Patrick Corbin is one of the best left-handed strikeout artists in MLB.
He had 238 strikeouts in 202 innings this season and did so while posting a very respectable 3.25 ERA with a 3.49 FIP. But the Astros were not intimidated by the Nationals' Game 4 starter on Saturday.
In fact, after George Springer struck out on a somewhat questionable call on a full count to open the game, Houston put five straight runners on base with four singles and a walk. They plated two runners as well.
Coming into the game Carlos Correa was very confident. He was especially confident that Alex Bregman — who had a .000 BABIP entering Game 4 — would have success.
"Mark my words, he's gonna go off," Correa said. And sure enough, Bregman was one of the four players to tally a single in the first.
Patrick Corbin isn't exactly fooling the Houston hitters. Lots of hard contact so far. pic.twitter.com/fqT41c53SX
— Ryan Fagan (@ryanfagan) October 27, 2019
So why did the Astros have so much confidence in the first inning against a guy who had a .227 batting average against this year? Because Corbin has a plan and the Astros knew about it.
And before you get into your theories about the Astros picking up tipped pitches or even filming them, this isn't what we're talking about. What we're talking about was presented very clearly by the creator of Baseball Savant, Daren Willman.
Take a look at Corbin's strikeout locations this season below.
Patrick Corbin's strikeouts this year by location pic.twitter.com/AWkb1MFKEs
— Daren Willman (@darenw) October 26, 2019
Corbin loves to get his Ks on sliders down and into righties, or down and out to lefties, and up with fastballs. And while the Astros got hits in non-strikeout situations, these numbers are pretty indicative of how Corbin attacks hitters. Every single hit by the Astros in the first inning — with the exception of Altuve's — came on a pitch down and in. Altuve's was on a slider that was more middle down.
It was like Houston knew what was coming. And that's because it did. Corbin had a pattern all year long and he used that same pattern in the first inning of Game 4.
But you want an even better indicator that Houston was looking down and in or up with a fastball? After Correa walked to load the bases with one out, Nationals pitching coach Paul Menhart came out to talk to Corbin. The lefty then threw a changeup down and out on the first pitch, a slider in the dirt and another changeup down and out. Robinson Chirinos grounded into a double play to end the inning. He was surprised at the pattern and made an out.
In the next frame, Corbin went 1-2-3 using a lot of stuff away. The Astros knew what was coming to start the game and they exploited it. When Menhart changed the game plan, Corbin started having success. Baseball can often get caught up in analytics and numbers, but oftentimes they can predict what a player or team is going to do.
The Astros predicted exactly what Corbin was going to do and got two runs out of it. Baseball can be surprisingly simple.