MLB free agents: Jake Arrieta or Yu Darvish? Who provides the best value?

Christopher Carelli

MLB free agents: Jake Arrieta or Yu Darvish? Who provides the best value? image

It seems in each baseball offseason a face-off ensues among “elite” free agents searching for nine-figure salaries. Often, teams fervently jump into the bidding for such players, but not this offseason.

Some have suggested that teams are intentionally stifling the market to drag down players’ prices, and to an extent they are correct. However, the slowdown has taken also shape because, unlike in years past, clubs have resisted veering from their player valuations based on performance projections of the player going forward. Meanwhile, players’ agents are sticking to the mindset that their clients are due contracts based on past performance. The impasse has crippled much of the free-agent market.

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The agents’ model is better suited for free agents with prime seasons ahead of them, but when a player enters the market on the downside of the age-curve — regardless of his pedigree — clubs are beginning to refuse to pay backward. This couldn’t be more true in the case of the premier starting pitchers in this free-agent market — Jake Arrieta and Yu Darvish, who both remain unsigned with less than a month until pitchers and catchers report to spring training.

In December, Arrieta was said to be looking for a contract in the $200 million range. Darvish’s desires are less evident, though he was projected to receive a deal of six years, $160 million by MLB Trade Rumors (Arrieta was pegged at four years, $100 million).

Our free-agent valuation series has tried to ascertain a potential contract’s breakeven point based on projected player performance value. In past iterations, we took a basic approach by averaging the player’s WAR over the past three seasons to come to a baseline measure. However, doing so with Arrieta and Darvish would present severely skewed results. Arrieta would receive an exceptional benefit from his 2015 performance (7.3 WAR, according to FanGraphs) and Darvish missed the 2015 season after Tommy John surgery, which would push us to use his 2014 WAR mark.

Instead, we decided to use part of Tom Tango’s MARCEL system, which assigns weights to WAR values to establish the baseline. For our purposes, the weighting works by adding the measures of six times 2017’s WAR, three times 2016’s WAR and one time 2015 WAR (2014 for Darvish) and then dividing the result by 10.

Arrieta and Darvish both arrived at a 3.3 WAR weighted average (after rounding) with the former holding a negligible overall edge if taken to the hundredths spot (3.31 to 3.28). Each pitcher begins with 2.8 WAR, as we deducted 0.5 WAR for 2018 based on the age-curve noted in the chart below.

Jake Arrieta Age Value of 1.0 WAR in millions Estimated WAR Performance Value in Millions
2018 32 $9.00 2.8 $25.20
2019 33 $9.45 2.3 $21.74
2020 34 $9.92 1.8 $17.86
2021 35 $10.42 1.3 $13.54
2022 36 $10.94 0.8 $8.75
2023 37 $11.49 0.3 $3.45
2024 38 $12.06 -0.45 -$5.43
Total     8.9 $85.11

 

Yu Darvish Age Value of 1.0 WAR in millions Estimated WAR Performance Value in Millions
2018 31 $9.00 2.8 $25.20
2019 32 $9.45 2.3 $21.74
2020 33 $9.92 1.8 $17.86
2021 34 $10.42 1.3 $13.54
2022 35 $10.94 0.8 $8.75
2023 36 $11.49 0.3 $3.45
2024 37 $12.06 -0.2 -$2.41
Total     9.1 $88.13

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Reviewing the data, it seems that teams might be reluctant to sign either pitcher to a pact beyond five seasons, which would fall well short of each player’s expectations. Why would a team go beyond five, or worse, six years knowing there is a chance for a negative impact on the club in year seven?

With the above valuation a dead heat across five seasons, clubs may consider other factors to determine the better value and how far they might be willing to surpass the breakeven point.

Actual mound time and injury history

Despite being almost five months older than Darvish, Arrieta has a good deal less time on the mound. Darvish started his professional career at age 18 and has thrown 458 1/3 more innings than Arrieta (including minor league frames). The mileage disparity of more than two years of pitching is a wise point for Arrieta’s agent, Scott Boras, to make when endorsing his client.

Arrieta has been on the disabled list just twice in his career. The first time was to remove a bone spur in his right elbow in 2011 and he spent a little over a month on the DL in 2014 with right shoulder pain. Meanwhile, Darvish underwent Tommy John surgery in March 2015 and has spent time on the DL with right shoulder pain, back pain and neck pain on separate occasions.

Projections and trends

Steamer Projections predicts Darvish will outpace Arrieta in WAR in 2018 (3.6 to 2.7). If we were to use these marks as a starting point in a performance value model like those above, Darvish would be worth $126.88 million with Arrieta sitting at $82.12 million across five seasons. These values reflect a significant boost for Darvish and a slightly lower estimation for Arrieta, which happens to correlate with each pitcher’s recent production trends.

Darvish has been the more consistent pitcher of the two. He proved to be durable in 2017, but he wasn’t just strong — he was effective. Darvish’s strikeout rate was once again over 10.0 K/9 and for the second straight season his walk rate was 2.8 BB/9. But he did allow 1.3 home runs per game, the highest mark in his career. Darvish is widely considered to have much better “stuff” than Arrieta, which could lead to more dominating performances.

In the meantime, Arrieta’s production is quickly trending downward across most statistical categories from his 2015 Cy Young performance. Arrieta’s ERA+  decreased for the second straight season, his fastball velocity is in decline, hits allowed per nine has increased and he was also touched for a significant number of home runs per game in 2017 (1.2).

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Postseason performance

Whichever club inks Arrieta or Darvish, they will do so hoping the pitcher will be a key component to the team’s postseason success.

Arrieta has been a solid postseason pitcher. In 52 2/3 career playoff innings, Arrieta owns a 3.08 ERA, 1.08 WHIP with 66 strikeouts, and was tremendous for the Cubs during their 2016 World Series run.

Alternatively, Darvish may have damaged his value somewhat with two absolute duds in the 2017 World Series. Darvish allowed nine runs (eight earned) in 3 1/3 innings. Teams will have to decide whether he was tipping pitches, and how much credence they put into the World Series results, especially after Darvish was quite good in the earlier rounds of the postseason (11 1/3 IP, 2 R, 14 K).

Reasonable starting points

In my view, Arrieta’s model posted above is spot on. If a club wants to maximize Arrieta’s value, I would suggest starting the contract discussion around five years at $85 million (about $2 million less than the value model shows as the breakeven point). I could see a team being pushed to five years and $95 million figuring the front end of the deal might help win a championship. However, that type of deal or one going six seasons and into nine figures portends a miserable finish.

As for Darvish, I feel it’s reasonable to begin a performance value model with 3.3 WAR, which is the midpoint of the model above and his statistical projection for 2018. Doing so leads to a five-year breakeven point of $111.96 million. In that regard, a contract offer of five years and $105 million seems fair with a top end of $120 million. As with Arrieta, pushing to that final number or beyond (whether seasons or salary) is begging for issues as the contract concludes.

Clubs making a determination between the two pitchers for their rotation should start with Darvish, both for immediate impact and as it relates to gaining the most value across a five-year contract. Arrieta is a decent fallback option, but the risk seems greater. So any attempt by Boras to portray otherwise should be taken with a grain of salt.

Christopher Carelli