During a normal baseball season, any 60-game stretch would be considered a relatively small sample size when it comes to voting for postseason awards. It’s a little more than two months of a six-month season. So much can change in the other four months.
Through the first 60 games of the 2015 season, for example, Jake Arrieta had been good but wasn’t more than an afterthought in the NL Cy Young race, with his 3.16 ERA and 71 hits allowed in 77 innings. In his final 20 starts, though, Arrieta was incredible, posting a 0.86 ERA and allowing just 76 hits in 147 innings. He won a tightly contested Cy Young race over Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw, who also had incredible seasons.
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But in 2020, the 60-game sample isn’t a sample at all. It’s the entire season, and awards still have to be voted on by members of the BBWAA. Here are the leading contenders for MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year awards in each league.
AL Cy Young
1. Shane Bieber, Indians
Why he’s here: Let’s start with the easiest award to hand out. This Cleveland right-hander has been dominant from the start of the shortened season, topping MLB pitchers in WAR, both by FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference calculations. In his “worst” game (we’ll use GameScore to determine that one), Bieber pitched six innings, striking out eight while allowing four hits, three runs and a pair of walks. Bieber finished fourth in the AL Cy Young voting last year, his first full season in the bigs. Now, let’s compare some of his 2019 rate/ratio numbers to his 2020 counterparts.
2019: 3.28 ERA, 3.32 FIP, 10.9 K/9, 7.8 H/9, 1.054 WHIP
2020: 1.74 ERA, 2.13 FIP, 13.9 K/9, 5.5 H/9, 0.857 WHIP
Yeah. Crazy good, and easy choice for the AL Cy Young.
2. Kenta Maeda, Twins
Why he’s here: Given a rock-solid spot in a rotation — after bouncing between starting and relieving with the Dodgers the past few years — Maeda has flourished with the Twins. As good as Bieber’s been, Maeda has the Cleveland hurler bested in H/9 (5.3) and WHIP (0.758); in 60 2/3 innings, he’s given up just 36 hits and 10 walks, to go with a 2.52 ERA and 10.5 K/9. That’s really impressive.
3. Lance Lynn, Rangers
Why he’s here: Lynn doesn’t have the double-digit strikeout numbers of other contenders for this third spot, like Lucas Giolito (11.7), Hyun-Jin Ryu (10.2), Carlos Carrasco (10.7) or Gerrit Cole (11.9), but he’s been stellar all season for a Rangers club that’s been otherwise not good. He’s still striking out more than a batter an inning — 84 in 78 1/3 innings — and he’s only allowed 52 hits on the year. He’s allowed 0, 1 or 2 runs in nine of his 12 starts.
AL MVP
1. Jose Ramirez, Indians
Why he’s here: Cleveland decided to trade away starting pitcher Mike Clevinger without bringing back any legitimate, established sources of offense at the Aug. 31 trade deadline. Apparently, Ramirez took it upon himself to add some extra thump to the lineup. In 14 September contests, Ramirez has eight homers, 17 RBIs, 13 runs scored, a .407 average and 1.374 OPS; in Cleveland’s past five games — the Indians have won four of those five, clinching a playoff spot — Ramirez is batting .550 with five homers, three doubles and 13 RBIs, including a three-run walk-off homer against the White Sox on Tuesday night. Yes, we’re talking about small sample sizes, but this whole season is a small sample size. He leads MLB with a 3.2 fWAR (FanGraphs formula) and is one of only four players in the sport to hit double digits in both homers (17) and stolen bases (10).
2. Jose Abreu, White Sox
Why he’s here: All the preseason talk in Chicago about the White Sox’s revival centered around this massive wave of young talent — and for good reason — and I’m not sure anyone expected Abreu to put up the type of numbers he has this year. He leads the AL in RBIs (55), slugging (.641), hits (73) and total bases (141), to go with a .333 average, 176 OPS+, 18 homers, 14 doubles and 40 runs scored. He leads all AL position players in bWAR (Baseball-Reference formula).
3. Shane Bieber, Indians
Why he’s here: Can/should a pitcher win an MVP award? Look, I had one of the 30 NL MVP vote in 2014, when Clayton Kershaw topped Giancarlo Stanton and Andrew McCutchen in a close race. It was not an easy decision, but here’s how I voted: 1. Kershaw, 2. Stanton, 3 McCutchen. So, yes, I think a pitcher can win an award. And Bieber has been pretty unbelievable. But he’s made only 11 starts, with one more coming today. And, though I know the percentages are the same, I’m just not sure I can give the MVP award to a guy who’s only going to play 12 games in a season (if I had a vote this year, which I do not).
