It's October baseball, and the Blue Jays are smack-dab in the middle of the playoff race.
Last season, Toronto surprisingly made the postseason for the first time since 2016 thanks to the expanded format amid the COVID-19 pandemic. The Blue Jays were swept in the wild-card round by the Rays, but that taste of playoff action laid a foundation for this young squad. (The 2021 season is back to the normal format of 10 teams advancing.)
While the team has been bolstered by the play of the likes of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Marcus Semien and Robbie Ray, a slot in this year's postseason gala was never guaranteed — even when the calendar turned to September. In fact, per FanGraphs, Toronto's chances of making the playoffs were considerably lower at the start of the month:
- Sept. 1: 10 percent chance of making the postseason
- Sept. 7: 37 percent
- Sept. 14: 72.5 percent
What a mighty turn. Within two weeks, the Boys of Summer from Canada had put themselves in position to earn a playoff berth.
Of course, there are still some games to be played. Here's an in-depth look at how the Blue Jays' 2021 American League wild-card run is going:
Last updated: 1:58 a.m. ET Oct. 3. All probabilities from FanGraphs.
AL wild-card playoff standings 2021
1. Boston Red Sox (91-70)
- Remaining games: 1
- Remaining opponents: at Nationals (Oct. 3)
- Win percentage: .565
- Playoff probability: 89.6 percent (up from 87.4 percent)
Boston is tied with New York after a win over Washington and a Yankees loss to Tampa Bay.
2. New York Yankees (91-70)
- Remaining games: 1
- Remaining opponents: vs. Rays (Oct 3)
- Win percentage: .565
- Playoff probability: 80.3 percent (down from 94.8 percent)
New York is 7-3 in its last 10 games.
————————————
3. Toronto Blue Jays (90-71; games back: 1.0)
- Remaining games: 1
- Remaining opponents: vs. Orioles (Oct. 3)
- Win percentage: .559
- Playoff probability: 19.2 percent (up from 17.5 percent)
Toronto stayed alive with a win over Baltimore.
4. Seattle Mariners (90-71; games back: 1.0)
- Remaining games: 1
- Remaining opponents: vs. Angels (Oct. 3)
- Win percentage: .559
- Playoff probability: 11.0 percent (up from 8.4 percent)
Seattle stayed alive with a comeback win over the LA Angels.
MORE: Why the Blue Jays would be the scariest team to face in 2021 MLB playoffs
Officially eliminated from contention: Oakland Athletics (eliminated Sept. 29), Cleveland Indians (eliminated Sept. 23), Detroit Tigers (eliminated Sept. 22), Los Angeles Angels (eliminated Sept. 22), Kansas City Royals (eliminated Sept. 17), Minnesota Twins (eliminated Sept. 14), Texas Rangers, Baltimore Orioles.