The final day of the MLB regular season is here — well, for 28 teams, at least.
The Mets and Braves are two of the five teams with something at stake on Sunday, but Monday could be the day one or both of their fates are decided, depending on how they close out the weekend.
In the American League, the postseason field is set but the Wild Card Series matchups are not. The Tigers and Royals don't yet know where they will be playing on Tuesday, and Sunday will determine which of the two the Orioles and Astros can't expect.
Two postseason spots remain up for grabs. No wild-card matchup has been determined. Here's a look at the scenarios that could play out on Sunday.
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Only two races have anything at stake on Sunday: the NL wild-card race, which has two postseason berths available, and the seeding race between the Tigers and Royals in the AL.
All divisions have been won, and the top four seeds in each league are all locked in.
National League wild-card race
Even in a tight race, the scenarios entering the final day of the regular season are typically pretty straightforward. That isn't the case this year, thanks to Hurricane Helene.
The Mets and Braves have played two fewer games than the Diamondbacks, and there is still a chance they won't actually have to play a doubleheader on Monday.
- WC2: Braves, 88-71 (.553), +1.0
- WC3: Mets, 87-72 (.547)
- Diamondbacks, 88-73 (.547), 0.0 GB (lose tiebreaker)
Here is how every single Sunday scenario would impact the NL wild-card picture:
Braves win + Mets win + Diamondbacks win
The Braves would clinch a postseason berth while the Mets and Diamondbacks would both stay alive entering Monday. New York would simply need to go 1-1 in a Monday doubleheader to clinch in this scenario, which might make the second game unnecessary unless the two teams decide to play for seeding.
Braves win + Mets win + Diamondbacks loss
The Braves and Mets would both clinch a postseason berth, while the Diamondbacks would be eliminated. In this scenario, a doubleheader might not be played. All that would be left up for grabs is seeding, and the decision regarding whether Monday's games should be played at all would come down to commissioner Rob Manfred.
If no doubleheader is played in this scenario, the Braves would head to San Diego while the Mets would go to Milwaukee.
Braves win + Mets loss + Diamondbacks loss
The Braves would clinch a postseason berth (but not yet the No. 5 seed), while the Mets would enter Monday just needing one win over Atlanta to clinch a postseason berth. The Diamondbacks would stay alive into Monday, but they would need the Mets to lose both games against an Atlanta team that already has a playoff spot in hand.
Braves win + Mets loss + Diamondbacks win
The Braves would clinch a postseason berth, while the Diamondbacks would jump the Mets for the No. 6 seed but could not clinch. In this scenario, the Mets would not only have to go to Atlanta for Monday's doubleheader, but they would have to win both games to go to the postseason. If they don't, Arizona advances.
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Braves loss + Mets win + Diamondbacks win
The chaos scenario! No one would clinch a postseason berth if this is how Sunday played out, as the Braves and Mets would enter Monday tied while the Diamondbacks would be in a virtual tie with the two.
Okay, so what now? The Braves and Mets would still need just one win in the doubleheader to clinch a postseason berth. The winner of the first game would go to the postseason, and the loser of that game would have to win the second game to clinch as well. If the doubleheader is a sweep, the Diamondbacks advance.
Braves loss + Mets win + Diamondbacks loss
The Mets and Braves would both clinch a postseason berth, eliminating the Diamondbacks and likely making a doubleheader unnecessary. New York and Atlanta could still play for seeding, but that might not be preferred by either team, and the decision comes down to Manfred.
If no doubleheader is played in this scenario, the Braves would head to San Diego while the Mets would go to Milwaukee.
Braves loss + Mets loss + Diamondbacks win
The other chaos scenario! No team would clinch a postseason berth, and the Diamondbacks would at least temporarily jump the Mets for the No. 6 seed.
Come Monday, the Braves would need just one win over the Mets to clinch. The Mets, however, would need two wins over the Braves to clinch. That means any Atlanta win on Monday in this scenario would clinch a postseason berth both for themselves and for the Diamondbacks.
If the Mets won the first game of the doubleheader under this scenario, it would make Game 2 a win-or-go-home game.
Braves loss + Mets loss + Diamondbacks loss
With the way these teams have been playing, this probably wouldn't be a huge shock. The scenario would play out exactly like it would if all three teams won, though.
The Braves would clinch, while the Mets would have to play for a postseason bid on Monday. New York would need just one win in Atlanta to advance, while the Diamondbacks' only hope would be two Mets losses on Monday.
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American League wild-card seeding
The American League postseason field is set, but the seeding of the Tigers and Royals has yet to be determined. That means none of the four teams set to play in an AL Wild Card Series know who they will be playing entering Sunday, but the scenarios are much simpler than the mess in the NL.
Here is how the matchups could shake out depending on each possible Sunday result.
- Tigers win: No. 5 Tigers vs. Orioles, No. 6 Royals vs. Astros
- Tigers loss + Royals loss: No. 5 Tigers vs. Orioles, No. 6 Royals vs. Astros
- Tigers loss + Royals win: No. 5 Royals vs. Orioles, No. 6 Tigers vs. Astros
The Royals can only get back up to the No. 5 seed with a win AND a Tigers loss on Sunday. If the Tigers win or both teams lose, Detroit will capture the No. 5 seed and play in Baltimore on Tuesday while Kansas City would head to Houston.
If the Royals do land at No. 5, they would face the Orioles while the Tigers would get the Astros.