AL Rookie of the Year
1. Kyle Lewis, Mariners
Why he’s here: Lewis has been a wonderful addition to the Seattle club, looking like a star from the start of the 2020 season, when he homered in the first two games of the year. He’s batting .272 with 11 homers, an .837 OPS and 1.9 fWAR
2. Luis Robert, White Sox
Why he’s here: The star talent is so very obvious. He’s had a couple of ups and downs this year, leading to a drop in average/OPS (from .298/.960 at the end of August to .225/.741 now) and that’s cost him the RoY award, but he’ll be just fine.
3. Christian Javier, Astros
Why he’s here: He’s been a solid part of a rotation that’s needed help, with injuries and inconsistencies to veteran hurlers. In nine starts, Javier has a 3.33 ERA and 0.99 WHIP.
NL Cy Young
I don’t have an official vote this year, so I don’t have to split the hairs required of the 30 BBWAA members who are casting ballots. Good luck to those whose job it is to figure out this race. Check out these numbers …
- 10 National League pitchers have an fWAR between 1.9 and 2.6
- 6 of those 10 have an ERA of 2.22 or below
- 4 of those 6 have a FIP below 2.50
- 4 of those 4 have a K/9 of at least 11.48
So it feels like the Cy Young should come from that group, right? Here are those starters …
- Yu Darvish, Cubs: 2.6 fWAR, 2.22 ERA, 2.22 FIP, 11.48 K/9
- Jacob deGrom, Mets: 2.6 fWAR, 2.14 ERA, 1.99 FIP, 13.43 K/9
- Corbin Burnes, Brewers: 2.6 fWAR, 1.77 ERA, 1.78 FIP, 13.34 K/9
- Dinelson Lamet, Padres: 2.3 fWAR, 2.07 ERA, 2.50 FIP, 12.26 K/9
But look at who’s left out of that group!
- Trevor Bauer, Reds: 1.80 ERA, 2.0 fWAR, 12.18 K/9, 3.15 FIP
- Max Fried, Braves: 1.96 ERA, 2.61 FIP, 1.9 fWAR, 8.18 K/9, ZERO HOME RUNS ALLOWED ALL SEASON
- Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers: 1.6 fWAR, 2.15 ERA, 2.94 FIP, 9.77 K/9
- Luis Castillo, Reds: 2.2 fWAR, 2.86 ERA, 2.72 FIP, 11.59 K/9
So, yeah. Good luck with all that.
NL MVP
1. Freddie Freeman, Braves
Why he’s here: He’s finished in the top eight of the NL MVP voting four times, with a high of his fourth-place finish in 2018. This could be the year he takes home the hardware, though it’s far from a done deal. He’s top three in pretty much every important offensive category, including OPS (1.106), average (.347), RBI (50), fWAR (3.1) and on-base percentage (.463).
2. Fernando Tatis, Jr./Manny Machado, Padres
Why he’s here: Yes, I’m cheating. This is a column, not an actual ballot, so I’m putting these two incredible Padres on the same line. Tatis started white-hot and cooled off a bit. Machado took the opposite approach, but their numbers are pretty similar (Tatis, then Machado): homers (15, 16), RBIs (41, 47), fWAR (2.9, 2.7), OPS (.930, .983), runs (47, 42), on-base percentage (.369, .378), stolen bases (11, 6). Anyway, you get the point. Both have been worthy of top-three votes in this race.
3. Mookie Betts, Dodgers
Why he’s here: Living up to expectations seemed nearly impossible for Betts, who arrived in Los Angeles in a blockbuster trade and then signed a massive extension with his new club. But Betts has been everything the Dodgers could have hoped for, leading the NL in bWAR (3.2), to go with a .960 OPS, 16 homers, 39 RBI and nine stolen bases.
NL Rookie of the year
1. Devin Williams, Brewers
Why he’s here: Sure, he’s only pitched 25 innings this year, but he’s been incredible. He’s given up six hits, walked nine and struck out 52.
Not a typo. He has 52 strikeouts and six hits allowed. His ERA’s 0.36, his FIP is 0.74 and he has a 1.4 fWAR, despite pitching just 25 innings. Apologies to the other excellent rookies in this group, but he gets my nod.
2. Jake Croneworth, Padres
Why he’s here: He’s slowed down in September, but Croneworth has still been a big part of San Diego’s success this season, batting over .300 most of the year, with a solid on-base percentage and OPS, too.
3. Alex Bohm, Phillies
Why he’s here: He was called up in August and caught fire when the calendar switch to September; he’s batted .367 with a .431 on-base percentage and .965 OPS this month.
