The final day of the regular season had plenty of drama, though no twists and turns that would have necessitated an extra day of baseball. Oh well.
But the field is set, and all five AL teams are very capable of making a deep run into October and challenging for a World Series title.
Here’s how it could happen:
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How the No. 5 seed Yankees can win the World Series
This needs to happen: The mashers in the lineup have to keep mashing. We’re specifically talking about Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, the longtime middle-of-the-lineup anchors. The Yankees entered August at 55-48, two-and-a-half games out of the second AL wild-card spot, but they went 37-22 the rest of the way, a mark bested in the AL only by the Rays (37-20). Stanton and Judge had a lot to do with that success.
Judge: .299, .964 OPS, 18 HR, 50 RBI in 59 G
Stanton: .300, .969 OPS, 19 HR, 51 RBI in 56 G
Brilliant stuff from both sluggers. If the Yankees are going to make a run deep into the postseason, it has to be fueled by those two. Pretty much every hitter in that lineup aside from Judge and Stanton has been incredibly streaky this year. The Yankees can’t advance if Judge and Stanton aren’t doing regular damage in the middle of the lineup.
This can’t happen: Obviously, Gerrit Cole can’t have a bad wild-card game. Part of that is this: When opposing teams put the ball in play, the Yankees have to play better defense in October than they did through much of the regular season. Defensive Runs Saved isn’t a perfect statistic — no fielding statistics are — but it’s troubling that they ranked 27th in the bigs in DRS this year, at minus-41, the worst mark among the playoff teams. The Yankees aren’t good enough to give teams extra outs.
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How the No. 4 seed Red Sox can win the World Series
This needs to happen: The offense has to produce, as it has all season. We’ll get into the pitching in a moment, but let’s just put it this way: If the Red Sox are to advance deep into October, it won’t be with a parade of 2-1 or 3-2 victories. Boston pitchers gave up 749 runs this season, which is 80 more than any other AL playoff team. The Sox have to score runs, and they have to score them in bunches. They certainly can do that; seven players have at least 20 home runs this season, led by the criminally underrated Rafael Devers’ 38 homers. The Sox need J.D. Martinez healthy; he rolled his ankle in the regular-season finale.
This can’t happen: The relievers can’t continue their pattern of inconsistent production, especially considering most of the Boston starters are five- or six-inning guys. It helps that rookie Garrett Whitlock came back and looked good in Game 162, no doubt. Here’s the bullpen ERA by month, starting with April: 3.09, 4.48, 2.96, 4.30, 5.33, 3.96. Not a lot of consistency, and consistent relief pitching is an October must. In that final game against the post-trade deadline Nationals, after Whitlock’s scoreless seventh inning, Alex Cora turned to starters Eduardo Rodriguez and Nick Pivetta to close out the last two innings. They can’t survive the October grind if every game is an all-hands-on-deck situation.
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How the No. 3 seed White Sox can win the World Series
This needs to happen: The Sox need to play loose, to have fun and let their talent shine. Because, folks, there’s lot of talent on this roster. Luis Robert, for example, missed more than half of the season and still posted a 3.6 bWAR in 68 games, hitting to a .338 average and a 155 OPS+ to go with 13 homers and six stolen bases. Jose Abreu followed up his 2020 AL MVP award with another solid season. Tim Anderson batted over .300 with an OPS north of .800 for the third year in a row. Yasmani Grandal had a .420 on-base percentage and 157 OPS+ and Carlos Rodon was brilliant in his return to the bigs, with a 2.37 ERA in 24 starts.
This can’t happen: For starters, the White Sox won’t make it out of the ALDS if the most of the starters throw like they did against Houston this year. Lance Lynn made one start against the Astros and gave up six runs in four innings. Dylan Cease made two starts and gave up nine earned in nine innings. Dallas Keuchel — who might be in if Carlos Rodon can’t go — was chased in the third inning of his lone start against Houston, allowing seven hits and four walks.
How the No. 2 seed Astros can win the World Series
This needs to happen: The Astros are an outstanding team without any glaring flaws, and they’ve had success against the other teams in the AL field this year, going 5-2 against the White Sox (their first-round foe), 5-2 against the Red Sox and 4-2 against the Rays, while posting a 2-4 mark against the Yankees (all six of those games were pre-All-Star break). The lineup is full of veterans with postseason experience (sordid as it might be) who are itching for another chance to prove that their 2017 World Series title was not just about the sign-stealing scandal. So what needs to happen? The Astros need to keep doing what they’ve done so well for so much of the season — hit well, pitch well and defend well.
This can’t happen: Not that we want to talk about the bullpen for every team, but they can’t squander leads. The bullpen was a problem in the first half, and trade deadline reinforcements solidified that area of need. Still, the Astros had seven blown saves in September/October, two of those leading to walk-off losses. The blown saves were scattered around the relief corps; closer Ryan Pressley didn’t have one but he did have a pair of final-month losses, giving up a total of four hits and four runs in one inning pitched in losses to Seattle and Oakland.
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How the No. 1 seed Rays can win the World Series
This needs to happen: It certainly wouldn’t hurt if Randy Arozarena repeated his October 2020 performance, or if rookie sensation Wander Franco did his Arozarena impression. Or, really, if Franco just keeps doing what he’s done since he was called up to the bigs and made his long-anticipated debut. All he did was tie Hall of Famer Frank Robinson for the longest streak of consecutive games reaching base safely by a hit, walk or hit by pitch for a player 20 years old or younger, a streak that reached 43 before it was snapped. In just 70 games in the majors, Franco posted a 3.5 bWAR, good enough for fifth on the club.
This can’t happen: Austin Meadows and Brandon Lowe can’t go cold at the plate with runners in scoring position. Those two led the Rays in RBIs this year, with 106 and 99, respectively. But both of them were much better with runners in scoring position than with the bases empty. Like, much, MUCH better.
Lowe
RISP: 162 PA, .414 on-base, 1.001 OPS
Empty: 355 PA, .304 on-base, .766 OPS
Meadows
RISP: 165 PA, .388 on-base, .994 OPS
Empty: 315 PA, .283 on-base, .638 OPS
If Tampa Bay’s opponents figure out how to pitch to those guys with men on base, that could be trouble for the Rays. And remember, Meadows batted just .137 in 53 PAs in October 2020 and Lowe hit .118 in 82 PAs, though he did pop three homers in the World Series. Those struggles were covered by Arozarena hitting like a Hall of Famer that month.
