Dodgers could sweep World Series if Rays don't fix these two things

Ryan Fagan

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Dodgers could sweep World Series if Rays don't fix these two things image

Game 1 of the 2020 World Series sure looked a lot like the first victory of a four-game sweep, didn’t it? The Dodgers dominated the Rays in pretty much every facet of the game, with the exception of one reliever who certainly would not have been pitching if the contest was close in the seventh inning. 

And, look, I get it. One win does not a World Series make, no matter how impressive it might have been. The Rays have another shot at redemption tonight in Game 2. 

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So what has to happen for Tampa Bay to make this a competitive series?

Two big things come to mind, and let’s start here: The Rays have to make more contact. Look at this statistic.

Remember, Clayton Kershaw had a FOUR-YEAR stretch (2013-16) when he compiled a 1.88 ERA/2.03 FIP, with an average of 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings, 6.2 hits per nine and a K/BB ratio near 7.0. It’s right up there with the most brilliant stretches a starting pitcher has ever compiled — and, fun fact, Kershaw actually led the NL in ERA the two years before that stretch (2011-12) and the year after it (2017). And he never had a swing-and-miss rate higher than he did in Game 1 of the World Series against the Rays.

And, as a quick aside, let’s just throw this out there. Kershaw’s taken a lot of grief for his postseason hiccups, but he’s still been really, really good a lot of times. Game 1 was the 11th time in his postseason career that he’s thrown at least six innings and allowed one or fewer earned runs. Here’s where that places him, historically. 

Last thought on that: Yes, this is a big ask. No team struck out more in the regular season than the Rays, who whiffed 608 times. The Rays made up for that, at least in part, by drawing a lot of walks, too — only the Yankees had more than Tampa Bay's 243 walks this year. But the Dodgers don't walk many — their walk percentage of 6.7 was by far the best in the bigs this year — so that path to first base becomes difficult in the World Series. Patience isn't such a virtue when the opposing pitchers are filling up the strike zone. 

And Kevin Cash, the Rays manager, has to make timely pitching changes. I know, that sounds odd to say about a manager who pulled his starter in Game 7 of the ALCS when that starter (Charlie Morton) was at only 66 pitches with two outs in the sixth inning and still working on a shutout. 

But Cash left Tyler Glasnow out there too long in Game 1. The Dodgers are not your average offensive team. Yes, they have a lot of big bats but, more to the point here, they also have a way of wearing down opposing pitchers, working counts deep and fouling off — spoiling — many two-strike pitches. Think about this: In Game 1, 14 of the first 21 Glasnow faced saw at least five pitches in the at-bat, and six of those 14 worked the count full before the AB ended. 

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Through those first 21 batters — he got there with one out in the fifth inning — Glasnow had thrown 103 pitches. With runners on second and third, though, Cash left Glasnow in to face the left-handed slugger Max Muncy. Glasnow only topped 100 pitches twice during the regular season — 105 when he left the game in the sixth and 102 when he completed seven full innings. To reach the century mark in the fifth inning, with one out, means the pitcher has had a stressful outing. 

Anyway, Muncy — who had walked his previous time up — hit a soft grounder that plated Mookie Betts, and Will Smith followed with an RBI single that plated Corey Seager, and suddenly the Dodgers had a 3-1 lead. That advantage was 5-1 by the end of the inning, as reliever Ryan Yarbrough gave up a couple of more RBI singles. 

So, more contact, better pitching decisions. There's your oversimplified blueprint. Whaddya got in Game 2, Rays? 

Ryan Fagan

Ryan Fagan Photo

Ryan Fagan, the national MLB writer for The Sporting News, has been a Baseball Hall of Fame voter since 2016. He also dabbles in college hoops and other sports. And, yeah, he has way too many junk wax baseball cards.