A rumor floated by MLB.com reporter Mark Feinsand on Thursday afternoon perked up ears throughout the 314 and 636 area codes.
Could St. Louis possibly be the new home base for one of the best free-agent arms available? That’s what Feinsand caught on the fly.
Here’s the exact wording, from Feinsand:
"And while several clubs have been linked to Bumgarner, including the Twins, Reds, White Sox and Braves, a source told MLB.com that a new potential bidder could be entering the fray: the St. Louis Cardinals."
Yep, that’s interesting.
SN FA PREDICTIONS: Placing players with teams
Bumgarner is 30 years old, with a track record that’s beyond reproach, especially in the postseason. For the franchise that ranks No. 2 on the list of most World Series titles in baseball history — the Cardinals won their 11th title in 2011 — that's an appealing quality.
St. Louis advanced to the NLCS last year, a welcome return to October success after three consecutive October-less seasons of baseball. They failed to win a single game in that round, though their failings were hardly the fault of the hurlers. The St. Louis pitchers did a fine job in the first two games — the Cardinals trailed 1-0 entering the seventh inning of both contests — before stumbling in the final two games.
The offense was anemic. In the first 30 innings of the series, the Nationals outscored the Cardinals 20-2. St. Louis hitters, collectively, produced a .374 OPS in the series. For context, the worst OPS for any player in the majors with at least 200 plate appearances in 2019 was .433, by Jeff Mathis. So, yeah, the Cardinals' hitters were significantly worse, as a group, than the worst hitter in baseball when it mattered most.
Truth is, Bumgarner himself might have had more of a chance against the Nationals’ pitchers than the Cardinals' hitters did.
But the point today isn't to harp on failings of the past. It's to point out that, in any reasonable evaluation of the Cardinals' offseason needs, offense seems to top that list. Marcell Ozuna, who hit 29 home runs and carried the offense in the NLDS, will depart as a free agent. Matt Carpenter is entering his Age 34 season and coming off the worst full season of his career. Dexter Fowler is entering his Age 34 season and coming off a 98 OPS+ season. Yadier Molina is still plugging away but entering his Age 37 season.
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So to see the Cardinals rumored to be involved in the bidding for one of the elite starters on the market — after Zack Wheeler got $118 million from the Phillies, MadBum seems likely to top $100 million, too — might have been a bit of a surprise to some Cardinals fans. After all, the rotation isn’t too bad.
Jack Flaherty developed into an ace in 2019. Dakota Hudson was very good (3.35 ERA) in his first full year in the rotation. Miles Mikolas, though not as good in 2019 as he was in 2018, still was a reliable piece of a contending rotation. And veteran Adam Wainwright showed he still has enough stuff to combine with his competitiveness to get MLB hitters out.
It's here where we'll point out two things:
First, the Cardinals are not going to win -— or, really, participate in — a true bidding war.
They are, they have been, but this truth remains: They're looking for big value not a big splash, and we've seen pitching deals already that could sweep the #Cardinals quickly out of the bidding for Bumgarner. They have their eyes peeled for a starter, but at their price. https://t.co/MAzcpY2mTg
— Derrick S. Goold (@dgoold) December 5, 2019
Second, the Cardinals have the financial flexibility to sign Bumgarner (again, at their price, if St. Louis is where Bumgarner wants to be) and still upgrade the offense through the free-agent and/or trade markets. And the markets don't always play out as front offices would prefer, so even though another starter might not be the front office’s top priority, that doesn’t mean it can afford to wait if Bumgarner really is a target and the left-hander wants to choose a new home soon.
Now that Wheeler is off the market, dominoes could fall quickly. Feinsand says in his story that one executive told him Bumgarner could sign before the Winter Meetings begin next week.
It still seems unlikely that the Cardinals will wind up with Bumgarner, but it was considered unlikely that the Nationals would run all the way to the World Series title as a wild-card team last fall, too. So like last October, we’ll see what happens.
