The biggest event in UFC history is upon us as UFC lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov defends his title against two-weight world champion and MMA superstar Conor McGregor in the main event of UFC 229, which takes place at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada on October 5. Aside from the megafight, the main card features former interim lightweight champion Tony Ferguson facing off with another former champion in Anthony Pettis. A pair of heavyweights jockeying for position as the next in line for a title shot finds Derrick Lewis taking on Alexander Volkov.
The Sporting News staff makes their picks for every fight on the main card.
MORE: Is Conor McGregor the greatest MMA fighter of all time if he beats Khabib Nurmagomedov?
Khabib Nurmagomedov (c) vs. Conor McGregor for the UFC lightweight championship
Andreas Hale
Conor McGregor def. Khabib Nurmagomedov via 2nd round KO
Plain and simple, I don’t bet against Conor McGregor. It’s not because of his mouth, but his discipline and ability inside of the Octagon. Although this is very much a coin flip of a fight, McGregor has a distinct advantage considering that every round begins standing up. He controls distance exceptionally well and the time he spent preparing for Mayweather has only enhanced his devastating striking ability.
As great as Khabib is in grappling, he’s equally as suspect with his striking. Michael Johnson found success early and Al Iaquinta wasn’t completely outclassed. McGregor is light years better than both in the striking department and should use his reach advantage to keep Nurmagomedov from grabbing him and bringing the Irishman into his wheelhouse. It could end at any moment but McGregor’s striking is just too good for Nurmagomedov to overcome.
Mark Lelinwalla
Conor McGregor def. Khabib Nurmagomedov via 4th round KO
Be clear — Conor McGregor is daring to be great by even taking this fight against Khabib. I get that there's personal bad blood here, but coming off of a nearly two-year absence from the Octagon, “Mystic Mac” could have easily taken on an inferior opponent. But he did quite the opposite, heading to the top of the food chain, instead. Obviously, if Nurmagomedov is successful at mauling McGregor, it’s going to be a long night for The Notorious on the ground, where he's not his best. But I see McGregor able to do enough damage striking in the standup to win by stoppage.
Steven Muehlhausen
Conor McGregor def. Khabib Nurmagomedov via 3rd round KO
With all the hype put aside, these two will meet in the Octagon in this classic grappler vs. striker matchup. Being gone for nearly two years should have an effect on the former two-division world champion early on. Nurmagomedov is going to hit and McGregor is going to be taken down.
The fight boils down to who can implement their style and be the most effective. If McGregor can stuff enough takedowns, it's his fight to win as he will nail the champion with his potent left hand. Nurmagomedov has been susceptible to being hit in the past, but not by someone like the Irishman.
McGregor will clip the native of Dagestan and once again be on top of the lightweight mountain.
E Spencer Kyte
Conor McGregor def. Khabib Nurmagomedov via (T)KO
I don’t know that I have ever been as unsure of a pick in all my days of watching fights; that’s who intriguing and compelling this matchup is to me. I can legitimately see McGregor knocking out Nurmagomedov rather easily and quickly, but I can just as easily see McGregor getting taken down and mauled by the unbeaten Nurmagomedov too. Deciding which of those two outcomes is most likely has been a daunting task, but here we go…
Give me McGregor.
Look - Michael Johnson landed on Nurmagomedov and he doesn’t have the power or movement of McGregor. Additionally, trying to crash in and close the distance against “The Notorious” one isn’t a great strategy, since he’s proven (Hello Jose Aldo!) that he’s adept at stepping out and putting you to sleep in a hurry.
I could be completely wrong and I wouldn’t be surprised if that is the case, but with 25 minutes to work and that sharp left always at the ready, I’m taking McGregor to reclaim gold and resuming running things in 2019.
Tony Ferguson vs. Anthony Pettis
Andreas Hale
Tony Ferguson def. Anthony Pettis via unanimous decision
The rebirth of Anthony Pettis is an interesting story but the run that Ferguson has been on has been one of the better stories in the division. Ferguson is a freak of an athlete and is a cardio machine that won’t stop coming. There are some concerns with Ferguson’s striking that give me pause with this pick because Ferguson was rocked several times by Lando Vanatta. Pettis is a far better striker. However, the issue is that Pettis revealed that he ballooned up to 205 pounds after trying to make 145 pounds. It appears that his body might be betraying him and if he doesn’t get Ferguson out of there quickly, he’s going to be in for a long night against an opponent who simply won’t go away. Pettis will be lucky if he’s not stopped late but I’ll go with a decision victory from the former interim champion.
Mark Lelinwalla
Tony Ferguson def. Anthony Pettis via 2nd round submission
Tony Ferguson has been on an absolute roll, winning 10 straight fights. I see this being his 11th consecutive victory and yet another ‘W’ coming by the way of submission. Triangle choke and Petiis taps.
Steven Muehlhausen
Tony Ferguson def. Anthony Pettis via unanimous decision
One would think the former interim lightweight titleholder would run through the former 155-pound champion. Ferguson is on a tear, winning 10 consecutive bouts and looks to be a man on a mission after being stripped of the belt after a freak accident put him out of commission for his scheduled unification bout with Nurmagomedov.
But Pettis comes in with everything to gain and nothing to lose. He's won two of his last three since returning to lightweight and looked like the Pettis of old when the Wisconsin native blew past Michael Chiesa at UFC 226.
While this will be an entertaining fight, it is hard to see Ferguson losing until he gets another crack at UFC gold.
