There was talk when Paul Skenes entered the 2023 MLB Draft that the LSU ace might already be big-league ready by the time he was drafted.
Skenes powered the Tigers to a national championship with a 1.69 ERA and 209 strikeouts to just 20 walks in 122.2 innings of work. He wound up being selected first overall, surpassing teammate Dylan Crews who had been the favorite for most of the pre-draft process to go No. 1.
Skenes spent more time working in the minors than many initially expected. He raced up to Double-A by the end of the 2023 season, and spent seven starts in Triple-A in 2024 with a 0.99 ERA as he worked up his pitch count.
Skenes debuted against the Cubs on May 11, and largely carved up Chicago before giving up two hits in the top of the fifth, both of which came around to score when a reliever came in for the rookie.
MORE: How tall is Paul Skenes?
There is still little doubt among evaluators that Skenes is headed for stardom. He is a consensus top three prospect in the sport, and possesses the kind of arsenal that can't be taught in the minors.
What about his pitch mix makes him so special? Here's what you need to know, based on pitch information from Baseball Savant.
Paul Skenes pitch mix
Fastball
The fastball is Skenes' most-used weapon. It is part of what made him stand out so much while pitching at LSU.
Skenes throws a fastball that averages in the upper-90s, and after his first start — during which he threw only 33 four-seamers — he averaged 100.1 mph. It is easier to average that high velocity when he's limited on his total pitches, but that is still a high mark to reach.
During his debut, he threw a total of 17 fastballs at or above 100 mph. That was the most for any starting pitcher in a single game, topping Hunter Greene's 16 from March 30. Only relievers Mason Miller (21 on May 8) and Justin Martinez (19 on May 3) have thrown more 100-plus mph fastballs in an outing this season.
The pitch features a ton of spin with 98 percent active spin rate and 18.6 inches of total movement. It also has 15.9 inches of vertical drop (minus-32 percent vs. average) and 14.5 inches of horizontal break (77 percent break vs. average), which make it a pitch that features not just high-octane speed but plenty of movement.
The fastball might be the fastest for any starting pitcher in the majors by the time the season is over, and with the movement it features, the pitch could wind up being the best fastball by any starting pitcher in the league.
MORE: Why did Ronel Blanco receive a suspension?
Slider
Skenes at times could be a two-pitch pitcher in LSU in large part because he didn't need much more than that. He has a slider that earned near top-of-the-charts grades by evaluators and it was his primary out-pitch when facing overpowered college batters.
That slider remains his go-to off-speed pitch, though he now has another top offering to mix in as well. The slider averaged 85 mph in his start against the Cubs, and is widely expected to be a mid-upper-80s pitch in the big leagues. He threw it 23 times (27.4 percent of his total pitches).
His slider has 10.2 inches of horizontal break (77 percent vs. average) and had 32.4 inches of drop (minus-11 percent vs. average), making it a hard-breaking slider without as much drop as the sweepers that have become more common among starters.
As far as breaking pitches go, that is Skenes' primary offering. But he's got another off-speed pitch that has garnered plenty of headlines.
Splinker
Some pitchers throw a splitter. Others throw a sinker. Skenes has a splinker, a pitch that has also been used by Twins closer Jhoan Duran.
Pitch-tracking has classified the offering as a splitter, which is typically a slower pitch that features a heavy dip. A sinker is a fastball variant that is slightly slower than a traditional four-seamer, but has more drop to it, eliciting more ground-ball contact. It's a favorite of pitchers that try to force weak contact.
Skenes' splinker averaged 94.7 mph against the Cubs and featured 31.4 inches of vertical drop and 13.8 inches of horizontal break. Neither of those figures are great, but they're also being compared to a more traditional, slower splitter. When it comes to velocity, Jose Soriano's split-finger average of 93.8 mph is classified as the fastest in the sport. Skenes has nearly a full mph over that.
In his debut, no pitch had a higher whiff rate than the splinker, which had a swing-and-miss rate of 58.3 percent — the fastball was next at 26.7 percent — though batters also had a blistering 66.7 percent hard-hit rate on the pitch.
Skenes said he did not throw the splinker as often in college, but has refined it since reaching the pros to where it has become a top offering.
"It's just been throwing it," Skenes said, per MLB.com. "That's the only work I've had to do on it. The shape's always been there, just learning how to pitch with it."
The pitch has the potential to be among the nastiest in baseball. Few starters have successfully thrown a splinker, and it is a major part of what has made Duran one of the sport's top closers. If Skenes can harness it fully as a starter, it will only add to his ferocious repertoire.
Changeup
The remaining two pitches are not major parts of Skenes' arsenal, though he can throw them when needed. The first is a changeup.
Skenes threw the changeup five times against the Cubs, only 6 percent of his total pitches. The pitch averaged 88.2 mph and had 31.6 inches of vertical drop (2 percent vs. average) and 16.7 inches of horizontal drop (13 percent vs. average).
The changeup can be a useful pitch for some, particularly when facing opposite-handed hitters. But if Skenes primarily opts for the splinker in those plate appearances, he'll likely only need to use the changeup as an occasional surprise.
Curveball
Skenes didn't rely on his curveball much against the Cubs. He busted it out only twice in his debut (2.4 percent). The pitch was his slowest, averaging 82.1 mph with 44.7 inches of drop (minus-9 percent vs. average) and 8.7 inches of horizontal break (minus-5 percent vs. average).
That will likely be a pitch used mostly against right-handers. Skenes will likely use it to keep hitters honest and prevent them from sitting on his slider or splinker in putaway counts. But it still appears to be a pitch most likely reserved for limited usage.
