handle, as long as he makes no mistakes.
Sporting News prediction: Rodrigues via TKO (round one)
Austin Hubbard vs. Kurt Holobaugh; The Ultimate Fighter lightweight final
Per Sports Interaction, Austin Hubbard is the -180 favorite, while Kurt Holobaugh is the +140 underdog.
Both members of Michael Chandler team, Holobaugh beat Conor McGregor’s Lee Hammond, while Hubbard beat Aaron McKenzie (McGregor) and Roosevelt Roberts (Chandler).
Both have thrived outside the UFC, winning two in a row. Hubbard lands 3.67 significant strikes per minute (4.51 for Holobaugh) and has a strike accuracy mark of 47% (42% for Holobaugh). Hubbard has a strong ground game, averaging 1.35 takedowns landed per 15 minutes (0.97 for Holobagh).
A former Dana White's Contender Series alum, Holobaugh is 0-4 inside the octagon, while Hubbard is 3-4. Given his durability and the oppositions lack of wrestling, Hubbard should walk out with a win for Team Chandler.
Sporting News prediction: Hubbard via unanimous decision
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Brad Katona vs. Cody Gibson; The Ultimate Fighter bantamweight final
Per Sports Interaction, Brad Katona is the -160 favorite, while Cody Gibson is the +125 underdog.
An Ultimate Fighter veteran and winner (2018), Katona beat Carlos Vera and Timur Valiev to advance. He went 1-2 in the UFC in his initial run before being cut and is on a four-fight win streak with Brave CF. In the octagon, Katona lands 3.33 significant strikes per minute, with a strike accuracy mark of 51%. He averages 1.25 takedowns landed per 15 minutes.
Gibson turned pro in 2008 and joined the UFC in 2014. He went 1-3 with the promotion before being released. Outside the octagon, he has a 7-2 record and beat Mando Gutierrez and Rico DiSciullo to advance. "The Renegade" lands 2.47 significant strikes per minute in the octagon and has a takedown average of 1.85 landed per 15 minutes.
Both fought hard to get to his moment. While Gibson has competed in more fights since leaving the UFC, that was also years ago. Katona has the strength, momentum, and durability to outlast Gibson and be crowned The Ultimate Fighter.
Sporting News prediction: Katona via unanimous decision
Andre Petroski vs. Gerald Meerschaert; Middleweights
Per Sports Interaction, Andre Petroski is the -275 favorite, while Gerald Meerschaert is the +200 underdog.
A standout fighter in Art of War Cage Fighting, Petroski is 4-0 in the UFC. He lands 3.64 significant strikes per minute and has a strike accuracy mark of 55%. Th 32-year-old also averages 5.43 takedowns per 15 minutes, landing 16 in four octagon fights.
Meerschaert, with a four-inch reach advantage, is 4-2 since losing against Khamzat Chimaev in 2020. "GM3" lands 3.11 significant strikes per minute and averages 2.12 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. In his last bout, Meerschaert was floored by Joe Pfyer, who only needed 16 seconds of control time to beat him. He needs to improve his 29% defense takedown mark to find an edge or Petroski will take advantage of that and ragdoll him into submission.
Sporting News prediction: Petroski via submission (round one)
Andrea Lee vs. Natalia Silva; Flyweights
Per Sports Interaction, Natalia Silva is the -370 favorite, while Andrea Lee is the +255 underdog.
Both fighters are notorious for their offensive capabilities, with Silva landing 5.47 significant strikes per minute and Lee landing 5.13. Lee will have the four-inch reach and two-inch height advantage. However, what separates the two will be the ground game. “KBG” Lee averages 2.04 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, landing nine in her last four fights. Silva has a takedown defense of 92%, halting Tereza Bleda in her tracks in November 2022.
If Silva can neuter Lee’s ground game, the 26-year-old should walk away with the win.
Sporting News prediction: Silva via TKO (round two)
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Karine Silva vs. Maryna Moroz; Flyweights
Per Sports Interaction, Karine Silva is the -165 favorite, while Maryna Moroz is the +130 underdog.
Impressing on Dana White’s Contender Series, Silva earned her “Killer” nickname by competing all over the MMA scene, winning nine fights via knockout and seven via submission. In the octagon, she's won three straight via submission and averages 2.24 takedowns landed per 15 minutes.
Silva faces a UFC veteran in Moroz with a 6-4 record inside the octagon and 3-1 in her last four. Moroz averages 0.69 takedowns per 14 minutes. She has a two-inch height advantage and a competent striking game, landing 4.19 significant strikes per minute. In five fights, Moroz's landed 387 significant strikes.
Silva rarely makes it out of the first round, which could help but is also a cause for concern, especially with her lack of action inside the octagon. While Moroz can sustain damage, she can dish it out, and her resume speaks for itself. The first fight of the night may see the first upset.
