MLB winter meetings: What Blue Jays should do may not be what they will do

Jenn Smith

MLB winter meetings: What Blue Jays should do may not be what they will do image

When the New York Yankees reverted to their Evil Empire ways and acquired reigning National League MVP Giancarlo Stanton this weekend, the road to the 2018 postseason became exceedingly more difficult for the Blue Jays.

The Yankees already passed the Blue Jays by this past season and now they’ve added Stanton to a powerful core that also features American League rookie of the year Aaron Judge and young stud catcher Gary Sanchez in the middle of its lineup.

 

 

Add to the mix that the Boston Red Sox are also ahead of the Jays in the AL East, and the Los Angeles Angels were the chosen ones in the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes, making the wild card picture that much more cluttered, and Toronto’s prospects do not seem overly promising in 2018.

So, it is time for the Blue Jays to step up and respond.

Neither of these moves in and of themselves changes the Jay's offseason plan. With the Winter Meetings set to begin in Orlando, President Mark Shapiro and General Manager Ross Atkins have a daunting task ahead of them: find savvy ways to address glaring needs in the outfield, starting rotation and bullpen while adding backup depth at the middle infield and catcher positions and remaining within the budget constraints established by ownership.

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After a disappointing season decimated by injury during which the Jays failed to reach .500 even once, this remains the task, regardless of whether or not the Yankees added Stanton to their organization.

If there is anything to be gleaned from last season, it is the fact that -- despite having several excellent positional players in the likes of Josh Donaldson, Justin Smoak and Devon Travis, and quality pitchers such as Aaron Sanchez, Marcus Stroman and Roberto Osuna -- the Jays could not withstand the glut of injuries and sub-par performances that ultimately derailed their season.

The Blue Jays began 2017 with a payroll just over $163 million. The current estimated payroll for 2018 is $140.2 million, leaving them with somewhere in the neighborhood of $23 to $25 million left to spend, assuming that ownership does not approve a significant payroll increase. Given the needs that must still be addressed – particularly the two corner outfield position and a starting pitcher – it is likely the Blue Jays will not be able to fill out the roster via free agency alone.

The difficulty here is obtaining impact players who will allow the Blue Jays to be competitive this season without going over budget or trading away any of their top prospects, particularly Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and Anthony Alford.

There are certainly impact players the Jays could target via trade this off-season. The Miami Marlins’ fire sale means outfielders Christian Yelich (who is owed $7 million next season) and Marcell Ozuna (projected to earn roughly $10.9 million in arbitration) are likely available if the right offer comes along. The Jays reportedly have interest in Pirates utility player Josh Harrison, who is owed $10.25 million in 2018. Free agent Yu Darvish would immediately fulfill the need for another starting pitcher.

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The ability to pull off such moves would certainly bolster the Blue Jays’ roster and conceivably put them in legitimate wild card contention next season. And, given the anything-can-happen nature of the playoffs, that alone is worth striving for – just ask the Yankees of last year and the Jays from two seasons ago.

That’s what the Jays should do this off-season. The question is: what will they be able to do?

Atkins stated that it his intention for the Jays to contend in 2018. With the payroll committed and the caliber of players already on this roster, the Jays can not look at what the Yankees and Angels have accomplished thus far and simply throw in the towel. There is the business side of baseball that is also a factor. Ownership must balance profit margins, which means maintaining engagement amongst fringe fans, maximizing ticket and merchandise sales along with television and radio ratings. That’s next to impossible for a team that engages in a full-on rebuild.

However, if the Jays are unable to bolster their roster in such a way that they can truly contend next season, it may be prudent to alter course and take a step back.

One of the biggest factors in all of this is whether or not the Jays can sign franchise player Josh Donaldson to a contract extension this off-season. The thirty-two year-old slugger is set to hit free agency at the end of the 2018 season, and conventional wisdom suggests he is likely to receive a more lucrative contract elsewhere. The absolute worst possible scenario is that the Jays have another 86-loss season and Donaldson walks away at the end of it for nothing. If this off-season plays out in such a way that the Jays do not look like legitimate contenders, it would behoove this front office to shop Donaldson and, assuming a return of major-league ready and nearly-ready players, trade him.

 

 

The same goes for the other pending free agents; namely Marco Estrada, J.A. Happ, Steve Pearce and Aaron Loup.

The volatile nature of relievers and his projected salary increases as he enters his first year of arbitration, combined with the sizable haul he should fetch in return, means that in this scenario, Roberto Osuna is another trade candidate this off-season.

One could argue that the Jays could wait until the July trade deadline to see where they’re at in the standings. They could; but doing so diminishes the return on pending free agents, and there is the risk of injury or sub-par performance that would also reduce their trade value.

None of this is palatable. It is not a smart business decision, at least not in the short term.

But, should the Jays fail to make enough of an impact this off-season, it is the smart baseball decision.

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This is not to suggest a painful and arduous Astros-style rebuild. It is about maximizing the return on players who will otherwise likely be lost at the end of a losing season. It is about reloading around Aaron Sanchez and Marcus Stroman while awaiting Guerrero Jr. and Bichette, who are only a year or two away from the majors. It is about retooling the roster so that it can be competitive – and remain competitive – beyond a narrow window of opportunity. Any short-term loss in fandom would be reaped and sustained, thus making it a smart business decision if we look beyond 2018.

This may all seem very reactionary to the fact that the Yankees acquired Stanton, but their roster’s marked improvement as a result is something that must be taken into consideration. The Jays cannot perform an about-face every time their rival ups the ante, but they do have to factor it in to making an informed decision about which course to take, particularly given the Donaldson situation.

Should the Jays be able to make a splash this off-season, they absolutely have to go for it in 2018. If not, pivoting from the stated intention with an eye towards a year or two or now, would be the shrewd move. Because nothing would be worse than enduring a season of frustrating mediocrity followed by the unceremonious departure of your franchise player.

Jenn Smith