E Spencer Kyte
Tony Ferguson def. Anthony Pettis via unanimous decision
This one is interesting because, on one hand, Ferguson has won 10 straight and looked outstanding doing so, but on the other hand, he’s fought just once in the last two years, is hustling back from a bad injury and is facing someone who looked really, really good last time out. If he hadn’t been on the shelf since beating Kevin Lee last year, I’d pick Ferguson without hesitation, but the layoff and Pettis’ performance against Michael Chiesa has given me pause.
But not enough pause to pick against “El Cucuy” this weekend.
Ovince Saint Preux vs. Dominic Reyes
Andreas Hale
Dominic Reyes def. Ovince Saint Preux via 1st round (T)KO
Dominic Reyes has been on a rampage and is going to have his first real test against Ovince Saint Preux. OSP impressively dispatched of Tyson Pedro in his last outing and has an extremely awkward style to deal with. However, Reyes’ power is real. It’s how he deals with adversity that will be called into question because OSP can be a windmill of strikes and submission attempts if you aren’t careful and poised. I suspect that OSP is going to overlook Reyes and walk into a devastating punch. It may or may not knock him out but follow up strikes or a submission will end the night and etch Reyes’ name into the bigger threats in the 205-pound division.
Mark Lelinwalla
Dominic Reyes def. Ovince Saint Preux via 2nd round TKO
Dominick Reyes is the real deal. And still undefeated after this fight.
Steven Muehlhausen
Dominic Reyes def. Ovince Saint Preux via 1stround TKO
We are going to see how good Reyes is here. He's undefeated in nine fights, winning all but one via stoppage and only one of those wins have gone past the first round. Saint Preux is the classic gatekeeper fighter. He beats everyone ranked at his position or lower and fails to beat the top-tier position.
E Spencer Kyte
Dominic Reyes def. Ovince Saint Preux via (T)KO
I love these kinds of fights, where proven guys take on up-and-coming talents who need to win a fight like this in order to show they’re legit.
While I appreciate the fact that OSP has more UFC wins (11) than Reyes has professional fights (9) and an awkward game that could catch the rising light heavyweight off guard, but I’ve seen Saint Preux get clipped too many to believe that he’s going to be able to survive the offensive flurry that Reyes is going bring right out of the gate in this one.
I think Reyes is the real deal and he shows it here.
Derrick Lewis vs. Alexander Volkov
Andreas Hale
Derrick Lewis def. Alexander Volkov via 2ndround (T)KO
Although Volkov has been excellent since making his UFC debut two years again with four straight wins, I’m not 100% sold on the former Bellator heavyweight champion. Volkov’s biggest win to date was a 4th round finish against Fabricio Werdum, who I can’t decide if he’s washed up or not. Lewis presents a different kind of problem for Volkov and life altering power. If, for any reason, Volkov decides to trade strikes with Lewis – and I suspect he will – he’s going to get caught. Lewis often looks lazy but it’s what lulls his opponents to sleep and Volkov is best advised to stay on his game for all 15 minutes. I just don’t think he will.
Mark Lelinwalla
Derrick Lewis def. Alexander Volkov via 3rd round (T)KO
I see Derrick Lewis doing enough to win by a late-round stoppage.
Steven Muehlhausen
Derrick Lewis def. Alexander Volkov via 2ndround (T)KO
It is hard to make out how good Derrick Lewis is. Do you get the guy who blasted Travis Browne into orbit or the one who put on one of the worst fights in UFC history with Francis Ngannou at UFC 226? Since coming to the UFC, Volkov's won all four of his fights, with his last two coming via stoppage to insert himself into title contention.
We should get an exciting scrap between the two heavy-handed sluggers. However, in the end, Lewis is the pick here.
E Spencer Kyte
Alexander Volkov def. Derrick Lewis via (T)KO
Lewis is a great follow on social media (though his feeds are NSFW) and a proven, dangerous finisher inside the cage, but he’s also fairly one-dimensional and defensively challenged and that doesn’t bode well for him in this one.
Volkov hasn’t gotten enough attention for what he’s already accomplished in the UFC, but I think he’s going to go out and dominate Lewis here and open some more eyes.
MORE: UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor fight date, PPV price, how to watch and live stream
Michelle Waterson vs. Felice Herrig
Andreas Hale
Michelle Waterson def. Felice Herrig via split decision
Herrig is easily one of the most improved fighters in all of the UFC. Even though she had her four-fight winning streak come to a halt at the hands of Karolina Kowalkiewicz, she was very competitive in dropping a split decision. Waterson, on the other hand, has been trying to find her footing since beating Courtney Casey after back to back losses to Rose Namajunas and Tecia Torres. Waterson’s striking may be the difference here and should pull out a close decision but get her on the right track.
Mark Lelinwalla
Felice Herrig def. Michelle Waterson via split decision
Felice Herrig manages to just edge “The Karate Hottie” out by points.
Steven Muehlhausen
Michelle Waterson def. Felice Herrig via unanimous decision
Waterson snapped a two-fight losing streak in a gritty win over Courtney Casey in April. Herrig had her four-fight winning streak broken against Karolina Kowalkiewicz at UFC 223.
Both are good on the ground and have a ton of heart, but Waterson has the striking advantage. That will carry "The Karate Hottie" to the winner's circle.
E Spencer Kyte
Felice Herrig def. Michelle Waterson via unanimous decision
This is pretty much a coin-flip in my eyes and while Waterson is coming off a win and Herrig is coming off a loss, I think Herrig has been the more impressive fighter in recent outings and should get the job done here.
They’re both capable kickboxers and solid scramblers on the ground, so I believe this one comes down to strength and offensive pressure and I give the edge to Herrig in both categories. As long as she comes forward and lets her punches and kicks go without hesitation, I believe the “Lil Bulldog” will get the win in the main card opener.
