LSU needs to find a way to quiet a Florida offense that is hitting on all cylinders. It has just the guy for the job — if he's available.
The Gators exploded for a College World Series-record 24 runs and six home runs, while tying the CWS record with 23 hits, in a 24-4 rout of the Tigers to even the best-of-three College World Series finals at a game each. On Monday, the two teams will face off in a winner-take-all matchup (7 p.m. ET, ESPN).
But the Tigers have an X-factor on their side: Paul Skenes. Considered to be a generational pitching prospect, Skenes throws in the triple-digits with ease, spins an unhittable slider and offers a standout changeup to keep hitters off balance. Oh, yeah, he does that with some of the best command and control of any pitcher in college baseball.
The problem? Since June 17, he has thrown 243 pitches, reaching at least 120 in winning outings against Tennessee and Wake Forest that helped LSU get this point. He pitched against the Demon Deacons on June 22, when he threw 120 pitches in eight innings.
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There was no way he would pitch in Game 1 against Florida after pitching two days prior, and he was made unavailable for Game 2 — there was no need for him with the game becoming so lopsided. But could he pitch in Game 3, in what would be his final collegiate outing, as he looks to help his team win its first national championship since 2009?
Here's what you need to know about his status for Game 3:
Will Paul Skenes pitch vs. Florida in Game 3?
LSU coach Jay Johnson was noncommittal after his team's Game 2 defeat about Skenes' status for Game 3, saying instead the team will evaluate all pitching options Monday before the game.
Jay Johnson said once again #LSU has a process to go through before it determines the availability for Paul Skenes and other pitchers tomorrow.
— Wilson Alexander (@whalexander_) June 25, 2023
However, during the third inning of the game, Johnson told the ESPN broadcast that Skenes will "probably be in this game at some point."
No MLB pitcher in 2023 has thrown 120 pitches or more this season, let alone done it on four days' rest as Skenes did against Wake Forest. It would be a tremendous health risk to throw more pitches in a nine-day span than the 243 he has already racked up.
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And Skenes needs to make a business decision. He is expected to go in the top two in the 2023 MLB Draft, and putting more pitches on his arm could jeopardize his health before he officially turns pro. Though he undoubtedly wants to contribute to his team winning a championship, Skenes also has to consider how pitching again after two high-volume outings on short rest could impact his arm ahead of the draft.
If Skenes is used, it would most likely be for a shorter stint. Though there will be a temptation to allow him to pitch longer, his effectiveness could certainly wane the longer he pitches.
The other big question for the Tigers will be whether Thatcher Hurd is available. Hurd pitched three innings on June 19 and three innings on June 22 against Wake Forest. He allowed just one run and four hits total, with four walks and six strikeouts. He's considered one of the top draft prospects in 2024 and has turned his season around after a pair of rough outings in mid-April.
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Johnson and the Tigers will feel the pressure to pull out all the stops. LSU's bullpen has been effective in the NCAA Tournament and College World Series, but its pitching staff as a whole struggled with inconsistency during the regular season.
And with the way Florida is capable of hitting, the Tigers need as much help as they can get to keep the Gators contained in Game 3.
