Canada World Baseball Classic tiebreakers scenario: How Team Canada can make it out of Pool C

In order for Canada to get into the quarterfinals of the World Baseball Classic, it's simple: Win, and you're in. 

Canada currently sits in a three-way tie for first place in Pool C at the 2023 tournament. One final game is left on the schedule for the team, and that's a matchup against Mexico. 

A win over Mexico pushes Canada to 3-1 and a spot in the quarterfinals. The same can be said about Mexico, which only needs a win over Canada to get out of Group C.

Heading into Wednesday's final day of pool play, the standings are as follows:

Great Britain has already been eliminated. It gave every team it played except Canada some serious issues, but a 1-3 record isn't going to cut it to advance. 

Even if Canada loses, there is a chance the team gets in. The United States finishes group play against Colombia, and if the USA were to lose, that could put a wrinkle into Pool C. 

Here's what has to happen for Canada to advance to the World Baseball Classic quarterfinals.

MORE: World Baseball Classic daily TV schedule, bracket, results

Canada World Baseball Classic scenarios

Generally speaking, 3-1 is a sure thing to get a team to move forward. Going 2-2 often leads to some messy tiebreakers, which will be laid out below.

With three teams entering the final day in Pool C at 2-1, at least one of those teams is inevitably going to need some help to move on.

MORE: World Baseball Classic tiebreaker rules in 2023

Scenario A: Canada beats Mexico

If Team Canada beats Mexico, they're in the quarterfinals and will either play Venezuela or the winner of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, depending on the result of the USA-Colombia game.

• If USA wins: Team Canada finishes second in Pool C by virtue of a tiebreaker, would play Venezuela.
• If Colombia wins: Team Canada finishes first in Pool C, would play winner of Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic.

Scenario B: Canada loses to Mexico

If Team Canada loses, it needs help from Colombia. Canada would be sitting at 2-2 and the only chance it would have of advancing is if Colombia beats the United States.

• If USA wins: Canada finishes third in Pool C ay 2-2 and does not advance. Mexico and USA would be 3-1 and finish first and second, respectively, in the pool.
• If Colombia wins: There is a three-way tie for second with Colombia, USA and Canada all at 2-2. The first tiebreaker, head-to-head, would not decide a winner, as all three are 1-1 against one another. From there, we would move to the second tiebreaker: runs allowed per defensive out.

Here's how these teams shake out in that department heading into the final game:

Canada is behind both the USA and Colombia in this tiebreaker. The team would need both of the other two squads to give up tons of runs in their final game while holding Mexico to a minimal amount.