Padres star Fernando Tatis Jr. is scheduled to make his 2023 regular season debut tonight against the Diamondbacks after serving an 80-game suspension for PED use. The last time we saw Tatis Jr. play in a major league regular season game was Oct. 3, 2021. He missed all of '22 season because of a fractured wrist and suspension, and bettors are likely eager to lay down some action on both Tatis and the Padres, who are -145 favorites tonight on the moneyline against the Diamondbacks, according to BetMGM.
Below, we'll look at some player prop bets involving Tatis Jr. that bettors can wager on for tonight's series opener between San Diego-Arizona.
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Best Fernando Tatis Jr. player prop bets for Thursday's Padres-Diamondbacks game
Fernando Tatis Jr. home run prop: Over/under 0.5 home runs
- OVER 0.5 home runs: +225
- UNDER 0.5 home runs: -350
To no one's surprise, Tatis Jr. has the best odds to hit a home run tonight over the likes of Manny Machado (+310), Juan Soto (+400), Christian Walker (+400), Nelson Cruz (+450), Ketel Marte (+500), and Xander Bogaerts (+550). As of right now, we don't know where Tatis Jr. is hitting in the Padres' lineup, but he's coming off an impressive stint in the minors where he slashed .515/.590/1.212 with seven home runs and 15 RBIs in eight games with Triple-A El-Paso.
Tatis Jr. doesn't have any career at-bats against Diamondbacks starter Ryne Nelson, but Nelson has given up two home runs this season (one to righthanded hitters). Additionally, righthanded hitters are hitting .211 against Nelson through three starts.
Betting advice: As tempting as it might be, bettors would be better off staying away from a public HR prop for Tatis. They should instead explore his hits or stolen base props that are easier to cash and still return decent value.
Fernando Tatis Jr. RBI prop: Over/under 0.5 RBI
- OVER 0.5 RBI: +120
- UNDER 0.5 RBI: -155
If bettors don't want to play Tatis Jr.'s home run prop, they should check out his RBI prop, which is sitting at +120 for him to knock in at least one.
In 30 career games against the Diamondbacks, Tatis Jr. is slashing .368/.435/.868 with 15 home runs and 33 RBIs. Bettors could also look at Tatis' doubles prop (+250), especially in a ballpark such as Chase Field, where it's not hard to find a gap.
Betting advice: At the top of the order, Tatis Jr. might not get a lot of RBI opportunities unless he hits a home run. If San Diego can turn over the lineup once or twice tonight, Tatis might get something to hit, making this a worthwhile wager.
Fernando Tatis Jr. stolen base prop: Over/under 0.5 stolen bases
- OVER 0.5 stolen base: +425
- OVER 0.5 stolen base: -800
If bettors want to sprinkle some cash on Tatis Jr.'s stolen base prop, they have nothing to lose and everything to gain at +425 odds. In eight minor league games, Tatis Jr. had two stolen bases and wasn't caught stealing. Padres manager Bob Melvin said in spring training that there would not be any restrictions on the 24-year-old, who underwent a second operation last October for a wrist injury.
Looking at tonight's starter for Arizona, no one hasn't attempted a stolen base on Nelson this season, but we have to believe Tatis Jr. will test Diamondbacks catcher Gabriel Moreno (if he's starting), who has given up three stolen bases out of seven attempts this season.
Betting advice: At +425 odds, it would not be a shock to see Tatis Jr. try to jumpstart the offense, especially if he can get on base from the leadoff spot. Bettors shouldn't put down a full unit, but a half unit or less should do the trick.
