In what some consider to be unprecedented times, it's always nice to have something you can rely on — like a trade between the Mariners and Rays.
Jerry Dipoto made his 16th different trade with Tampa in his nearly nine years with the Mariners on Thursday night, and it might be the biggest yet. Seattle landed former postseason hero and All-Star outfielder Randy Arozarena in a four-player deal, adding an impact bat to the middle of its light-hitting lineup.
Previous trades between the Mariners and Rays included Logan Morrison in 2015, Drew Smyly in 2017, Alex Colome in 2018, Mike Zunino in 2018 and Luke Raley in January. That means it's little surprise that the first truly significant deal before this year's trade deadline involved these two franchises.
T-Mobile Park already looks good on you, @RandyArozarena 🤩 pic.twitter.com/v9kbZGiT4T
— Seattle Mariners (@Mariners) July 26, 2024
How did the Mariners and Rays fare? Here are the grades for each side in the Arozarena trade.
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Randy Arozarena trade grades
Mariners grade: A
- Mariners receive: OF Randy Arozarena
The Mariners' offense ranked among the worst in baseball even before Julio Rodriguez and J.P. Crawford went down with injuries in the last week. While both are expected to return this season, there was likely no path to Seattle staying afloat without making a major addition to the lineup.
If Arozarena was a rental, this deal would be viewed much differently. He's not the missing piece this season, with so much more work to do if the Mariners want to put a competent offense on the field. Arozarena can, however, be a major upgrade in the years ahead. He won't be a free agent until after the 2026 season, and the thought of Rodriguez and Arozarena holding down the offense next season should give Mariners fans some hope that the lineup won't be so painful to watch moving forward.
Don't let Arozarena's disappointing numbers this season fool you. After a brutal first two months, he's hitting .284 with a .903 OPS since the start of June. No, that doesn't erase such a poor start to the year (he carried a .158 AVG into June), but the Mariners have three full seasons they can look at to realize that wasn't the norm for Arozarena.
From 2021-23, Arozarena was about as steady as any hitter. He posted an OPS+ between 120-130 in all three seasons, solidly above the league average of 100, and is on track for his fourth consecutive season of at least 20 home runs. That doesn't make Arozarena an elite hitter by any means, but for a team with a 93 OPS+, he's a meaningful upgrade.
The Mariners traded two high-reward players, both of whom were 2023 draft picks, but turning fourth- and sixth-round picks into an above-average major league hitter in just a year is great business by Dipoto, Seattle's president of baseball operations. Aidan Smith and Brody Hopkins weren't necessarily prospects the franchise was banking on, and turning their early success into a long-term offensive centerpiece shouldn't have Dipoto with many regrets.
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Rays grade: C+
- Rays receive: OF Aidan Smith, P Brody Hopkins, player to be named later
The initial public reaction to the Rays' haul seemed to be disappointment, and in some ways that's understandable. Tampa didn't land anyone who ranked in the Mariners' top 10 prospects, according to MLB Pipeline. That likely would have changed soon, though. Smith was a fourth-round pick a year ago, and Hopkins didn't make his professional debut until this year. Their stocks are rising, and the Rays are buying two lottery tickets and betting that their instant success is a sign of what's to come.
This is a real risk for Tampa. Hopkins has pitched well in the minors this season, with a 2.90 ERA and 95 strikeouts through 83.2 innings, but he's a 22-year-old in single-A who has battled control issues all the way back to college. The Rays are betting on their development system, which does have a strong track record.
Smith is the most intriguing piece of the deal, though he's also far from a sure thing given he just turned 20 and hasn't played above single-A. He's hitting .284 with nine home runs and a stellar .402 OBP this season, hitting 26 doubles in 77 games. The Mariners gave him an over-slot deal to break his commitment to Mississippi State, and that's looking like a wise decision all-around.
Rays fans who are underwhelmed have a case. Hopkins and Smith are still seemingly a ways away, and plenty can go wrong when there are so many hurdles to clear to reach the majors.
Beyond that, quality hitters with multiple years of control are supposed to come at a premium. There aren't many impact bats available at the deadline, let alone bats who are locked in through 2026. While Arozarena has had a tough year, he's been resurgent for nearly two months and has the track record to prove his April and May were likely more of a fluke than anything.
If you need proof that this is a seller's market, the Nationals landed their new No. 6 prospect and a top-40 draft pick for scuffling reliever Hunter Harvey earlier in July. The Rays might be enamored with the potential of Hopkins and Smith, with another player also on the way, but fans might have a hard time grappling with the reality Tampa didn't land more of a sure thing for the type of player that is typically so hard to find in a midseason deal.
