MLB free agency rumors: Donaldson, Blue Jays consider options as market shifts

Ian Hunter

MLB free agency rumors: Donaldson, Blue Jays consider options as market shifts image

So you're saying there's a chance?

Even though the Blue Jays find themselves in a precarious situation with pending free agent third baseman Josh Donaldson, the current free agent freeze in baseball could help Toronto and its star slugger move towards a contract extension.

Seeing what transpired with the frigid free agent market this offseason, nine-figure paydays are suddenly less certain for soon-to-be free agents like Donaldson, who hits the open market following this season. Players destined to earn hundreds of millions of dollars as free agents are settling for less -- or in the case of J.D. Martinez, Eric Hosmer and Yu Darvish -- haven't signed at all yet.

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So what happens to Donaldson, regarded as one of the best players in baseball after four consecutive Top 10 MVP finishes? The Jays could let him walk at the end of his current contract, or perhaps now is the time for the Jays to come in with a fair-market offer to sign Donaldson, especially if the All Star is concerned about the free agency climate next winter.

At a recent Pitch Talks event in Toronto, Blue Jays GM Ross Akins said, “We have come up with a clear walkaway that we would be willing to commit to him" when it comes to tabling a potential contract extension for their superstar third baseman.

With an existing position player core featuring players in their early-to-mid 30's, it is apparent why the Blue Jays would not have interest in extending Donaldson (a player entering his age 32 season) into his late 30's. Teams are shying away from inking big-name players in their thirties to nine-figure deals.

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If the Blue Jays are genuinely interested in bringing Donaldson back, this stagnant free agent market just bought them a better shot at re-signing Donaldson long-term. Where it may have taken a six or seven-year deal to make sure Donaldson remains in Toronto, perhaps now it only takes a four or five-year contract. Either way, Donaldson is going to be paid handsomely.

The Blue Jays are an organization at a crossroads in 2018. With Donaldson potentially off the books and plenty of promising young prospects in the farm system, 2019 may be “year one” of the rumoured rebuild in Toronto.

 

However, by extending Donaldson, the Blue Jays could pry their window of contention open for a little while longer. Having him around to bridge the gap until the Blue Jays’ top prospects make their mark would not only ease the transition, it would help keep fans in the stands. Despite a disappointing 76-86 record in 2017, the Blue Jays boasted the best home attendance in the American League. Even with a subpar product on the field, Blue Jays fans still supported a team which finished in fourth place.

Donaldson, who has 111 home runs, 300 RBI and the 2015 American League MVP trophy on his ledger in three years with the Blue Jays, is a major reason the fans keep coming out to watch the Jays.

Unless the Jays have an immediate plan to make up for the loss of an MVP-calibre player, it's difficult to envision this team being a contender in the near future without Donaldson. He may be close to reaching that dreaded aging curve, but when healthy, Donaldson has been a true difference-maker for the Blue Jays since his arrival in Toronto.

Perennial MVP's don't exactly grow on trees. True superstars like Donaldson don't come around very often, which may incline the Blue Jays to try and extend him.

 

Conversely, if there was a year for Donaldson to accept a reasonable contract extension from the Blue Jays, this seems to be it. Considering the suppressed free agent market, the appeal of a guaranteed deal from the Blue Jays versus the allure of watered-down free agency may prove to be too tempting to pass up for Donaldson.

More often than not during the last two years, players who opted to go to market haven not hit the jackpot.

Edwin Encarnacion is a recent example. Last year, the Blue Jays reportedly offered him a four-year/$80 million contract extension. He turned it down, hit the open market and ultimately signed a three-year/$60 million deal with the Cleveland Indians. Encarnacion left an extra year of security and an additional $20 million on the table by refusing the Blue Jays’ deal and opting to become a free agent.

At the time, most would agree Encarnacion made the correct decision to test free agency. In retrospect, the Blue Jays not only offered him a fair market deal, they went above market to secure his services for four years. Last year, the market for Encarnacion was limited to a handful of teams, whereas the demand for a player like Donaldson will have a wider scope. He's slightly younger than Encarnacion, more versatile and comes with a bigger pedigree and a better track record.

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Since the Blue Jays were willing to pay fair market value for Encarnacion, who's to say they won't do the same for Donaldson? If the Blue Jays’ front office offered Encarnacion four years and $80 million, why not go five or six years for Donaldson in the $115-$135 million range? Encarnacion’s proposed deal would’ve taken him to his age 37 season; a hypothetical five-year contract extension would also take Donaldson to the end of his age 37 season.

If there’s one position player on the Blue Jays roster who can dramatically impact their playoff chances, it’s Donaldson. Not that he’s expected to continually produce MVP-calibre numbers into his late 30’s, but it feels like a missed opportunity if the Blue Jays squander this opportunity to extend their best player.

As it stands, a five-year deal may seem like a lowball offer for one of the best talents in baseball. However, if the free agent market continues to play out as it has, players like Donaldson may end up settling for much less than they anticipated in free agency.

Rather than wade into the uncertainty of free agency, the safer play for Donaldson is to stick around in Toronto and accept a reasonable contract extension. That's not to say he should accept any contract offer from the Blue Jays, but if their contract to Encarnacion is any indication, the Blue Jays are serious about hanging onto their superstars.

Ian Hunter