The message, from a friend and former co-worker, popped into my DMs in early October.
“Serious question: Is Steve Jeltz's career WAR of -0.3 the lowest ever for a Donruss Rated Rookie? Someone's done this research, right?”
I could not find the answer to his first question, which means the answer to the second question is no (as far as I’ve been able to tell, at least). There has been Rated Rookie research, of course. Enjoyable, fun Rated Rookie research. On the players and the iconic logo.
But nothing that answered the Steve Jeltz question. So here we are (after the postseason, a move and buying a new house delayed the research).
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Steve Jeltz does not have the lowest career WAR for any Rated Rookie. He does not, in fact, even have the worst WAR (Baseball-Reference formula, bWAR) in the 1985 Donruss set. In fact, of the 20 players Donruss tabbed as “Rated Rookies” for the 1985 set, nine of them finished with a negative career bWAR, and one guy never even appeared in a game.
Some rookies were more rated than others, it seems.
To find the answer to my friend’s question, I looked up the career bWAR for every single Rated Rookie in Donruss sets from 1984 to 1993. Yes, that’s a bit of an arbitrary window, but I think you’ll appreciate those parameters. See, 1984 was the first year Donruss — which produced its first set in 1981 — introduced the Rated Rookie subset. And in 1985, the iconic Rated Rookie logo we all know and love made its debut. That logo stayed the same until the 1993 set, when red and white were added to the blue color.
For the 1994 set, the iconic logo disappeared in favor of some other abomination, so we’re drawing the line at 1993. When you hear “Rated Rookie” you think of the iconic logo, right? It’s returned, thankfully, in recent years, for baseball, basketball and football, but we are singularly focused on the first decade of baseball Rated Rookies. Cool?
Let’s start with an overview, and then we’ll go with a year-by-year summary and then, if you want to scroll all the way down, we will give you the career bWAR for every single Rated Rookie from 1984 to 1993. Because if you've read that far anyway, I feel pretty confident you’ll want to keep digging.
There were 258 Rated Rookies from 1984 to 1993. Well, to be accurate, there were 255 individuals named as Rated Rookies, but Danny Tartabull (1985-86), Sandy Alomar, Jr. (1989-90) and Alex Sanchez (1989-90) were Rated Rookies in two years. Donruss picked 20 players each of the first seven years, then expanded the numbers after breaking the sets into Series I and Series II.
Here are some overall highlights from 1984 to 1993:
Best career bWAR: Greg Maddux, 104.8
Worst career bWAR: Kim Batiste, -4.4 (You're off the hook, Jeltz)
Best cumulative career bWAR for a year: 1987, 457.6
Worst cumulative career bWAR for a year: 1986, 51.8
Hall of Famers: Seven
Negative career bWAR: 69
Career bWAR over 10: 93
Career bWAR over 25: 46
Career bWAR over 50: 13
The number that jumps out from that list is the 69 Rated Rookies who finished with a negative career bWAR, right? Projections are difficult, folks. Still, though, to completely miss on that many players you’re picking as Rated Rookies doesn’t exactly say good things about Donruss’ picking process.
Compared with the 69 players who finished with a negative career bWAR, only 46 finished with a career bWAR over 25. Now, a player with a bWAR around 25 had a nice, solid career that was typically pretty lengthy: Benito Santiago (27.3), Greg Gagne (26.3), Delino DeShields (24.4) and Tino Martinez (29.0).
MORE: Career WAR of every Rated Rookie from 1984 to 1993
And, I’ll bet you’re wondering how many Rated Rookies won the Rookie of the Year award. Here’s the list: Jose Canseco (1986), Benito Santiago and Mark McGwire (1987), Gregg Olsen (1989), Sandy Alomar Jr. (1990), Mike Piazza and Tim Salmon (1993). Considering these sets were chosen and printed the winter before, that’s actually pretty solid, nailing both RoYs in 1987 and 1993, and getting seven of the possible 20 winners.
OK, now let’s go with the year-by-year highlights and thoughts. Here's the list of bWAR for every single Rated Rookie from 1984 to 1993.
1984 Donruss Rated Rookies
Total RR: 20
Hall of Famers: Zero
Best career bWAR: Tony Fernandez, 45.3
Worst career bWAR: Tommy Dunbar, -1.6
Negative career bWAR: Four
Career bWAR over 10: Eight
Career bWAR over 25: Four
Career bWAR over 50: Zero
Cumulative career bWAR: 276.4
Thoughts: Joel Skinner was, chronologically, the first Rated Rookie. The first 26 cards in the set were Diamond Kings — another Donruss staple subset — and Skinner was card No. 27. It’s interesting to me that Skinner’s bWAR was exactly 0.0. And it’s not like Skinner, who made his MLB debut for the White Sox at 22 years old in 1983, just barely played in the big leagues. He saw action in 564 games spanning nine seasons, serving as a reliable backup catcher for the ChiSox, Yankees and Indians.
