MLB playoff clinching scenarios for Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Mariners in AL wild-card race

Tom Gatto

MLB playoff clinching scenarios for Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Mariners in AL wild-card race image

A lot still needs to be settled in MLB on the final Sunday of the 2021 regular season. Three postseason races are going down to the wire: two, for the wild cards in the American League; the other, for the NL West championship.

And if everything breaks right, we'll have chaos beyond Game 162. Four AL teams have a shot at those wild-card berths as they enter play Sunday.

Sporting News takes you through the Sunday scenarios as the baseball drama cranks all the way up:

AL wild card standings

Team W L GB
Red Sox 91 70 -
Yankees 91 70 -
Mariners 90 71 1
Blue Jays 90 71 1

Where do they stand?

The Red Sox and Yankees are tied for the top spot; the Blue Jays and Mariners are a game behind.

What's at stake?

The last two open playoff spots in the majors. Boston and New York are in control at 91-70. Toronto and Seattle are chasing at 90-71. Two of these teams will meet in the wild-card game for the right to face the Rays in the ALDS, but so much can happen in the days leading up to it.

MORE: Updated playoff bracket, magic numbers as of Oct. 2

If all four teams finish tied after Sunday — the Yankees and Red Sox would have to lose, and the Blue Jays and Mariners would have to win, for that to happen — MLB will hold a first-of-its-kind set of tiebreakers. Here's how the matchups will be determined, from MLB.com:

The clubs would choose/receive A, B, C and D designations. On Monday, Oct. 4, Club A would host Club B and Club C would host Club D. The winners of those two games would be the Wild Card teams and would face each other in the ballpark of whoever had the superior head-to-head record.

The team with the best overall winning percentage against the other three teams gets first choice of which club it wants to be (A, B, C or D). In this case, that's the Red Sox. The Blue Jays and Yankees would pick next. The Mariners don't have a choice in which team they would be as the fourth-place club in this group. That means they'll likely have to travel east right after playing in Seattle on Sunday.

If just three teams are tied for the two spots, then Club A would be at home vs. Club B on Monday. The winner would become the first wild card. The loser would play at Club C on Tuesday. The winner of that game would be the second wild card, and the wild-card game would be moved back. Head-to-head records would determine who gets the first pick.

MORE: Playoff scenarios entering the weekend  

If three teams are tied for the second spot, Club A would host Club B on Monday. The winner of that game would host Club C on Tuesday. The winner of the second game would move on to the wild-card game, which again would be moved back.

If two teams are tied for the second spot, then there would be a one-game tiebreaker on Monday. The team with the better head-to-head record would host it. The winner would advance to the wild-card game.

If two teams clinch wild-card berths but are tied (that can only be the Red Sox and Yankees with 92 wins each), then the wild-card game would be in Boston because the Red Sox won the season series 10-9.

Got all that?

Who do they play?

Yankees vs. Rays, 3:05 p.m. ET; Red Sox at Nationals, 3:05 p.m. ET; Blue Jays vs. Orioles, 3:07 p.m. ET.

How will they play it?

It's all hands on deck for the final Sunday, but the Red Sox may be in the best spot pitching-wise with Chris Sale starting. The onetime ace has been solid in his return from Tommy John surgery. The Nats will counter with rookie Joan Adon, who will be making his MLB debut. 

MORE: Why the Jays would be the scariest team to face in playoffs

The Yankees have Jameson Taillon lined up to face Tampa Bay's Michael Wacha, although Taillon left his last start early with an ankle injury.

Toronto will have ace Hyun-Jin Ryu on the hill against Baltimore's Bruce Zimmermann. Ryu has a 15.58 ERA over his last three starts.

Left-hander Tyler Anderson will go to the mound first for the Mariners. He'll be opposed by LA rookie Reid Detmers. 

NL West championship

Where do they stand?

The Giants lead the Dodgers by one game.

What's at stake?

Avoiding the wild-card game, mostly. The rivals go into the final day with 106 and 105 wins, respectively; they've clinched the most wins by a 1-2 combo in baseball history. They've also clinched playoff berths. But they don't want to play a one-game season on Wednesday against the Cardinals, even though the game will be at home.

MORE: Injured Kershaw not optimistic about October return

If the teams are tied after Sunday (the Giants would have to lose and the Dodgers would have to win for that to happen), then they'll play a one-game tiebreaker Monday in San Francisco for the division title. The loser will face the Cardinals in the wild-card game.

Who do they play?

Giants vs. Padres, 3:05 p.m. ET; Dodgers vs. Brewers, 3:10 p.m. ET.

How will they play it?

The Giants will send right-hander Logan Webb to the mound against San Diego rookie right-hander Reiss Knehr. Webb is wrapping up a breakthrough season (2.93 ERA, 150 strikeouts in 141 1/3 innings before Sunday). Giants manager Gabe Kapler won't hesitate to go to his bullpen if Webb struggles, however.

The Dodgers will give the ball to right-hander Walker Buehler, who was LA's ace until the Dodgers acquired Max Scherzer at the trade deadline. As if Buehler needed any more motivation, he could win the NL ERA title Sunday, jumping over Scherzer and Milwaukee's Corbin Burnes. Buehler comes in with a 2.49 ERA, while Scherzer is at 2.46 and Burnes is at 2.43 after his two-inning stint Saturday night. The Brewers will start Brett Anderson in what is expected to be a bullpen game for Milwaukee.

Tom Gatto

Tom Gatto Photo

Tom Gatto joined The Sporting News as a senior editor in 2000 after 12 years at The Herald-News in Passaic, N.J., where he served in a variety of roles including sports editor, and a brief spell at APBNews.com in New York, where he worked as a syndication editor. He is a 1986 graduate of the University of South Carolina.