Blue Jays 2018 season preview: Grichuk, Garcia, Morales are Toronto's X-factors

Jenn Smith

Blue Jays 2018 season preview: Grichuk, Garcia, Morales are Toronto's X-factors image

Conventional wisdom has the New York Yankees finishing atop the American League East with the Boston Red Sox finishing second and earning the first wild card spot. Upgrades made to other playoff-hopeful teams such as the Los Angeles Angels and Minnesota Twins means that a lot must go right for the Jays if they are to contend for the second wild card spot.

The most obvious and necessary improvement over last season is the team’s health. Aaron Sanchez needs to remain blister-free and put up numbers similar to his 2016 campaign, when he led the American League in ERA at 3.00. Devon Travis, who played in just 50 games last year, must also be healthy and productive atop the Jays’ lineup, where he will serve as a table-setter for the sluggers behind him. Josh Donaldson has to again be the Jays’ best position player without missing 49 games.

There are some less obvious keys to the season, however, that would go a long way to improving this team’s chances of returning to the postseason – or, at the very least, providing the fans with an entertaining season of meaningful baseball.

MORE: Blue Jays 2018 season preview -- Five key questions for Toronto

Randal Grichuk

Right fielder Randal Grichuk was acquired from the St. Louis Cardinals in exchange for reliever Dominic Leone and pitching prospect Conner Greene. The 26-year-old takes over from one of the most prolific Blue Jays of all time in José Bautista.

Bautista came into his own as a hitter during his time in Toronto, cementing himself in Blue Jays’ lore with his Game Five Bat Flip. But 2017 was not kind to Bautista, who struggled mightily at the plate.

AVG OBP SLG R RBI HR K% wRC+ WAR
.203 .308 .366 92 65 23 24.8 80 -0.5

Jose Bautista’s 2017 production values

Last season was Bautista’s worst since he became a full time major league player in 2006, based on strikeout rate and wRC+ and his second-worst season by WAR. In fact, it was the first time Bautista posted a wRC+ below 100 since his first full season with the Jays in 2009. As much as the Jays lacked adequate depth last season, resulting in glove-first guys like Ryan Goins and Darwin Barney taking far too many at-bats, there is no doubt that Bautista’s spot in the lineup was a virtual black hole all season – and one of the reason the Jays scored the fifth fewest runs in the league.

Grichuk was not picked up to be a massive offensive upgrade, as he is not known to hit for average or to get on base at a high rate. He is a power hitter who strikes out a lot, owning a 29.9% K rate and .488 slugging percentage over the course of his career.

The good news is that the Jays don’t need Grichuk to put up Josh Donaldson-type numbers. He simply needs to provide greater production than the Jays got from right field last season in order to improve the offense. Is that feasible? Here is a quick glance at what two projections systems think Grichuk’s season will look like.

Stats AVG OBP SLG R RBI HR K% wRC+ WAR
Steamer .240 .291 .482 60 72 25 29.9 99 1.5
ZiPS .246 .293 .505 69 81 29 31.3 105 1.8

Projected production values for Randal Grichuk’s 2018 season

Only four position players posted a WAR above 1.0 last season, so already Grichuk is projected to provide greater overall value. There is also further reason for optimism. Grichuk’s power ought to translate well at the Rogers Centre, and he has put in a lot of work this offseason with respect to vision training as an attempt to lower his strikeout rate. Add the fact that he will provide better defense than Bautista did last season, and there is no doubt that Grichuk represents improvement to the Jays’ everyday lineup.

Jaime Garcia

The Blue Jays began last season with a starting rotation of Aaron Sanchez, Marcus Stroman, Marco Estrada, J.A. Happ and Francisco Liriano. The lack of starting rotation depth became glaringly obvious when Sanchez, the Jays’ best starter from 2016, made just eight starts due to ongoing blister issues. His injury and the trade of Liriano to the Astros forced Joe Biagini into the rotation along with a revolving door of replacement starters.

Both Biagini and Liriano made 18 starts for the Jays last season and posted the following numbers.

Stats GS IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABI ERA FIP WAR
Biagini 18 119.2 7.30 3.16 1.13 .305 5.34 4.27 1.4
Liriano 18 82.2 8.06 4.68 1.20 .327 5.88 4.73 0.8

2017 statistics for Joe Biagini and Francisco Liriano as Jays’ starters

To address the lack of starting depth, the Jays acquired veteran Jaime Garcia on a one-year, $8 million contract that includes a team option for 2019. The left-hander had his share of injuries over the years and while he may not duplicate his best seasons of 2011 and 2015, he doesn’t have to. Garcia just needs to be a solid fifth starter upon who posts league-average numbers. Based on the projections, Garcia ought to provide exactly that.

Stats GS IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABI ERA FIP WAR
Steamer 23 130.0 7.03 3.27 1.19 .302 4.47 4.50 1.5
ZiPS 25 141.0 7.34 2.94 1.34 .310 4.53 4.53 1.6

Projections for Jaime Garcia’s 2018 season

As with Grichuk, there is reason to believe that Garcia may fare somewhat better than projected. In 13.2 innings this spring, Garcia surrendered 11 hits but struck out 12, posting a 0.878 WHIP and a 12.00 SO/W ratio. He’s managed to use all his pitches effectively while throwing with the same velocity as when he was at the height of his career. As a ground ball pitcher, he should fare well at the home run-friendly Rogers Centre (assuming decent infield defense behind him).

More importantly, perhaps, is what Garcia represents in terms of depth. With Garcia slotted as the fifth starter, Biagni sets up sixth on the depth chart if a member of the rotation misses time due to injury. This eliminates the likes of Chris Rowley and Nick Tepesch from making anything more than perhaps an emergency spot-start.

Kendrys Morales

No matter how well designated hitter Kendrys Morales fares at the plate, he will not be able to match the production of his predecessor, Edwin Encarnacion. The point is moot: unless the Jays are willing to eat a good chunk of his salary, Morales is not a trade candidate.

What the Jays need is for Morales to have somewhat of a bounce-back season. Given that he is paid strictly to hit, Morales was a below-average player for the Jays in 2017.

AVG OBP SLG R RBI HR K% wRC+ WAR
.250 .308 .445 67 85 28 21.7 97 -0.6

Kendrys Morales’ 2017 production values

One of the biggest problems for Morales last season was his elevated ground ball rate: 48.4% of batted balls were hit on the ground compared to his career norm of 46.9%. He also hit to the pull side with greater frequency. Factor in Morales’ lack of speed on the base paths and he made it very easy for teams to employ a defensive shift against him. The result? Morales hit into 22 double plays last season, sixth-most in the majors.

Can Morales provide greater offensive value this season? Here are the projections.

Stats AVG OBP SLG R RBI HR K% wRC+ WAR
Steamer .256 .321 .467 61 71 23 21.5 106 0.3
ZiPS .262 .318 .463 62 90 25 21.0 104 0.8

While the upside is marginal, Morales is projected to go from slightly below-average to slightly above-average based on wRC+. As with Grichuk and Garcia, there is reason to believe that Morales can provide better offensive value over last season. He entered spring training having lost fat and gained muscle, and worked with hitting coach Brook Jacoby to hit the ball in the air more often.

The performances of Grichuk, Garcia and Morales will not be the deciding factors in the Jays’ playoff chances, all three can still provide greater value than the Jays received from their respective positions last year. For a team that will have to fight and claw their way to the postseason, every improvement over last season is necessary.

Jenn Smith