There were no Hall of Famers in this inaugural Rated Rookie class, but there were several players who made solid impacts on the game. Tony Fernandez, as you see above, along with Sid Fernandez (who was with the Dodgers when he was chosen, but traded to the Mets in December 1983), Joe Carter, Kevin McReynolds, Greg Gagne, Ron Darling, Dick Schofield and Tim Teufel. The list was chosen by New York Daily News baseball scribe Bill Madden, who somehow left Yankees rookie Don Mattingly off his list of Rated Rookies.
1985 Donruss Rated Rookies
Total RR: 20
Hall of Famers: Zero
Best career bWAR: Danny Tartabull, 23.3
Worst career bWAR: Steve Kiefer, -1.6
Negative career bWAR: Nine
Career bWAR over 10: Two
Career bWAR over 25: Zero
Career bWAR over 50: Zero
Cumulative career bWAR: 51.8
Thoughts: This was, by far, the worst collective group of Rated Rookies. There were 13 Rated Rookies in this first decade who compiled individual bWAR numbers better than this group’s collective total of 51.8 — all seven Hall of Famers, and six guys who haven’t (yet) reached Cooperstown. Danny Tartabull, who was also a Rated Rookie in the 1986 set, led the pack, at 23.3, and Shawon Dunston had a very nice career, too. But, again, Donruss missed huge names — Kirby Puckett, Roger Clemens and Orel Hershiser all had rookie cards in the set, but none were deemed Rated Rookies — that could have taken this group near the top.
Of the 20 who were given the designation, nine — yes, nine! — finished with a negative career bWAR, and that doesn’t even count the only Rated Rookie never to appear in a big-league game. Russ Stephans was a catching prospect in the Royals organization, and he was called up to the bigs for a week during the 1983 season, but never saw action in a game. He was batting .290 for Omaha in 1984, but a dislocated shoulder in August proved disastrous. Stephans played only 45 Triple-A games the rest of his career.
1986 Donruss Rated Rookies
Total RR: 20
Hall of Famers: Zero
Best career bWAR: Fred McGriff, 52.6
Worst career bWAR: Bob Kipper, -1.2
Negative career bWAR: Five
Career bWAR over 10: Nine
Career bWAR over 25: Four
Career bWAR over 50: One
Cumulative career bWAR: 263.8
Thoughts: The “zero” Hall of Famers will eventually turn to one, when Fred McGriff gets his spot in Cooperstown by a veterans committee. He’s certainly deserving, and the primary victim of a crowded BBWAA ballot during his span of eligibility. There are lots of other All-Star players from this group, including Paul O’Neill, Andres Galarraga and Todd Worrell. Kal Daniels looked like a superstar early in his career; in 182 games for the Reds in 1986-87, Daniels hit .330 with a 1.004 OPS, 32 homers and 41 stolen bases for the Reds. Knee issues, though, ended his career a month after his 29th birthday.
The key Rated Rookie from this set, though, was clearly Jose Canseco. The close-up headshot, with that faint mustache and air of Canseco confidence was displayed prominently at every baseball card shop and every baseball card show across the country in that era. He was the cocky superstar who did things we didn’t think possible for normal humans, and of course it turns out he had a little help. But, yeah, that card was iconic.
1987 Donruss Rated Rookies
Total RR: 20
Hall of Famers: One (Greg Maddux)
Best career bWAR: Greg Maddux, 104.8
Worst career bWAR: Ken Gerhart, -0.6
Negative career bWAR: Five
Career bWAR over 10: 11
Career bWAR over 25: Eight
Career bWAR over 50: Three
Cumulative career bWAR: 457.6
Thoughts: This has long been one of my favorite set designs, even if the black borders made it impossible for little kids to keep the cards in mint condition. The Rated Rookie subset was full of dynamic stars: Bo Jackson! Mark McGwire! Benito Santiago! Greg Maddux (and his bad-idea mustache)! Devon White! Rafael Palmeiro! So many memorable names, and that’s even before we get to guys like B.J. Sufhoff, Randy Myers, Greg Swindell and Terry Steinbach. There’s a reason the 1987 Rated Rookies had the highest bWAR for any Rated Rookie group in this first decade, even higher than the 1991-93 sets that had between 33 and 45 RRs.
