Touch 'Em All, Joe: Mets new Mariners? Not quite; D-backs' direction; Realmuto rumors

Joe Rivera

Touch 'Em All, Joe: Mets new Mariners? Not quite; D-backs' direction; Realmuto rumors image

Touch 'Em All, Joe is a weekly column from SN's Joe Rivera, who discusses his MLB stream of consciousness and fields questions and comments from trusty Twitter users.

Welcome, readers! As you're gearing up for potentially cold weather, the stove gets hotter with the winter meetings in full effect.

Here's this week's Touch 'Em All, Joe.

Leading off: Winter blues

I'm a little nervous, folks. Waiting for the dam to break on this offseason is like sitting in the waiting room at the dentist for a root canal. The wait stinks, but once it's done, you're all hopped up on the happy pills and the world is all right. Or something.

Unfortunately, aside from a few trades and the signings of Patrick Corbin and Josh Donaldson, we're waiting for more explosive moves. The good news is that, thankfully, this offseason has been significantly busier than last year at this point, with the James Paxton trade, Robinson Cano to the Mets and the aforementioned Corbin and Donaldson deals all coming down before the meetings.

MORE: Follow along with the 2018 Winter Meetings here

There are still too many quality players on the market for it to be this quiet so far, and it's hard to imagine all 30 squads in baseball are just waiting for Manny Machado and Bryce Harper to sign. I certainly hope we're not heading for another lukewarm winter of nothingness until spring training. That's bad for fans and players, and even teams.

Here's hoping…

Double: Evil Empire state of mind

What are the Yankees waiting for? The James Paxton trade happened before Thanksgiving, and now there are reports that the Yankees might not be willing to shell out $300 million for Manny Machado.

All things considered, if there's any player on whom to spend $300 million-plus, it's Machado and fellow big-time free agent Bryce Harper. Both are 26 and not yet in the primes of their careers. I'm not sure why this is up for debate. The production, the swagger, the marketability, the headline-making capability of both guys pretty much write the checks themselves.

I don't think the Yankees are done this winter by any stretch, but their strategy is interesting — choosing to go into the 2019 season with incremental upgrades over last year's squad. Sure, the Yankees did win 100 games, and they did get a big lefty in Paxton, but the AL East is only going to get better around them. Choosing not to spend big money on guys who could impact the division race in a big way is questionable at best.

I don't think the Yankees are particularly scared to spend money, after all. I think they showed responsible financial restraint in avoiding going all-in on Corbin, and there are still plenty of pieces on the market that would be beneficial to New York's cause. (See: Dallas Keuchel, Andrew Miller, Marwin Gonzalez and more.)

RIVERA: Time to stop treating 'rentals' like a bad word

There is, however, something unsettling about the way the Yankees are operating. Some of it is with an eye on the future — as has been the modus operandi for some time now — with Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Didi Gregorius and others needing contracts in the coming years.

Oh? What's that, fair reader? Judge and Sanchez aren't up for contracts until 2022? Well, that certainly changes things.

While a financially restrained Yankee team is something odd to watch, with ownership adamant about staying under the $197 million luxury tax threshold in order to potentially sign players this offseason, it's time to put up or shut up. They're currently allowed a little bit of leeway with the market moving just a bit slowly, but with Corbin slipping away and Nathan Eovaldi re-signing with the rival Red Sox, fans of the Evil Empire might be getting a little antsy.

You can't keep selling to your fans one thing and decide against improving your team in a big way. Not that ownership is in the business of anything but making money, after all, but you have to spend money to make it. Willingly passing on not one, not two, but three big-ticket free agents the year after your most hated rival wins a World Series and you have the financial ability to make one of those moves, well, that doesn't make much sense.

I'd be willing to bet Machado ends up a Yankee, but if they swing and miss (as they are prone to do, you may have heard) on major free agents this year, it's a confusing offseason for the Bombers.

Triple: Catchers report

The baseball world is anxiously awaiting to see where J.T. Realmuto will be playing in 2019, because it's almost a certainty that he won't be donning a fancy new Marlins uniform come Opening Day 2019.

— Puts on Morpheus glasses —

But what if I told you the gap between Realmuto and the catcher field isn't as wide as you think?

There's no denying Realmuto seems Matrix-conjured, mixing together all of a catcher's most valuable skills into one player. By bWAR, Realmuto has gotten better in each of his four seasons, with his 4.3 bWAR mark in 2018 the highest of his career (13.0 bWAR overall).

