Baseball's annoyances and frustrations have produced myriad Chicken Littles and Boys Who Cried Wolf eager to proclaim the sport's demise. It's never come close to death, of course, but it's also easy to see that MLB is definitely not in the best shape of its life.
The latest evidence of this came Thursday, when the owners and the MLBPA met for just 15 minutes in their latest, sporadic collective bargaining talks at a time when spring training should be in full swing.
But it's not just that spring training is delayed while the owners keep the players locked during CBA negotiations. It's not just that there's a significant threat of losing regular-season games. It's not just that attendance and viewership are in decline. And it's not just that we saw a sad and sobering drug trial unfold in Los Angeles that possibly points to major issues within modern baseball's culture.
No one of those things is enough to kill a sport that's been around for the better part of two centuries. But taken together, all at the same time, they create a cancerous cocktail that's eating away at the sport's health. And while all those things are important and worthy of discussion and action, the lockout is MLB's biggest and most threatening co-morbidity at the moment.
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A sport can't get healthy if it doesn't exist. And until the owners lift the lockout, until a new CBA agreement happens, until players actually take the field, MLB basically doesn't exist. And in 2022's entertainment universe, there's no surer path to pop cultural hospice than an audience that has grown apathetic and is ready to move on.
Commissioner Rob Manfred has said that any lost games resulting from the lockout would be "disastrous." He's right. Call me Chicken Little if you want, but if MLB loses a significant number of games this season, it may never recover. That doesn't mean MLB would die, but it does mean it could be left in an emaciated state for which the long-term prognosis is bleak.
This lockout is happening at a unique point in history, so previous recoveries aren't necessarily the way things would go this time. There is no guarantee most fans would just forgive and forget the way they did after the 1994-95 strike. I don't think the owners or the players fully comprehend how quickly baseball could be replaced in many people's leisure priorities.
I've written about the poll in December from Seton Hall University that showed interest in baseball already waning among people who describe themselves as die-hard sports fans. The same poll showed that a majority of the general public has no interest in MLB to begin with. These findings are not nothing, and it would be foolish for MLB to ignore them or take no steps to remedy them.
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At the moment, the fate of the 2022 MLB season is mostly in the hands of the owners. They could choose to lift the lockout, start spring training, proceed with a March 31 Opening Day and continue negotiating with the players under the terms of the expired agreement. There is some precedent for this in MLB history, even after the 1994 strike.
Of course, the counter is that the players could strike at some point this season and the owners don't want to risk it. Perhaps. But it's also possible that they could reach an agreement in April, May, June, July, August or September. At least games would be played in the meantime. At least fans would have something to enjoy. At least the sport would move forward.
MLB has reportedly told the players that Feb. 28 is the deadline for a CBA deal that would allow the regular season to start on time. And it was reported late Thursday that the two sides are likely to meet often, perhaps daily, starting next week. That's a good sign, but it doesn't mean a breakthrough is imminent. But there does seem to finally be some urgency, which is welcome, because starting the season on time, or very close to on time, is the only smart play if MLB hopes to regain a sense of health and attract new fans.
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It's almost certain Major League Baseball will never literally die. But it can certainly become a third-tier entertainment option patronized only by die-hards and the occasionally curious ("It's TruTV, your home of the 2032 World Series!").
So what will the 2022 season ultimately look like? What's the magic number for maintaining any feeling of a normal year? On one hand, anything short of a full 162-game schedule is a massive failure. On the other, anything that feels close to normal would be welcome. But anything that feels far from normal — another 60-game season, or even an 80-game season — would be MLB stepping on yet another rake.
Each day the lockout lingers is another step toward an unpleasant place that offers no certainty of future prosperity.
Ultimately, a 2022 season truncated in any significant way would only grow the gap between MLB and a sports public that has increasingly found better ways to spend its time.
