Yep, it’s time for the annual Postseason Power Rankings, where we rank teams in order of their chances of winning the World Series.
We’re not so concerned with overall records; it’s cool that your favorite team was good/bad in May and June, but what do they look like right now? Are they healthy? Have the trade additions/subtractions made a big impact? What’s their potential path to the World Series?
Of course, we’ll make these predictions and then typical October chaos will ensue, although our No. 1 team in this exercise last year took home the title.
Let's dive in.
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12. Marlins
Why they could win it all: Because, I mean, you just can’t crush these Marlins. Every team has its share of ups and downs in a season, but the Marlins seems to have dealt with — and overcome — more than their share. These Marlins compete with professional at-bats and gritty innings, with a healthy sense of drama, and those team characteristics never matter more than in October.
The “yeah, but” problem: It’s the pitching. Well it’s who will not be pitching. Sandy Alcantara, last year’s NL Cy Young winner, is done for the year. So is rookie sensation Eury Perez. Those are two pitchers built to thrive on a postseason stage. Can they win a round or two? Sure, but these rankings are about the teams best suited to win it all, and it’s just a lot to ask to grind through an entire month, against teams of this caliber without an occasional Nationals/Rockies breather.
11. Diamondbacks
Why they could win it all: The D-backs have two elite starters, including Cy Young candidate Zac Gallen, one of the game’s “workhorse” type pitchers (maybe not based on the old definition, but compared to current competition). That’s a good start, with Gallen and Merrill Kelly. And at the leadoff spot, they have unflappable rookie Corbin Carroll — he’s going to run away with the NL award — igniting the offense. Carroll had 25 homers, 54 stolen bases, a 134 OPS+ and 5.4 bWAR. With Christian Walker, Ketel Marte and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in the heart of the order, the lineup is solid.
The “yeah, but” problem: It’s really difficult to navigate October with only two reliable starting pitchers, and that’s the situation Arizona faces. It’s not that they don’t have any other starters with stuff, but they don’t have any that have produced consistent results.
10. Rangers
Why they could win it all: That offense sure is fun, isn’t it? No AL team scored more runs than the Rangers, or were even particularly close to the 881 they put up. Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Adolis Garcia will all get mentions on the AL MVP ballots, and guys like Josh Jung, Jonah Heim, Mitch Garver and Leodys Tavares had outstanding seasons, too. And then you add rookie sensation Evan Carter into the mix? He just has the feel of the type of burst-on-the-scene guy who can make a huge impact in October, doesn’t he?
The “yeah, but” problem: The bullpen is a big problem. Can you remember the last team with a shaky bullpen to win the World Series? Neither can we. Oh, and by losing that last game of the regular season to the Mariners and falling from the No. 2 seed as the AL West champs to the No. 5 seed as the second wild card was BRUTAL; instead of getting a bye into the ALDS, they have to face the 99-win Rays in the Wild Card Series — played entirely at Tampa Bay — and then they’d have to play the 101-win Orioles in the ALDS.
9. Twins
Why they could win it all: The Twins’ rotation is right up there with any team in baseball. Sonny Gray (2.79 ERA) and Pablo Lopez (3.66 ERA) are elite, and Joe Ryan has elite stuff capable of dominating good lineups. And then you have underrated Bailey Ober and veteran Kenta Maeda likely joining an already-solid bullpen for October. Are you ready for a bunch of 2-1 and 3-2 games, Twins fans?
The “yeah, but” problem: Look, what’s happened in the past is not necessarily an indication of what will happen in the future, but that 18-game playoff losing streak sure looms large, doesn’t it? Really, though, the offense is the big worry, especially with health questions surrounding key players like Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis and Byron Buxton.
8. Brewers
Why they could win it all: Remember what we said about the Twins? Same goes for the Brewers, because that playoff rotation with Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta and Brandon Woodruff is just plain nasty. All three could win games basically on their own, especially with closer Devin Williams anchoring the bullpen group.
The “yeah, but” problem: It’s the offense. Feels like it’s always the offense in Milwaukee. Let’s say this, though: With the trade additions of Mark Canha and Carlos Santana and the call-up of rookie sparkplug Sal Frelick, the offense was much better down the stretch. Through the end of July, the Brewers ranked 13th in the NL in runs scored, but from August 1 to the end of the season, they were fifth.
7. Blue Jays
Why they could win it all: The pitching staff is just dynamic. The Jays have five starters, led by ace Kevin Gausman, they’d feel comfortable rolling out in a postseason game, which means one or two will shift into the bullpen, depending on how a series plays out. And it’s already a really good bullpen group, led by closer Jordan Romano, who was 36-for-40 in save opportunities this season.
The “yeah, but” problem: The offense can hit dry spells from time to time. Remember that huge four-game series in Toronto against the Rangers in mid-September? The Jays lose all four games — huge, crucial games — getting outscored 35-9. Helps that they’re the No. 6 seed, with a Twins—>Astros path to the ALCS, instead of a Rays—>Orioles path from the 5 seed.