But, yeah, that 1987 crop was full of rookies. Know who else had rookie cards in the 1987 Donruss set, but didn’t rate Rated Rookie status? A couple of Barrys — Bonds and Larkin — along with stars such as David Cone, Mike Greenwell, Kevin Brown and Chuck Finley. So even though they hit on a lot of youngsters, they missed a lot, too.
1988 Donruss Rated Rookies
Total RR: 20
Hall of Famers: One (Roberto Alomar)
Best career bWAR: Roberto Alomar, 67.1
Worst career bWAR: Gary Thurman, -2.8
Negative career bWAR: Five
Career bWAR over 10: Six
Career bWAR over 25: Five
Career bWAR over 50: One
Cumulative career bWAR: 257.3
Thoughts: The 1987 Donruss design was great, but the 1988 design was just really blah. And it was a blah set overall. Even as I’ve opened packs recently, other older packs have elicited a sense of wonderful nostalgia. But the 1988 Donruss packs reminded me why I started souring on collecting cards as a kid.
Anyway, the Alomar rookie was a good choice for the subset, and the Rated Rookies hit on Mark Grace, Al Leiter, Lance Johnson and Jack McDowell, too. But Tom Glavine was a non-rated rookie in the 1988 Donruss set. Same thing with Gregg Jefferies, who wasn’t a Rated Rookie in the 1988 set, but somehow was in the 1989 set. One of my favorites was the Jeff Treadway Rated Rookie, not because of the player but because the street name for my childhood house was Treadway.
True story: When I collected as a kid, sometimes I would cut the Rated Rookie logo out of the card of a bad rookie and glue it onto the card of a good rookie, a guy who I thought deserved to be a Rated Rookie. I searched in vain for at least one example before publishing this story, but my parents sold a lot of my old cards (with my blessing) many years ago. So pretty sure the chap who bought those boxes was at least momentarily excited to have a Tom Glavine Rated Rookie or Barry Larkin Rated Rookie.
1989 Donruss Rated Rookies
Total RR: 20
Hall of Famers: Two (Ken Griffey, Jr., Randy Johnson)
Best career bWAR: Randy Johnson, 103.5
Worst career bWAR: Steve Searcy, -2.0
Negative career bWAR: Four
Career bWAR over 10: 10
Career bWAR over 25: Four
Career bWAR over 50: Three
Cumulative career bWAR: 399.3
Thoughts: The true challengers for “Most Iconic Rated Rookie” from this first decade is a short list, when you’re talking about the impact the card had at the time. You have Jose Canseco from 1986, Bo Jackson or Mark McGwire from 1987 and the card that gets my vote, the 1989 Ken Griffey Jr. Rated Rookie, card No. 33. This wasn’t, of course, the Upper Deck rookie card that captured the hobby’s attention like few others ever have, if any. But not everyone had the money to bust through Upper Deck packs regularly, and lots of us still craved the Griffey rookie cards. Neither Topps nor Score had a Griffey rookie that year — has there ever been a worse oversight? — and the Fleer packs typically cost a bit more than the Donruss packs. So kids like me scrounged up as many Griffey Rated Rookies as possible.
Good times. I still a half-dozen or so, and opened up a couple of others when I bought a box of 1989 Donruss early this fall. But Griffey wasn’t the only exciting player in this set. I loved the two rookie closers, Tom Gordon and Gregg Olsen. Sandy Alomar Jr. was family royalty. Gary Sheffield was electric, even though he was cast as the “bad attitude” guy. And there was that tall rookie from the Expos, too. You know, the one who looked like he was annoyed at the photographer who was taking his picture for the card.
1990 Donruss Rated Rookies
Total RR: 20
Hall of Famers: Zero
Best career bWAR: Robin Ventura, 56.1
Worst career bWAR: Scott Coolbaugh, -0.8
Negative career bWAR: Four
Career bWAR over 10: 11
Career bWAR over 25: Five
Career bWAR over 50: One
Cumulative career bWAR: 293.9
Thoughts: I don’t care what anyone else thinks: I loved the paint-splatter design then, and I still love it now. I’ve opened one-and-a-half boxes of 1990 Donruss in the past few months, mostly because my 16-month-old daughter loves opening these packs and immediately disassembling the puzzle cards. I even bought her a box for Christmas, so where do I pick up my Dad of the Year trophy?
The crop of Rated Rookies was solid, even though nobody wound up in the Hall of Fame. I was a big fan of the Expos tandem of Marquis Grissom and Delino DeShields, and Steve Avery and Ben McDonald seemed Cooperstown-bound back then. I thought Eric Anthony was going to be a star, mostly because one of his rookie cards had a line like, “Anthony’s power is a launching pad that would make NASA jealous” and that always amused me.
