The Blue Jays improved to 13 games over .500 on Tuesday after securing a 2-1 victory in the first game of their interleague series against the Phillies. Toronto will look to continue that momentum tonight as ace Kevin Gausman takes the mound against Phillies stud Aaron Nola (7:07 p.m. ET). As always, we're building a SuperDraft player prop parlay for this Wednesday night duel.
The Jays should be excited to see Nola, who has surrendered five earned runs in two of his past three games and sports a 4.49 ERA. Toronto managed just one run on three hits in seven innings against Phillies ace Zack Wheeler on Tuesday, but they teed off on Cubs righty Jameson Taillon on Sunday (eight ERs on eight hits, two walks across 3.0 IP). John Schneider's club ultimately scored 11 runs in that game, just one week after putting 13 runs on the Red Sox.
However, if you look beyond the 11-run game against Chicago and 13-run affair at Fenway, you'll see that the Blue Jays only scored 15 total runs across the other seven contests over the past nine days. That translates to a measly 2.1 runs per game, which won't typically get the job done against pesky contenders like the Phillies.
We're not getting the job done with our SuperDraft player prop parlays right now, either, but that's why we win 10 times our entry when we win four-leggers — because it's damn hard! We're committed to breaking out of this funk, and we're confident in our ability to bring you a W to close out your hump day in style.
Not familiar with SD? Sign up now! Users can pick their favorite over/unders via SuperDraft's Fantasy Props feature, bringing them closer to the action while having a chance to win cash prizes. You win three times the amount you wager if your two-legged player prop parlay hits, and the more legs you add to your player prop parlay, the larger your potential payout becomes.
Below, we'll break down four of our favorite SuperDraft player props for the Blue Jays-Phillies game on Wednesday evening. Users don't necessarily have to parlay all four picks together, though. Instead, you could make separate two-legged parlays to increase your win probability or attempt to hit it big if all four picks come through. Good luck, have fun, and enjoy your night!
Best Blue Jays-Phillies prop bets today: SuperDraft player prop picks for Wednesday 8/16
*10x potential payout if users parlay all four correct picks
1. Aaron Nola, SP, Phillies — UNDER 6 strikeouts (4/5 confidence)
Of the eight Blue Jays in today's lineup that Aaron Nola has faced throughout his career, they have only struck out 10 times in 53 at-bats. That's an 18.8-percent strikeout rate, vastly lower than Nola's career K rate of 27.2 percent.
Toronto, in general, does not strike out that much. The Blue Jays have been retired by way of the K just 8.1 times per game (seventh-lowest rate in the majors), and even fewer times at home (7.74 per game). On Tuesday, with Philly putting an even better pitcher on the mound in Wheeler, Toronto got punched out just six times the whole game.
Bet the UNDER here. Nola is not the pitcher he once was, and he managed just six Ks his last time out against a terrible Nationals team. It may seem like a risky number to target for a pitcher who fans 9.3 batters per nine innings, but you should be safe here, especially if he takes a beating and gets pulled early.
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2. Bryce Harper, OF/DH, Phillies — OVER 6 fantasy points (3.5/5 confidence)
Harper has been scorching at the plate over the past few weeks, posting 22 hits over his past 21 games and eight extra-base hits, seven runs, and seven RBIs in 13 contests since the start of August.
The two-time MVP also has a great track record of success against Kevin Gausman, with a .429/.519/.571 slash line across 27 plate appearances against the ace. Harper went 0-for-4 on Tuesday, a rarity for him this time of the year, so look for him to be extra motivated to put some runs on the board tonight.
3. Paul DeJong, INF, Blue Jays — OVER 0.5 bases (3/5 confidence)
DeJong has a lifetime .286 batting average against Nola, who has surrendered 28 hits over his past four starts. Five of those hits have been home runs, so it's not like the one-time All-Star is giving up soft contact.
In 29.1 innings pitched in the second half of this season, the righty has allowed 56 total bases. All we need is one from DeJong, a bar we think is quite attainable from the No. 9 hitter this evening.
4. Kevin Gausman, SP, Blue Jays — UNDER 7 strikeouts (1.5/5 confidence)
We're giving this a 1.5 confidence rating, as we would most likely just fade this prop altogether. In Gausman's past five outings (starting with the most recent), he has recorded strikeout totals of six, six, nine, nine, and seven. It's all over the map.
On top of that, the Phillies can be a little inconsistent when it comes to plate discipline. Some nights they rarely whiff; other nights, it's like they can't hit the water if they fell out of the ocean. If Gausman's on, he can probably reach 10 Ks by the seventh. If he doesn't have his best stuff — or he's inducing a bunch of ground balls (16 over his past two outings) — he might be stuck to six strikeouts for the third consecutive start.
