The Nationals have been scoring runs at a rather insane pace lately. They’re winning games, too. Funny how that happens, eh?
Before a hiccup in Pittsburgh on Tuesday, the Nationals had won seven of their past eight games and, entering play Wednesday, own the first NL wild card spot and are six games back of the Braves in the NL East. The success raises a question we’ll get to in a moment.
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First, let’s look at the rather incredible turnaround. The season hit a low point on May 23, when they lost to the Mets 6-4 to fall to 19-31 on the season and the only question about the team seemed to be when — not whether — manager Dave Martinez would be fired. They were 10 games behind the East-leading Phillies and 8.5 behind the second wild card spot.
Since then, they’re 49-25, tied with the Dodgers for the best NL record in that span. They’re playing great baseball and did we mention they’re scoring runs at a jaw-dropping clip? Take a look …
The Nationals have ...
— Ryan Fagan (@ryanfagan) August 20, 2019
- 43 runs and 52 hits in their past 31 innings
- 62 runs and 72 hits in their past 47 innings
- 79 runs and 99 hits in their past 72 innings
Um ... wow. pic.twitter.com/yKCWGmVqgF
Averaging nearly 10 runs a game — as they did during that 7-1 stretch — isn’t sustainable, of course, but that’s not the point. The point is that this offense, as currently constructed, is really damn good. In that 74-game stretch starting May 24, the Nationals are second in the NL in OPS, second in runs scored and second in batting average.
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But for the Nationals and their fans, the questions are all about October.
Not “Can the Nationals win the World Series?” But “Can the Nationals win any October series?” As fans of the Mets and Braves were quick to point out after my tweet on Monday night, the Nationals have experienced nothing but disappointment in October since the franchise’s move from Montreal to Washington, D.C.
The goal is, always, to win the World Series, of course. But the Nationals are 0-for-4 in playoff series since the shift southward, and in pretty much every series, something strange has gone horribly wrong.
— In 2012, the Nationals won 98 games and the NL East title, but lost Game 5 in the best-of-five NLDS against the Cardinals. That was the year, you’ll remember, that the Nationals put young ace Stephen Strasbug on an innings limit for the season and somehow didn’t think to include available innings in October. Even so, the Nationals had a 7-5 lead into the top of the ninth, at home, in Game 5. But the Cardinals sent eight men to the plate in that half-inning and four of them scored — the final two on an RBI single by Pete Kozma (.569 career MLB OPS), of all people.
— In 2014, the Nationals won 96 games and the NL East title, but lost to the Giants in four games in the NLDS. The Giants had been forced to throw their ace, Madison Bumgarner, in the wild card game, and the Nationals actually won the only game MadBum started that series. But in the other three games, the Nationals only scored a total of five runs in 36 innings. Yes, 36 innings in three games, because Game 2 went 18 innings; the Giants scored once in the ninth to send the game to extras and once in the 18th.
— In 2016, the Nationals won 95 games and the NL East title, but lost Game 5 in the best-of-five NLDS against the Dodgers. The Nationals grabbed a 2-1 lead in the series and outscored the Dodgers 24-19, but L.A. won three one-run decisions and advanced.
— In 2017, the Nationals won 97 games and the NL East title, but lost Game 5 in the best-of-five NLDS against the Cubs. That Game 5 was mildly insane: The Nationals led 4-1 after two innings. The Cubs led 8-4 through the top of the sixth. The Nationals scored two in the sixth, one in the seventh and one in the eighth, but the lone run the Cubs scored in the seventh proved enough in a 9-8 victory.
MORE: Remembering the Expos' semi-forgotten 1981 NLDS win
But what happened in 2012 has no bearing on what happens in 2019, of course. So back to the question at hand: Is this year’s team good enough to win a series in October?
Yes, this team is good enough. It’s not a perfect team, but it’s a team with necessary pieces, assuming those key pieces are healthy in October.
We’ve talked about the offensive output, so let’s start with those pieces. Anthony Rendon is a regular MVP candidate when he’s healthy, and he’s been healthy and productive all season. He’s eighth among NL position players with a 4.6 bWAR, which goes nicely with his .317/.395/.602 slash line, 148 OPS+, 27 homers, 97 RBIs and 89 runs scored.
Juan Soto is having another brilliant season, too. He’s STILL only 20 years old, and he has a .293/.404/.563 slash line, with 28 homers, 83 RBIs and 13 stolen bases. Trea Turner, Victor Robles and Adam Eaton all have both have double-digit homers and double-digit stolen bases. Matt Adams and Brian Dozier each have 19 homers. Veteran Howie Kendrick has a .319 average and 13 homers in 91 games.
And then, you look at the starters. Any team in baseball would feel good about their chances with three-time Cy Young winner Max Scherzer leading a rotation that includes Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin. Strasburg, by the way, has been outstanding when he’s been given a shot at pitching in October. In three career playoff starts, he’s allowed one earned run and struck out 24 in 19 innings.
The bullpen? Well, the bullpen needs closer Sean Doolittle to come back healthy. He had been cruising along this season, with a 2.81 ERA and 25 saves in 29 chances before his recent struggles — he allowed 10 runs and five homers in four innings, then went on the IL with his knee issue. Trade pick-ups Daniel Hudson and Hunter Strickland have been solid additions, but the bullpen is still the weakest point for the team’s October hopes.