But the best card from this set, without a doubt, was the Juan Gonzalez error card. It wasn’t your run-of-the-mill error card. No, sir. This mistake was a doozy. It was a reverse-negative image — who even knew what that meant back then? — that showed Gonzalez batting left-handed, with his uniform number 19 obviously backward. I’ve found two of the REV-NEG Gonzalez cards in the boxes I’ve opened recently, and both have made me irrationally happy.
Both versions of the infamous 1990 Donruss Juan Gonzalez Rated Rookie.
— Ryan Fagan (@ryanfagan) January 6, 2020
The REV-NEG version, on the right, and the REG-NEG version.
(yes, I made up “REG-NEG”) pic.twitter.com/uv8tmZu4vF
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1991 Donruss Rated Rookies (Series I and II)
Total RR: 40
Hall of Famers: Zero
Best career bWAR: Chuck Knoblauch, 44.8
Worst career bWAR: Mark Lewis, -2.6
Negative career bWAR: Nine
Career bWAR over 10: Nine
Career bWAR over 25: Five
Career bWAR over 50: Zero
Cumulative career bWAR: 319.1 (200.4 Series I, 118.7 Series II)
Thoughts: Just not much here. Donruss split its 1991 offering into Series I (blue border) and Series II (green border) and expanded the total offering to 770 cards. It’s not quite as weak as the 1988 set, but it’s not much better. Series 1 featured Moises Alou, and the solid Cardinals rookie tandem of Ray Lankford and Bernard Gilkey, but even with Mo Vaughn, Tino Martinez, Jeff Conine and Chuck Knoblauch, there just wasn’t much to be excited about. Sigh.
1992 Donruss Rated Rookies (Series I and II)
Total RR: 45
Hall of Famers: One (Jim Thome)
Best career bWAR: Jim Thome, 72.9
Worst career bWAR: Kim Batiste, -4.4
Negative career bWAR: 13
Career bWAR over 10: 15
Career bWAR over 25: Five
Career bWAR over 50: Two
Cumulative career bWAR: 412.0 (173.6 Series I, 238.4 Series II)
Thoughts: Donruss waded into the “premium” market for this set, upgrading the card stock, adding color photos on back and charging 99 cents per standard no-longer-actually-wax pack. Of the 784 cards in the set — again, broken into Series I and II — 45 cards were given the Rated Rookie designation.
Two of those 45 players tallied a career bWAR above 50; Jim Thome — a skinny third baseman on this particular card — wound up in the Hall of Fame and Kenny Lofton should be there one day (he was dropped off the BBWAA ballot after his first year, victim of a too-crowded ballot, but that’s a rant for another day). On the other hand, 13 players had a career bWAR in negative numbers, and 13 others failed to top the 5.0 bWAR mark. One of those 13 with a negative number was uber-prospect Todd Van Poppel (-0.4). The right-hander of Texas prep legend actually wound up having a longer-than-average career (11 seasons in the big leagues) but finished with a career 5.58 ERA and 1.549 WHIP.
One other notable name from this Rated Rookie class produced an identical -0.4 bWAR, too: Pat Mahomes. Yep, the father of Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes. The elder Pat, like Van Poppel, pitched 11 seasons in the bigs, and his ERA/WHIP was similar (5.47 and 1.594). Both right-handers pitched for six different big league teams, too.
1993 Donruss Rated Rookies (Series I and II)
Total RR: 33
Hall of Famers: Two (Mike Piazza, Chipper Jones)
Best career bWAR: Chipper Jones, 85.2
Worst career bWAR: Manny Alexander and Melvin Nieves, -2.3
Negative career bWAR: 11
Career bWAR over 10: 12
Career bWAR over 25: Six
Career bWAR over 50: Two
Cumulative career bWAR: 392.1 (190.3 Series I, 201.8 Series II)
Thoughts: This is the year Donruss changed the base blue color on the Rated Rookie icon, replacing it with a red-white-and-blue fade. It was not an improvement, but much better than what the company did starting in 1994 (sigh). And this was also the first time the Rated Rookies were not in sequential card number order. Instead, they were sprinkled throughout the 792-card set (again, split into Series I and II).
Anyway, two future Hall of Famers is a good place to start for a Rated Rookie checklist. Mike Piazza’s RR appeared in Series I, and Chipper Jones — who just looks so damn young — was in Series II. Lots of other players with long, solid careers in this final group, too: Tim Wakefield, Tim Salmon, Javy Lopez, Jeromy Burnitz, Brett Boone and Pedro Astacio. Also, the Rated Rookie debuts for expansion teams in Colorado (Dave Neid) and Florida (Nigel Wilson).
