Cincinnati outfielder Nick Senzel, the No. 2 pick in the 2016 MLB Draft, makes his debut for the Reds on Friday night against the San Francisco Giants.
Senzel, who hit .310 at Triple-A Louisville last season, had eight games at the level this season before the call-up. It comes at the right time. The Reds need him now — and they are going to need even more in the future from one of their top prospects.
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As far as Cincinnati debuts go, it's on the level of Homer Bailey, the 2004 first-round pick who made his debut on June 8, 2007 with the same level of fan-fare. It's in the range of Jay Bruce, a 2005 first-round pick who received a standing ovation at the Great American Ball Park before his first at-bat on May 27, 2008.
Bruce and Bailey went on to become key pieces on Reds playoff teams in 2010, 2012 and 2013. That's the long-term hope for Senzel, and Cincinnati needs him to come through in more ways than one.
The pressure won't be as pronounced this season. Cincinnati is in last in the NL Central (13-18), and aside from Jesse Winkler, the team's outfield options have struggled at the plate.
Yasiel Puig, the high-profile pickup in the offseason, is hitting .178 with 30 strikeouts in 107 at-bats. Scott Schebler is hitting .127. Matt Kemp is on the IL. Senzel fulfills a need this season, and perhaps his presence jump-starts those other bats in the outfield.
Senzel will hit No. 2 in his debut, between star first baseman Joey Votto and Winkler. Puig will be in the cleanup spot.
Senzel also can play second or third base, but the Reds have starters there in Eugenio Suarez and Scooter Gennett, who was placed on the 60-day IL. Senzel might get a few starts there, but his immediate home will be in the outfield.
That is the short-term forecast. Senzel's impact, however, goes well beyond 2019. He will be counted on to be a better long-term investment than Bruce and Bailey.
It would validate the Reds' minor-league farm system. Bailey and Bruce did that – at least for a while. First-round picks Drew Stubbs (2006), Todd Frazier (2007) and Mike Leake (2009) all were part of that run, too. Billy Hamilton— their 2008 second-round pick — and Aroldis Chapman, who was signed from Cuba in 2010, were more viral sensations in their rookie years.
Bailey and Bruce got the most attention, however, because they were first-round picks and top prospects. Senzel will be propped up against those careers down the line.
Bailey enjoyed a solid two-year stretch from 2012-13, where he had a 3.58 ERA and averaged 183.5 strikeouts. He signed a six-year, $104 million contract in 2014, and it got worse from there. Bailey compiled a 1-14 record with a 6.08 ERA for the Reds in 2018. He moved on to Kansas City this season.
Bruce averaged 30 homers and 93 RBIs from 2010-13. He also averaged 156 strikeouts in that four-year stretch. He's jumped around with the Mets, Indians and Mariners since leaving Cincinnati.
Given the hype they generated with their debuts, the overall reaction to Bruce and Bailey is mixed at best. Chapman and Hamilton are gone, too.
Senzel will have to battle those same expectations, but he will find that the honeymoon period will draw comparisons to Bruce and Bailey. Expect another warm ovation tonight.
Senzel also will set the table for the next big prospect to arrive – although the arrival of 2017 first-round pick Hunter Greene is on hold as he recovers from Tommy John surgery in April. By the time Greene arrives, Senzel should be an established starter for the Reds.
That's the plan for a franchise still trying to regain its footing in the NL Central after five consecutive seasons. Everybody else in the division entered Friday's action with a .500 record or better.
Senzel is one of the pieces that should help Cincinnati get back in that mix down the line. Friday's debut is a moment Reds' fans can be excited about.
Senzel offers the promise of more of these moments ahead.
