This, baseball fans, is going to be the strangest offseason in decades.
The levels of uncertainty are unprecedented. Will baseball be able to play a 162-game season in 2021? Will spring training start on a normal timeline? Will fans be allowed in the stands next season and, if so, at what capacity? Will the National League use the designated hitter again in 2021? The list of questions feels endless.
The only certainty about that level of uncertainty is this: We are going to see teams default to not spending money, with so many unknowns surrounding 2021 revenue.
“As we approach this offseason, it’s definitely going to require some creativity, some patience and good timing,” Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told reporters on a Zoom call last week.
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We’ve already seen this behavior, with typically reasonable options declined — two examples: Kolten Wong’s $12.5 million option wasn’t picked up by the Cardinals and Cleveland didn’t want Brad Hand’s $10 million option, even though he was outstanding as the club’s closer in 2020.
And we will see the same hesitation with the free agent market. As I said on St. Louis radio Monday morning, I’m already dreading the eventual “look how many great free agents are still available” stories I’ll have to write in mid-January.
What that means is this: There are opportunities for teams to be aggressive.
Teams that fancy themselves 2021 World Series contenders will be able to make quick moves on the free-agent front as other teams slow-play the market. Bidding wars can’t exist when only one team is bidding, right? Same goes for teams that need not just one or two players, but have a decent amount of work to do if they want to remain contenders. A series of one-year, high(ish)-dollar deals could add a quick 2021 boost without impacting the future.
Here are a few teams that would do well to throw at least a tiny bit of caution to the wind and be aggressive this offseason.
White Sox
Why they’re here: The club didn’t hire Tony La Russa, 76-year-old manager with three World Series rings, to be their skipper for the next 10 season. They hired him because they believe this team has a chance to win a World Series (or two) in the very near future. And that’s an accurate assessment, because this team has an outstanding core group of players. But it’s not a perfect roster, and there are issues to be addressed this offseason. Can’t be shy now because of a little uncertainty. I took a deep dive here into what moves the club should make and which players the club should target this offseason.
Braves
Why they’re here: They’re here because they were very nearly in the World Series, and this is a club that should be right back in that same mix for the next few years, at least. Marcell Ozuna was amazing on his one-year deal for 2020, and bringing him back should be a priority. It won’t be cheap, but it at least makes sense that they could strike a quick deal, considering how Ozuna’s free-agent experience of last offseason wasn’t much fun and he might not want to wait around until February. They could use another No. 2-3-4 starter, because more than any other team last year, the Braves learned the “can’t have too much starting pitching” lesson in 2020. Two key relievers, Mark Melancon and Shane Greene, are free agents, and the club needs to either bring them back or find suitable replacements (which definitely exist in this market).
Astros
Why they’re here: If they want to prove they’re more like the team that crashed the ALCS instead of the team that finished under .500 in the regular season, there’s work to be done. Outfielders George Springer, Michael Brantley and Josh Reddick are all free agents, and relievers Brad Peacock, Roberto Osuna and Chris Devenski are all free to sign elsewhere, as well. Do they make one more push, with Carlos Correa, Zack Greinke and Lance McCullers Jr. around for 2021 before becoming free agents? It feels like this offseason, with a potential plethora of one-year deals to be signed, is perfect for Houston.
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Phillies
Why they’re here: Because, for all the headlines they’ve generated, moves they’ve made and money they’ve spent, here’s how the past three years have played out: Two games under .500, exactly .500, four games under .500. Yikes. Instead of just doing something, it’s time for the Phillies to do something right and address the club’s actual issues.
Padres
Why they’re here: Could this team, with its roster exactly as-is on Nov. 2, contend for the World Series title? Absolutely, yes. Could the bullpen use a little help, behind Drew Pomeranz, who was outstanding in the late innings of his first season with the Padres? Absolutely, yes. And does pretty much everyone expect general manager A.J. Preller to be aggressive this offseason as he looks to improve that bullpen and also find other ways to potentially upgrade the roster? Absolutely, yes.
Reds
Why they’re here: Because Joseph David Votto isn’t getting any younger, and 2020’s staff ace, Trevor Bauer, could almost certainly be had with a one-year deal. And because, while 2020 was a bit disappointing for Reds fans, it gave them a taste of success the front office would be foolish not to follow up on.
Yankees
Why they’re here: Because the drought is up to 11 years without a World Series appearance, and the franchise has only had one drought longer than that since 1920 — 14 years, from 1982 through 1995.
