Happy Thursday, everybody! We're thirsty for some MLB action, and we're hungry for some player prop parlay winnings on SuperDraft. And while we only have four games on the docket this evening, we have plenty of juicy over/under bets worth our while on the SD prop market.
We've specifically pinpointed sluggers and perennial MVP candidates Pete Alonso and Paul Goldschmidt in the unofficial game of the night, Mets vs. Cardinals. We should see plenty of offense in this one, with struggling veteran pitcher Adam Wainwright going against top Goldschmidt victim José Quintana at Citi Field.
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Below, we'll break down four of our favorite player props on SuperDraft for Thursday night's MLB slate. Users don't necessarily have to parlay all four picks together, though. Instead, you could make separate two-legged parlays to increase your win probability or attempt to hit it big if all four picks come through.
Best MLB prop bets today: SuperDraft player prop picks for Friday 8/11
*10x potential payout if users parlay all four correct picks
1. Pete Alonso, 1B, Mets at Cardinals — OVER 6.5 fantasy points (4/5 confidence)
We always relish the opportunity to bet on the Polar Bear — basically the only good thing about watching the Mets these days — so we're happy to take him here in a plus matchup against St. Louis veteran starter Adam Wainwright. Alonso has a whopping 36 homers and 89 RBIs on the season, and he should be on dinger watch this thirsty Thursday.
Alonso has reached base safely in five of the nine plate appearances he has logged against Wainwright, including two doubles and two walks. The All-Star slugger also has a homer, a double, a single, four walks, and two RBIs over New York's past five games.
Meanwhile, Wainwright has been abysmal this season. His ERA and WHIP are up to 8.78 and 2.09, and he has surrendered a whopping 15 earned runs on 18 hits over his past two starts. Waino could be in for a Polar Vortex tonight at Citi Field tonight.
Just to be sure, we're going with the OVER on 6.5 fantasy points — not 1.5 bases — in case Wainwright walks Alonso a couple times or something. Nothing's worse than losing a stud slugger's total bases OVER because the starter wouldn't pitch to him.
If you're not familiar with how fantasy points work, here's the skinny:
| Stat | Pts per |
| Singles | 2 |
| Doubles | 4 |
| Triples | 6 |
| Home Runs | 8 |
| RBIs | 2 |
| Runs | 2 |
| Hitter Walks | 2 |
| Stolen Bases | 3 |
| Hit By Pitch | 2 |
MORE SUPERDRAFT DFS & FANTASY PROPS: How to play SuperDraft
2. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Cardinals vs. Mets — OVER 1.5 bases (4/5 confidence)
Goldy always feels like a good bet on the player prop market — he's a Hall-of-Fame batter and above-average baserunner who never wavers with his fundamentals or approach. But tonight we really like the first baseman, as he's batting .647 and slugging 1.353 lifetime against the Mets' José Quintana. What!? Those numbers look made up!
Do not adjust your laptop resolution — those stats are realer than Real Deal Holyfield. And all you Goldy bettors are 'bout to know just how I feel! In 17 career at-bats against the Mets southpaw, Goldschmidt has 11 hits including three homers and three doubles. Lord a' mercy. Fire this one up like Snoop and Dave Chappelle in the '90s.
3. Trevor Story, SS, Red Sox at Nationals — OVER 1.5 bases (3.5/5 confidence)
Two bases might seem like a high benchmark for Story just eight games into his return from the IL, but we're confident in the shortstop given how strong he has looked over the past few days and how much success he has enjoyed throughout his career against Patrick Corbin.
Story has compiled two-plus bases three times over his past five games, including a 4-for-4 night with three doubles against former Sox pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez. He's 10-for-30 lifetime against Corbin, with three home runs, three doubles, and a gargantuan .333/.444/.800 slash line. Story time!
4. Riley Greene, OF, Tigers at Guardians — OVER 0.5 singles (3/5 confidence)
Greene gets 3/5 confidence because we would always rather bet the OVER on "bases" than "singles," but we still have confidence that the speedy outfielder can log at least one single against struggling Guardians pitcher Xzavion Curry this evening.
Greene is 2-for-5 against Curry lifetime, and both of his hits against the righty have been one-baggers. We're not in love with this prop, but if you're married to the idea of doing a four-prop parlay, this is a decent fourth leg to include.
