Who will win Home Run Derby 2024? Odds, sleepers, best bets to win All-Star event in Arlington, TX

The last time the MLB Home Run Derby was held in Arlington, Texas, Frank Thomas and Albert Belle were on top of the super-slugger mountain with Griffey Jr., McGwire, Sosa and Bonds waiting in the shadows. Nearly three decades later, the long-ball bonanza still exists and has plenty of talent.

The player pool will miss MVP favorites Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge at Monday's Home Run Derby (7 p.m. ET, ESPN, Fubo). But the field still features tons of power, and the collective betting interest — like the average launch angle at Globe Life Field — should remain high. 

MORE: Tracking Home Run Derby participants | Full All-Star rosters

MLB did well to secure the players with the third, fourth, and fifth-most dingers on the season: Orioles breakout shortstop Gunnar Henderson, Braves NL RBI leader Marcell Ozuna, and Guardians perennial MVP candidate Jose Ramirez.

The league also wisely added Rangers slugger Adolis Garcia so Texas had some home-venue representation. Mets slugger Pete Alonso, a two-time Derby champ and one of only three players to ever win back-to-back contests, will also return for his fifth Home Run Derby.

Royals stud Bobby Witt Jr., Phillies breakout Alec Bohm, and Dodgers masher Teoscar Hernandez round out the player pool, which should collectively light up the sky like Fourth of July fireworks in "The Sandlot."

Let's take a look at the Sports Interaction odds to win the 2024 MLB Home Run Derby, then make our best bets, top sleepers, and highest-value long shots to win this year's contest.

Home Run Derby odds 2024

All odds courtesy of Sports Interaction

Eight players are participating in the 2024 Home Run Derby, and Alonso once again finds himself the odds-on favorite. The two-time Derby winner has participated in five total contests, easily the most experienced of the player pool.

After Alonso, the next three shortest odds belong to Ozuna, Garcia, and Henderson. Ozuna has the second-most dingers in the NL this season, Henderson ranks second in the AL, and Garcia has the benefit of home-field advantage.

Here's the full list of SIA odds for the 2024 Home Run Derby:

Home Run Derby 2024: Best bets

Pete Alonso (+310)

Alonso has endured a down year by his standards, mashing just 18 home runs while maintaining a batting average of .240. However, the Mets slugger still knows better than anyone in the majors how to win a Home Run Derby. He's the only player not named Griffey or Ripken to win back-to-back contests, and he's facing one of the weakest fields of his five career Derbies. The odds seem short, but that's just because Alonso's the clear favorite to win. 

Home Run Derby 2024: Top value bet

Gunnar Henderson (+575)

Henderson has become a household name over the past two seasons, leading the Orioles to 101 wins last season and mashing 27 home runs en route to an All-Star selection this season. Not many players these days flirt with a .300 batting average and a 50-homer pace at 23 years old. As long as he doesn't wear himself out too early into the competition, Henderson could find himself gunning for the home-run crown. 

Home Run Derby 2024: Best long-shot sleeper

Jose Ramirez (+1400)

JRam always seems to get overlooked. The stud third baseman has finished top three in MVP voting three times, and the one time he participated in the Home Run Derby he had a thumb injury. He's ranked third in the AL in home runs, and he has a much better chance of winning this contest than his +1400 odds suggest. If you only want to make a lotto-ticket wager, this is your opportunity. 

Home run Derby 2024: Biggest fades

Adolis Garcia (+400)

Garcia winning would certainly make for the best storyline, as he will be playing in his home ballpark. And he has demonstrated plenty of power since he broke out in 2021, blasting 122 home runs between the regular season and playoffs during that span. However, Garcia's poor performance in the 2023 Home Run Derby and his scuffling batting average this season both scream "buyer beware" on these relatively short odds.

Teoscar Hernandez (+1000)

Hernandez has hit 25-plus home runs in each of the past three seasons — totaling 83 in that span — and he's on pace for 33 in his first year as a Dodger. However, he has never participated in a Home Run Derby, and he has just one home run at Globe Life Field in his career. As Randy Jackson once said, "It's a no from me, dawg."