But some of the free-agent catchers on the market are equally as enticing, namely Yasmani Grandal and Wilson Ramos. Realmuto might have the advantage of youth on his side, but the offensive production among the three has been eerily similar:

Realmuto 2018 stats: .277/.340/.484, 131 OPS+, 21 home runs. 4.3 bWAR.

Grandal 2018 stats: .241/.349/.466, 121 OPS+, 24 home runs. 3.3 bWAR.

Ramos 2018 stats: .306/.358/.487, 130 OPS+, 15 home runs. 2.7 bWAR.

You can interpret Realmuto's 2018 a few different ways, as you would a painting in the Museum of Modern Art. You can interpret it to mean he's reached his prime, and this is the player he's going to be for the next four or five seasons. Or you can view it as an aberration, considering this isn't the offensive player he's been in years prior. To be fair, I'd consider his 2018 more of the former than the latter.

To go a little further, however, per Baseball Prospectus' brand-spankin' new Deserved Runs Created Plus stat (DRC+) — which takes into account many different things, including, but not limited to, umpires, pitcher and park factors to evaluate how much value an offensive player is worth — Realmuto is just one of the pack.

Realmuto: 113 DRC+

Grandal: 115 DRC+

Ramos: 111 DRC+

(You can read more about DRC+ here.)

All that said, where Realmuto ends up depends on what teams are willing to give up: prospects or money?

Prospects are like gold in today's game. Actually, prospects are more than that: They're essentially treated like that treasure Nicholas Cage found in that one flick. What was the name of that again?

In any case, a trade for Realmuto is going to cost a fair amount of top prospects, along with a top-dollar contract in the coming years. The other guys, free agents, will only cost money. For teams looking for a backstop, it's all about how much — and what — they're willing to give up.

It's safe to say Realmuto is probably worth it. He's very good, but maybe he's not that franchise-altering backstop he's been painted to be.

In a word: whoa.

Home run: Diamondbacks' density

I'll be the first to admit that I felt the D-backs' trade of Paul Goldschmidt to the Cardinals was a good one, and you can read why here.

While Goldschmidt is a top-tier player in MLB, he's 31 and will be a free agent after the 2019 season. The Diamondbacks likely weren't going to contend in 2019, considering the losses of Patrick Corbin (signed with Nationals) and Taijuan Walker (recovering from Tommy John surgery). They are actively shopping Zack Greinke and Robbie Ray. Coupled with letting A.J. Pollock walk, it's tough to see how Arizona would rattle cages in 2019.

But what's up with those Snakes, man? There's an underlying issue here. Just look at some of the talent they've traded away or let go in the past decade:

  • Paul Goldschmidt, traded to Cardinals in 2018. 
  • Brandon Drury: Traded to Yankees in 2018.
  • Jean Segura, Mitch Haniger: Traded to Mariners in 2016.
  • Daniel Palka: Traded to Twins in 2015.
  • Touki Toussaint: Traded to Braves in 2015.
  • Didi Gregorius: Traded to Yankees in 2014. (Three-team trade.)
  • Matt Davidson: Traded to White Sox in 2013.
  • Adam Eaton: Traded to White Sox in 2013.
  • Tyler Skaggs: Traded to Angels in 2013.
  • Justin Upton: Traded to Braves in 2013.
  • Trevor Bauer: Traded to Indians in 2012.
  • Bryan Shaw: Traded to Indians in 2012.
  • Max Scherzer: Traded to Tigers in 2009. (Three-team trade.)
  • A.J. Pollock, current free agent.
  • J.D. Martinez, left as free agent following 2017.

Sorry, D-backs fans. I tried to avoid it, but I can't. This list doesn't include Ender Inciarte and Dansby Swanson heading to Atlanta in exchange for Shelby Miller. The wound is probably still fresh. Also, Miller is a free agent now, so there's that. Lie down. Try not to cry. Cry a lot.

That's a lot of All-Star appearances, a lot of home runs, a lot of talent to let go, especially in a division that has been relatively competitive for some time now.

See, this list would be much better had Arizona received long-term, impact, core talent. Of the 31 players acquired through those trades, here's a list of those who are still with the team: Steven Souza Jr., Taylor Widener (minor leagues), Walker, Robbie Ray, Ketel Marte, Nick Ahmed, Zack Godley, Domingo Leyba (minor leagues), Eduardo Escobar and the three received in the Goldschmidt trade.

