MLB Playoff Picture: Odds, predictions to make 2018 postseason

AccuScore

MLB Playoff Picture: Odds, predictions to make 2018 postseason image

After the All-Star break is a great time to see where MLB teams stand in the playoff picture and look at rest-of-season forecasts to see who has the best probabilities of making the postseason according to AccuScore simulations.

Projected American League standings

(All projections based on records through the All-Star break.)

Team Proj. record Div. odds (%) Playoff odds (%)
AL EAST
Boston Red Sox 105.3-56.7 86.71 100
New York Yankees 98.8-63.3 13.29 99.2
Toronto Blue Jays 79.9-82.2 0 0.8
Tampa Bay Rays 78-9-83.1 0 0.58
Baltimore Orioles 61.2-100.9 0 0
AL CENTRAL
Cleveland Indians 88.8-73.2 90.33 90.56
Minnesota Twins 81-81 9.66 10.25
Detroit Tigers 68.1-93.9 0.01 0.01
Chicago White Sox 65.7-96.3 0 0
Kansas City Royals 52.7-109.3 0 0
AL WEST
Houston Astros 100.6-61.4 92.27 99.58
Seattle Mariners 91.8-70.2 7.23 79.32
Oakland Athletics 85.9-76.1 0.41 15.64
Los Angeles Angels 82.8-79.2 0.09 3.94
Texas Rangers 72.7-89.3 0 0.04

Before the season the most probable teams to reach playoffs in the AL were the Indians, Astros, Yankees and Red Sox. Each team has played over 90 games and our projection hasn’t changed a bit: these four teams have the highest probabilities to reach the playoffs after the rest of the regular-season games were simulated.

The last wild-card spot was expected to be a very tight race between the Twins, Blue Jays, Mariners and Angels when every single game was simulated before the season. Toronto is out of the race, while the Angels' situation doesn’t look very good, either.

MORE: Updated American League standings

Through July 17, AccuScore predicts that Seattle has the best chances among this group to reach the postseason with a 79-percent probability. The Athletics have played much better than expected and have over 15-percent probability to make the postseason.

The next highest probability to reach the playoffs belongs to the Twins, who have just over a 10-percent chance.

Projected National League standings

(All projections based on records through the All-Star break.)

Team Proj. record Div. odds (%) Playoff odds (%)
NL EAST
Washington Nationals 88.5-73.5 57.99 78.12
Atlanta Braves 86.3-75.7 30.91 57.59
Philadelphia Phillies 83.1-78.9 10.89 26.52
New York Mets 74.2-87.8 0.14 0.38
Miami Marlins 62.4-99.6 0 0
NL CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs 95.8-66.2 95.45 99.13
St. Louis Cardinals 84.2-77.8 2.83 34.92
Milwaukee Brewers 82.7-79.3 1.45 22.64
Pittsburgh Pirates 79.1-83.0 0.27 5.86
Cincinnati Reds 70.5-91.5 0 0.02
NL WEST
Los Angeles Dodgers 90.5-71.5 74.26 89.14
Arizona Diamondbacks 85.4-76.6 16.4 47.21
San Francisco Giants 83.2-78.8 6.71 25.59
Colorado Rockies 80.3-81.7 2.57 10.34
San Diego Padres 69.8-92.2 0 0.01

In the National League, the season simulation resulted the highest probabilities for the Cubs, Nationals and Dodgers. There is no surprise that these are still the teams with highest postseason probabilities based on rest of the season simulations at the All-Star break. However, the rest of the NL playoff picture is not so clear.

The Nationals are a few games behind the Phillies and Braves, who have played better than simulations predicted before the season. With updated simulations Philly's and Atlanta's chances for making the playoffs are 27 percent and 58 percent, respectively.

MORE: Updated National League standings

In the NL Central, Milwaukee has the same amount of wins as Chicago, but the Brewers' postseason probability is only 23 percent. Even though St. Louis is close behind them, the Cardinals' playoff chances are a bit higher with 35 percent. It looks like there will be only one playoff team coming from the NL Central, but it will be interesting to see if these teams will enter the wild-card race.

The NL West is another division with multiple teams that have good chances for the postseason. The Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Rockies and Giants were within four games of first place at the break. The Rockies have played better than preseason simulations predicted, and updated numbers show a 10-percent chance to make the postseason. A competitive NL West should should make for a tight NL wild-card race, as well.

AccuScore