MLB Playoffs 2024 odds and predictions: World Series picks, AL & NL best bets and top MVP wagers

The 2024 MLB Playoffs have begun, and the divisional matchups on the bracket have been set in stone. Futures bettors, the time is now to lock in some value wagers on the AL and NL pennants, MVPs, and the World Series champions.

As expected, the Yankees, Dodgers and Phillies yield the shortest odds on the BetMGM World Series board. But the Padres have become one of the more popular bets, and after sweeping the Braves in the Wild Card they can no longer be considered a true sleeper.

MORE MLB PLAYOFFS: Bracket, game times, TV schedule

Sleeper status seems reserved for the Guardians, Tigers, Royals and Mets — all teams between 100-to-1 and 120-to-1 odds.

Cleveland draws Detroit in a divisional tilt nobody saw coming six months ago. Kansas City, which went from 106 losses in 2023 to 86-76 this year, faces Aaron Judge, Juan Soto and the mighty Yankees. The Mets have the unenviable task of playing Bryce Harper and the Phillies. 

Can pitching propel Cleveland and Detroit to the ALCS? Will Bobby Witt Jr. and Kansas City's elite bullpen shock the Yanks? Can Francisco Lindor and the Mets power past a well-balanced Philadelphia roster?

All the questions will start getting answered with the start of the AL and NL Divisional Series. Let's take a look at the odds and unveil the best bets to win the World Series, ALCS, NLCS, and all three MVP awards.

MLB Playoffs 2024: NLCS odds

All odds courtesy of BetMGM. 

NLCS best bet: San Diego Padres (+290)

Don't miss your spot on the bandwagon, because the Padres have rightfully rocketed up the odds board. San Diego has gathered a ton of momentum, going an MLB-best 43-20 since the All-Star break and blowing away the Braves in the Wild Card. This squad plays very well on the road (48-33), and it has gone 8-5 against the NLCS-favorite Dodgers this season.

San Diego flaunts an impressive three-man rotation in Michael King, Yu Darvish, and Dylan Cease. If Joe Musgrove (elbow) can get back on the mound, it will be icing on the cake. Mike Shildt's team also has a powerful bullpen foursome in Jason Adam, Tanner Scott, Jeremiah Estrada and Robert Suárez. Even without Musgrove, these top seven arms can keep L.A. and Philly at bay.

Oh, and the Pads' offense has been pretty dang good, too. It has superstar sluggers in Fernando Tatis and Manny Machado, a clutch leadoff hitter in back-to-back batting champ Luis Arraez, a breakout star in Jackson Merrill, and a veteran glue guy in Jurickson Profar. It's a very fun lineup to watch — unless, of course, you're a Dodgers fan. 

Unlike San Diego, Los Angeles has a suspect starting rotation. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jack Flaherty, Walker Buehler, and Landon Knack don't exactly strike fear in the hearts of opponents. The Dodgers have abundant offensive power, sure — with an MVP-laden top of the order including Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman — but Dave Roberts' club has nowhere near the pitching depth of the Padres and Phillies. 

Speaking of Philly, we still give San Diego the benefit of the doubt if it needs to get through the NL East-champion Phillies. Philadelphia has a strong lineup and a solid rotation, but its bullpen gives us pause. With a 3.94 bullpen ERA, 22 total blown saves, and a closer in Carlos Esteves who relies too heavily on his fastball, it's hard to hitch our wagons to Rob Thomson's club. 

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Best bet to win NLCS MVP: Fernando Tatis (+1500)

Tatis has been about as entertaining as they come over the past few weeks, with eight total home runs since September 10 including a moon-shot against the Braves in the Wild Card series. Manny Machado might be the vocal leader of the Padres, but Tatis is the heart and soul. He's powerful, passionate, and itching to lead his club to its first World Series win.

Tatis has only played eight career postseason games, but his numbers across those eight games speak volumes about his clutch gene: 11-for-28, three homers, seven RBIs. If San Diego gets to the World Series, Nando will have his fingerprints all over that NL pennant. With just the seventh-shortest odds on the NL MVP futures board, this feels like tremendous value. 

MORE: Sporting News' full predictions for MLB Playoffs

MLB Playoffs 2024: ALCS odds

ALCS best bet: Guardians (+340)

Sorry to the Yankees fans, who have probably already stopped reading at this point anyway. New York has one of the best 1-2 punches of all time in Juan Soto and Aaron Judge, but the fate of the pinstripes has been far too dependent on two players. The Guardians have a much more balanced lineup from top to bottom and a far better pitching staff.

