While the sports world will be dominated by Game 7 of the NBA Eastern Conference Semifinals series between the Celtics and 76ers, the evening TV market should belong to the series finale between the Red Sox and Cardinals at Fenway (7:10 p.m. ET, ESPN). The visiting Cards currently sit as -120 favorites with a +120 on their -1.5 run line. We don't quite know which team will win this Sunday night showdown, but we do have a handful of props to recommend with confidence.
A preseason favorite amongst pundits and betting analysts, St. Louis stumbled out of the gate this season. The bats were sleepy, the rotation was banged up and struggling, and the bullpen seemed allergic to holds and saves. But lately, the Cardinals have shown some signs of life, putting together two comeback wins in a row over Boston and emerging victorious in five of their past six contests overall.
The Sox, meanwhile, are starting to slide. Alex Cora's club has dropped four of its past five games, allowing three runs in each of the past two ninth innings against St. Louis. These games don't just hurt — they sting Red Sox Nation — which feels like it's been a lifetime since Boston beat the Cardinals in the 2004 and 2013 World Series.
Let's get into our best bets for the Sunday night marquee game between the Red Sox and the Cardinals, including our favorite over/under play and the top player props on the BetMGM market.
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Red Sox-Cardinals Sunday night showdown: Best bets
Total runs: OVER 10 (-115)
Miles Mikolas and Corey Kluber will take the mound this evening, which should raise the eyebrows of both lineups. Both veterans have been abysmal for the majority of the young season, Mikolas has a 5.40 ERA and 1.66 WHIP for the Cardinals, while Kluber has a 6.29 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. Seriously, talk about yuck vs. poo.
At first glance of the game logs, the mustachioed Mikolas has allowed fewer runs of late. However, he has still allowed seven-plus base-runners in seven of his eight starts this season. And if you look at his batted-ball data, you would understand completely why we're betting on him getting banged around at hitter-friendly Fenway Park. Mikolas allows a hard-hit rate of over 44 percent and batters have an average exit velocity of 91.1 miles per hour against him. He clearly misses Yadier Molina, the legendary Cards backstop who retired after last season. New catcher Willson Contreras and Mikolas have looked like oil and water.
On the other side, Kluber seems like a different player than the guy who won two Cy Youngs and took down an ERA title earlier in his career. He has failed to log six innings in six of his seven starts, and surrendered three-plus earned runs five different times. And the long-ball has killed him — his 5.8 percent home run rate ranks amongst the highest in the league, as he's allowed nine dingers in just 34 innings.
We see this game going into the teens, so you're getting extremely good value at 10 with very little juice. Seven of the past 11 Red Sox games have reached 11-plus runs, as have four of the Cardinals' past seven. Lock it in!
Masataka Yoshida, OF, Red Sox — OVER 1.5 hits (+190)
In our AL Rookie of the Year best bets column on Friday, we recommended betting Yoshida at +150 to win the coveted award for most outstanding first-year player. Today we're suggesting you pound the OVER on his hits prop, which pays off at a bettor-friendly +190. Yoshida has multiple hits in six of Boston's 10 games so far this May, and Mikolas has given up 57 hits in 41.2 innings. Go with the law of averages and back the rookie tonight.
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Nolan Gorman, 2B, Cardinals — OVER 0.5 RBIs (+450)
Gorman has four RBIs over the Cardinals' past three games, and at least one in each. What's most remarkable about that stat is that he came in as a pinch hitter in two of those three games. Two homers and four RBIs in six at-bats? Yeah, the dude's hot. He also has a .333 average against Kluber — now, granted he's only faced him three times, but still .333 is .333! We like the young infielder's chances of driving in another run under the Fenway lights tonight.
Corey Kluber, SP, Red Sox — OVER 5.5 hits allowed (-110)
Kluber has surrendered six-plus hits in three of seven starts this season, and he's allowed 23 hits over his past four outings and 12 over the past two. As we have alluded to multiple times, we think tonight in Fenway will be an offensive party, a lot of which will come from the recently-awakened bats of the Cardinals.
