It has become something of a cycle. The Rays develop a good pitcher. That pitcher enjoys success while the good fortunes of the team ebb and flow. The Rays trade that pitcher for a package of prospects when the team’s fortunes ebb too far and the pitcher’s contract starts to get too expensive.
Time is a flat circle, and it may be time for the ritual to take place once again, this time with Chris Archer at the center of the baseball pentagram. The Rays are reportedly open to moving their marquee players in the name of lowering payroll. While Archer isn’t the most expensive player on the roster, he is almost certainly the most valuable. Given that the pitching market this winter gets rather sparse apart from Shohei Ohtani and Yu Darvish, Archer represents a rather attractive alternative.
FAGAN: Chris Archer not the only top starter who could be dealt
Because he has as many as four remaining years of control (two guaranteed years and two team options) at a very affordable price, as well as the need for the Rays to effectively sell the move to their fans, Archer will not come cheap in a trade. Here are some of the teams that need a pitcher of Archer’s caliber, and could potentially afford him.
Brewers
The Brewers represent the most obvious match. They’re reported to be interested in acquiring a front-line starter, and understandably so. Milwaukee’s rotation is not a strong point of the roster, and that’s before even taking into account that Jimmy Nelson will miss at least a few months. Archer fits in perfectly, and would form a rather formidable duo with Nelson in a playoff series.
GARCIA: Why the Brewers could push hard for Jake Arrieta
Milwaukee also has one of the best farm systems in the game. The Brewers should easily be able to send any number of their impressive minor league outfielders and a pitching prospect for Archer. The Cubs are not the unbeatable force they were in 2016, and with the Brewers on the rise, Archer would be a fine weapon with which to attack the NL Central title.
Cardinals
The St. Louis rotation isn’t what it used to be. Adam Wainwright isn’t what he used to be, and the pitchers beyond Carlos Martinez all have question marks of their own. The Cardinals are apparently focused on acquiring Giancarlo Stanton, and if they succeed it’ll probably take them out of the running from making a second major trade.
The St. Louis farm is capable, but not the endless source of depth it once was. If Stanton eludes them, the Cardinals may seek to buy a bat on the free-agent market and refocus their efforts on Archer.
Twins
Thad Levine will need to do as much as he can to keep pace with Cleveland. Given that the Minnesota rotation is rather sparse beyond Ervin Santana, a trade for Archer would do worlds of good for the Twins. Archer and Santana would represent two quality starters, and the rotation would be even stronger if Jose Berrios builds on the gains he made toward the end of the season.
The addition of a cheaper back-end starter would make the group even stronger. Minnesota would likely have to part with players such as Stephen Gonsalves and Nick Gordon to make this happen, but it would be worth it.
Astros
Houston just won the World Series, so the Astros aren’t exactly hurting in many departments. Their rotation is quite strong with Justin Verlander and Dallas Keuchel leading the way. Why push resources into another starter?
Because dominance is not a vice. It’s hard to win the World Series multiple times with the same group. The addition of Archer would make the Astros even more dangerous and a force to be reckoned with in a playoff series. Having Lance McCullers or Charlie Morton as your fourth starter in the playoffs is quite a luxury. The Astros are already champions. Archer could help them become a dynasty.
MORE: Ranking the 10 best relievers on the market
Dodgers
Conversely, the Dodgers fell just short of the promised land. Los Angeles is an unquestionably strong team, and it has much to sort out when it comes to the starting staff. Clayton Kershaw, Rich Hill and Alex Wood are locks. Beyond them, though, are questions. Kenta Maeda performed well as a reliever, and though he may open the year in the rotation, his role is flexible. Hyun-Jin Ryu, Brandon McCarthy and Scott Kazmir all have trouble staying healthy for extended periods. Then there’s the matter of prospects such as Walker Buehler knocking on the door, and whether LA tries to bring Darvish back.
There’s much to sort out, but the Dodgers have an incredibly deep farm from which to deal, and Archer’s smaller salary wouldn’t impede Los Angeles much from trying to get under the luxury tax.
Braves
Atlanta is something of a unique entry on this list. The Braves aren’t quite ready to contend just yet, but they’re well on their way, and the NL East is relatively weak outside of Washington. However, the Braves are just about ready to start taking the next step, and Archer could help them in that quest.
The Braves may have the best farm in all of baseball, even with the loss of Kevin Maitan and other young international prospects. Their system is loaded with impressive young arms, and Tampa has been known to have a liking for pitching prospects. Alex Anthopoulos could easily deal a few of them for someone of Archer’s caliber.
The addition of Archer and another player or two could easily turn the Braves into a sleeper Wild Card pick, if Anthopoulos decides the time is right to contend.
FOSTER: Scandal-stained Braves must send strong message to fans
Cubs
Jake Arrieta is almost certainly departing for another team in free agency, which means there will be a major hole in the Chicago rotation. Given Tom Ricketts’ deep pockets, this sounds like a job for Darvish, but Archer would also be an excellent fit. The Cubs still have a tiny bit of prospect depth from which to deal, but they would likely have to move a piece or two off the big-league roster (Kyle Schwarber, Ian Happ, and/or Addison Russell) to make it happen.
Rays
Of course, the Rays could simply decide to keep Archer and try to contend. Tampa Bay isn’t really all that bad of a team. In fact, the Rays are probably a few acquisitions away from making a run at a Wild Card. They still boast an admirable core of talent in Archer, Evan Longoria, Kevin Kiermaier and Alex Colome, with many quality secondary players. Spending restrictions will always hamper them, but a few upside players (Zack Cozart and Carlos Gonazlez, perhaps, as named in our free-agent predictions) could turn them into a team to be feared.
The decision to trade Archer would likely be the open move in a full-scale teardown. There’s little point in trying to make a feeble show of contention after trading away an ace, and Longoria’s name has also surfaced in trade rumors in recent weeks. The Rays stand at a crossroads. How they choose to proceed will have major ramifications for the baseball landscape.