Cleveland's rotation is one thing — Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, and Ben Lively might be the most under-the-radar three-man rotation in the playoffs. But it's the Guardians' bullpen that will push Stephen Vogt's club over the top this October. Led by AL Cy Young candidate Emmanuel Clase, this 'pen had a 2.57 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 650 strikeouts this season. 

The Guardians have plenty of pop, too. Jose Ramirez will likely finish top five in MVP voting yet again, always the bridesmaid but never the bride. J-Ram and Josh Naylor combined for 70 homers this season, while four other Guardians hit at least 13 long-balls. But power is far from Cleveland's only asset outside of pitching. The club also finished top-five in steals and top-10 in double plays turned per game. 

Cleveland also has an ace in Bibee, and if Williams can ride his hot streak into the playoffs this could be the darling staff of the AL. Even if Williams struggles a bit, Vogt has the bullpen arms to bring in and shut down a top-heavy Yankees team, a Royals offense that scuffled in September, and/or a Tigers club that ranked 19th in runs and 23rd in hits this year. Good luck if your team falls behind the Guardians in any game this fall. 

Best bet to win ALCS MVP: Jose Ramirez (+1000)

Ramirez has been a top-10 finalist for AL MVP a half-dozen times, finishing second (2020), third twice (2017 and 2018), fourth (2022), sixth (2021), and 10th (2023). His 2024 campaign might be his best yet, having racked up 39 homers, 39 doubles, 41 steals, and 118 RBIs. Unfortunately for J-Ram, though, Aaron Judge will more than likely stand in the way of his first-ever league MVP. 

That's okay, though, because Ramirez will be more than happy to win an ALCS MVP. The undisputed leader of the Guardians, Ramirez does just about everything for his club and would need to be pretty bad to not win this award if Cleveland punches its ticket to November. He's as healthy as he's ever been in the postseason, and he's a great bet at 100-to-1. 

MLB World Series 2024 odds

Best bet to win 2024 World Series: Padres (+550)

Almost everything seems to be clicking at the right time for the Padres, who have a .692 winning percentage since the All-Star break and all the momentum in the world after outscoring the Braves 9-4 in a Wild-Card sweep.

Michael King has been utterly dominant atop the order, most recently recording 12 strikeouts over seven shutout innings against Atlanta. His emergence as staff ace allows San Diego the luxury of using Yu Darvish and Dylan Cease as No. 2 and No. 3 options, and possibly even using Joe Musgrove in relief if and when the veteran comes back from his elbow injury. 

San Diego is far more than a solid rotation, though. It has a lineup that never seems to stop grinding. It has an insanely athletic outfield and fundamentally sound infield. It's got the bullpen arms necessary to go all the way. And it has a fanbase that will make watching the Padres' pursuit of its first-ever World Series title that much more fun. 

The Padres have been driven not just by sheer talent, camaraderie, and some of the best fans in baseball — they have also been motivated to win one for late Padres chairman and owner Peter Seidler. The beloved San Diegan, who had type 1 diabetes and survived two bouts with non-Hodgkin lymphoma, died in November 2023. The Padres have made it a point to honor Seidler during every step of their successful 2024 campaign, and going all the way in his honor would be the ultimate honor. 

World Series MVP odds 2024

Best bet to win World Series MVP: Tatis (+2000)

We're going back to Tatis here because we figure we have two chances for him to win if we have the Padres winning it all. Even if another player balls out and takes the NLCS, it would be hard to envision Nando not winning the bigger of the two awards if San Diego goes all the way. 

You could also hedge your bets if you're backing the Padres to win it all, putting 60 percent of your MVP wagering on Tatis, 30 percent on Manny Machado (+2800), and five percent each on clutch rookie Jackson Merrill (+5000) and emergent ace Michael King (+5000). That gives you four good opportunities to win. It's like a game of Padres MVP roulette! 

With so much volatility in World Series and World Series MVP betting, it makes sense to bet conservatively and hedge your bets a bit. Futures betting can be a ton of fun, though, especially when your research pays off and your educated guesses strike gold. Good luck this fall, and enjoy the MLB playoffs!