6. Astros
Why they could win it all: They’re still the Astros, and they’ve reached the ALCS six years in a row. That type of experience is valuable. The lineup’s still deep, with five players who hit at least 22 homers and another six who hit at least 10. Yordan Alvarez is still that imposing masher in the heart of the lineup, and Jose Altuve has been his MVP-caliber self in the leadoff spot when he’s been healthy (and he is now). And they still have Framber Valdez and Justin Verlander at the top of the rotation.
The “yeah, but” problem: During their run to the 2022 World Series title, that bullpen just felt invincible, almost unfair. They have a lot of the same pitchers, but bullpen performance is not a constant, as any GM/manager can tell you. The group hasn’t been as good this year as it was last year. Can the relievers still shut down close games? No doubt. But are Astros fans at least a little bit more worried than they were last October? Probably so.
5. Dodgers
Why they could win it all: I mean, it starts with Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman. Quite literally, as the dynamic duo bats 1-2 in the Dodgers lineup. Nothing like jumping into the deep end for opposing pitchers. These Dodgers have not just weathered a stormy season, they’ve thrived in the challenge. “Postseason pressure” is nothing new to this group.
The “yeah, but” problem: Feels like every spring, we say something like this: “The Dodgers will easily get into the postseason again and have a chance to win it all, but let’s see what the health of the rotation looks like when October arrives.” Well, October’s here and things … are not ideal. Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin and Julio Urias are out, Noah Syndergaard was a bust and Walker Buehler didn’t make it back from Tommy John surgery in time to contribute. Now, Clayton Kershaw is healthy, which is huge. And young arms like Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan and Ryan Pepiot have big-league experience under their belts and absolutely could pitch big innings. Veteran Lance Lynn has overall been really good since his arrival in a trade with the White Sox, but got blown up when facing playoff teams Atlanta and Miami.
4. Phillies
Why they could win it all: Remember everything the Phillies did last October? That exact formula is pretty much back in place, only with upgrades like Trea Turner and rookie centerfield sensation Johan Rojas. Such a good lineup. Bryce Harper wasn’t his powerful self at the plate coming off the IL, but he hit 16 homers with a .429 on-base percentage in the last two months of the season. Safe to say his bat’s all the way back.
The “yeah, but” problem: Aaron Nola hasn’t looked quite like himself most of the year. Michael Lorenzen threw a no-hitter in his first start for the Phillies, then struggled to the point he was sent to the bullpen. Oh, and having to face the Braves in the NLDS (if, of course, they get past the Marlins) is brutal. The Phillies might have been No. 2 on this list with a different path.
3. Rays
Why they could win it all: Because the Rays always find somebody to plug into whatever potential holes develop, don’t they? Tampa Bay used 40 different pitchers this year; only the 110-loss A’s used more. That would seem to be a problem, right? Nah. Tampa Bay’s team ERA is a solid 3.82, which was third in the AL. Same thing with position players. When they lost Wander Franco, that could have been a big problem for lots of teams. He finished with the best bWAR on the team, despite playing just 112 games. After that point, the Rays went 27-16, a record bested only by the Orioles in the AL. Plus, y’know, they have big-stage Randy Arozarena, who was born for October.
The “yeah, but” problem: It’s hard to find a glaring issue here. Rays are just solid. But, lots of good teams in the postseason.
2. Orioles
Why they could win it all: I mean, doubt the Orioles at your own risk. The position players might not have the most impressive statistical lines — nobody with 30 homers, 100 RBIs or an OPS above .850 — but they complement each other in a way GMs and managers dream about, and all the O’s do is win, win, win. In the rotation, Kyle Bradish might be the most underrated starter in the majors, and rookie Grayson Rodriguez was lights-out down the stretch, posting a 2.18 ERA in his last 11 starts of the year, including a gem against the Rays on Sept. 16, with eight innings of shutout baseball.
The “yeah, but” problem: Not that these Orioles have shied away from any challenge, but the level of October experience on the roster is very, very limited. The postseason is a different beast. The bullpen has been very good, but the crushing loss of lights-out closer Felix Bautista could be huge.
1. Braves
Why they could win it all: The lineup is so deep it’s almost comical. There are no easy ABs for opposing pitchers, only a constant grind with the fear that one mistake could quickly turn into a crooked number. Here’s a pretty incredible number: The Braves have a .912 OPS against starting pitchers this year. There are only nine qualified hitters all season with an OPS of at least .900, and the Braves have a .912 OPS as a team vs. starting pitchers. The next-best team vs. starting pitchers? That’s the Dodgers, with an OPS of .800. So the Braves get into the bullpen better than just about any other team, and they hit 112 homers against relief pitchers during the season. No other team had more than Texas’ 99.
The “yeah, but” problem: It’s fair to wonder about the starting pitching. And, yes, I realize that by the end of the 2021 World Series, the Braves were basically down to one established starter and they still won the championship. But with Charlie Morton out at least through the NLDS with a finger issue, Max Fried dealing with blister issues, Bryce Elder looking like he’s out of gas (19 hits, 9 walks and 13 earned runs in 12 1/3 innings over his last three starts) and Kyle Wright highly ineffective in his four September appearances? Let’s just say it’s not ideal to have one reliable starter (20-game winner Spencer Strider) in October, even with that lineup.
