Yankees predictions 2022: Why New York won't be as bad as everybody thinks this season

Edward Sutelan

Yankees predictions 2022: Why New York won't be as bad as everybody thinks this season image

Yankee fans imagined what it might be like to watch Corey Seager take advantage of the short porch in right. They thought about Justin Verlander lighting up the radar gun pitching as the team's No. 2 starter. They imagined Carlos Correa joining Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton to establish the new Murderer's Row.

Instead, the big names in free agency signed elsewhere. Seager will be a Ranger. Verlander is back in Houston. Correa will be the shortstop for the Twins. The result is an offseason that, at best, Yankee fans are calling a disappointment and, at worst, are calling it a disaster.

But there is still plenty of reason for optimism in the Big Apple. The Yankees return one of the best power-hitting lineups in the sport and boast a pitching staff that ranks among the league's best. The Sporting News' projection model sees them as having an 5.2 percent chance to win the World Series, sixth in the American League.

Why do the Yankees have sleeper potential in 2022? The Sporting News breaks it down.

MORE: Full 2022 MLB season projections

Why the Yankees won't be as bad as everybody thinks

Before we dive too deeply into the Yankees' 2022 campaign, let's take a look back at the 2021 season.

New York finished the year with a 92-70 record, identical to that of the division rival Red Sox, but Boston held the tiebreaker and was able to host the AL Wild Card Game. The Red Sox jumped all over Gerrit Cole in the first three innings and piled on late to win the game 6-2 and eliminate the Yankees from the postseason.

The early exit marked the third time in four years that the Yankees failed to make it past the American League Division Series.

Most teams would take a 92-70 record and a trip to the playoffs, but the Yankees aren't most teams, and the year was viewed as a letdown. Here's why 2022 is poised to be different.

Pitching will be even better

The Yankees had the sixth-best ERA and FIP last year at 3.76 and 3.90. Cole was a Cy Young finalist, the rest of the rotation was reliable and the bullpen was phenomenal. In 2022, the pitching might be even better.

Cole was the unquestioned ace of the staff, but lacked the second star-caliber pitcher most playoff teams have today. Here's a glimpse at how the six main starting pitchers performed in 2021.

Pitcher Innings pitched ERA FIP
Gerrit Cole 181.1 3.23 2.92
Jordan Montgomery 157.1 3.83 3.69
Jameson Taillon 144.1 4.30 4.43
Domingo German 98.1 4.58 4.43
Nestor Cortes 93.0 2.90 3.78
Corey Kluber 80.0 3.83 3.85

Montgomery and Taillon pitched well and established that they belong in the rotation longterm. But German continued to struggle with home runs, while Cortes pitched past the sixth inning only twice in 14 starts. Kluber now pitches for the Rays.

But the Yankees will be getting a major weapon to add to the rotation in 2022: Luis Severino. The 28-year-old starter returned to appear in four games out of the bullpen in 2021 after recovering from Tommy John surgery that sidelined him for most of 2019 and all of the shortened 2020 season. But in his only two seasons in the majors, he's proven he's got the potential to be one of the sport's best pitchers.

Year Innings pitched ERA FIP
2017 193.1 2.98 3.07
2018 191.1 3.39 2.95

Those two years could rival Cole's standout 2021 season. The question will be whether he can return to that level. Severino's fastball averaged 97.6 mph in both 2017 and 2018, according to Fangraphs, and his slider averaged more than 88 mph. However, in his return from surgery, his fastball averaged just 95.3 mph and his slider was at 85.4 mph.

But on March 20, Severino averaged 97.5 mph on his fastball and 86.9 on his slider. He hit a max of 98.7 mph, according to Baseball Savant. In his next start, he averaged 97.3 on the fastball and 85.9 on the slider.

There is certainly going to be an innings limit on Severino after his return from surgery. But if his stuff is back up to where it has been in the past, he gives the Yankees a second ace and a real weapon in the postseason behind Cole. There aren't many teams in baseball that have the starting pitchers to matchup against that one-two punch.

Even if teams get past Cole and Severino, they would then have to deal with that bullpen, which returns key arms in Aroldis Chapman, Jonathan Loaisiga, Chad Green, Clay Holmes and Lucas Luetge.

From top to bottom, this is the best pitching staff in the American League East.

Josh Donaldson will thrive in Yankee Stadium

Yankee fans wanted to see Correa on the left side of the infield. But don't sleep on the move to acquire Josh Donaldson.

Donaldson isn't getting any younger, but to this point, he hasn't let age impact him too much. Last year with the Twins, he launched 26 home runs and posted a slash line of .246/.352/.475. That's not the eye-popping .297/.371/.568 slash line he posted in 2015 for the Blue Jays when he won MVP, but it's also no slouch performance.

It is especially a positive when compared with the Yankees' production at third a season ago. Last year, Yankees' third basemen combined to slash .243/.303/.390 with 29 home runs and a Fangraphs WAR of 2.5. That WAR had them as only the 17th-best group in the league. Donaldson's WAR last year was 2.2.

There's also reason to believe Donaldson will do even better with the Yankees than he did with the Twins. For one thing, he's likely to see better pitches now that he's no longer the focal point of the offense. And for another, Yankee Stadium offers a more hitter-friendly environment than Target Field. Baseball Savant grades Yankee Stadium as the 12th-best park in the majors for right-handed batters to hit home runs, while Target Field graded out as 20th.

Donaldson slashed only .229/.339/.410 with 10 home runs at home. He slashed .265/.364/.539 and hit 16 home runs on the road. His HR/FB rate at home was 14.7 percent, but 22.2 percent on the road.

And the benefits can be seen just by overlaying Donaldson's spray chart at home in 2021 over Yankee Stadium.

Josh Donaldson spray chart
Pybaseball

There are at least three additional home runs for Donaldson in Yankee Stadium in 2021 than there were at Target Field. That number might be even larger if some of the hits that bounced off the wall travel over the shorter porches in Yankee Stadium. According to Baseball Savant, Donaldson would have had 33 home runs had he played at Yankee Stadium.

He also will now be playing more often in Orioles Park in Camden Yards, Fenway Park, Tropicana Field and the Rogers Centre. Orioles Park (second) and Rogers Centre (10th) both rank as top 10 places for right-handed batters to hit home runs, while the lowest of the four is Tropicana Field, which ranks 21st. In the AL Central, he more often played at Guaranteed Rate Field (fifth), Progressive Field (18th), Comerica Park (23rd) and Kauffman Stadium (29th).

This could be a year for Donaldson to return more to the 30-plus homer seasons he had been accustomed to earlier in his career.

Edward Sutelan

Edward Sutelan Photo

Edward Sutelan joined The Sporting News in 2021 after covering high school sports for PennLive. Edward graduated from The Ohio State University in 2019, where he gained experience covering the baseball, football and basketball teams. Edward also spent time working for The Columbus Dispatch and Cape Cod Times.