MORE: Ranking the 79 best free agents

That's not necessarily a bad group altogether, but in the spirit of Oscar season, nobody is going to consider that cast for an Academy Award for Best Ensemble. (Oh, that's not an award? The Academy sucks. I digress.)

To take it a step further, why the interest in signing Greinke to a mega-deal after the 2015 season if you're just going to blow it up three years later? If you commit the kind of money they did to him — $206.5 million — aren't you sending a message to the fans that you're attempting to win in the coming seasons? Especially with one of the best players in baseball in Paul Goldschmidt?

Where is the strength of this Diamondbacks team? What is its identity? What is the direction? Who knows what evil lurks in the hearts of men? The Shadow knows.

But really, like Queens of the Stone Age once said, no one knows. And the outlook isn't pretty in the desert.

Pinch Twitters:

This is a multifaceted question. If you want to boil it down, then it seems like the Mets can be similar to the Mariners. But it's not that simple.

Almost every successful team builds around an ideal or philosophy, right? We've heard "organizational approach" so many times, and we see that come to fruition with successful teams: The Yankees were built on power; the Red Sox on contact; the Cubs on aggressive offense; the 2015 Royals on speed and swinging at everything; the 2015 Mets on pitching. You can run down a list of teams that are successful and point out their identity.

Examining what the Mariners are, it's tough to see what identity GM Jerry Dipoto has tried to cultivate during his tenure. The Robinson Cano signing came a year before Dipoto took over in the Emerald City, so you can't give him credit for that. Dipoto has made a ton of trades to bring in solid players, but they haven't exactly complemented each other in what they do. What is the identity?

Dipoto has a Hollywood-like obssession with re-imagining the Mariners' roster, but the reboots haven't exactly yielded blockbuster results. Their streak of consecutive years without making it to October baseball is at 17. As it stands, there are three everyday position players returning to the Mariners in 2019 — Dee Gordon, Kyle Seager, Mitch Haniger — as their timetable for contention is (seemingly) continuously pushed back. And for what?

To bring it back to the Mets, they tried building it through pitching. The roster hasn't been subject to great turnover. The Greatest Staff that Never Was — Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz, Zack Wheeler — is down to three now, and a very good three. I was very critical of the Brodie Van Wagenen hire, and BVW still has work to do, but he's done a pretty good job so far, bringing in Cano, Edwin Diaz and generally giving the franchise a modicum of hope. And hope, as they say, is a dangerous thing.

The question with the Mets has always been their health more than their talent. Between the starters and big-ticket bopper Yoenis Cespedes, guys can't seem to stay on the field. Whereas with the Mariners, it's just been a lack of identity. That's why I can't say they're "destined" to become the next Mariners, even with their franchise history.

To tie both franchises together, this offseason is shaping up to be another one of those "Huh?" ones for the M's, who can't figure out what they want to be. They traded Cano to the Mets and get a top prospect back in Jarred Kelenic, but they also packaged Diaz with Cano, who likely could have fetched a prospect haul himself. 

To answer your second question, I'll go halfway and give you five, in no particular order:

Montreal: It's just time for baseball to return to Montreal, oui? (Selfishly, I was in honors French for five years and want to show off.)

Portland: I hear it's beautiful out there. The land of Beavers and Ducks.

Omaha: Given its history with the College World Series, it'd be cool to see a major league team there. Not everything has to be hyper-commercialized or glitzy.

Charlotte: The Queen City is home to the Triple-A Knights, but it could definitely support an MLB team. I'm sure Charlotteans wouldn't appreciate the added traffic, though.

Mexico City: Not sure the logistics behind this, but with Latinos playing such a big part in today's game, it would be great to house a team in a few more Latin cities.


Tying into the previous question, if the Mariners are still looking to "re-imagine" their roster, I think Mitch Haniger is very much in play.

The Braves have the prospects to give up and the Mariners seem to be in one of their weird semi-rebuilding states. Haniger certainly came on in 2018, putting together a pretty quiet 6.1 bWAR season. You get the feeling that his skills and abilities would only be accentuated in a deep lineup like that of Atlanta.

Obviously, the big name is Bryce Harper. Are the Braves willing to spend $300 million-plus for him? There's no denying they're probably feeling some pressure from the rest of the NL East making moves, too.

Just imagine a 1-4 that features Ronald Acuña Jr., Josh Donaldson, Bryce Harper and Freddie Freeman. Whew. That's making me sweaty.

Joe Rivera