Happy Fourth of July! It's a holiday that celebrates all the important things: freedom, fireworks, food, family, and friends — not to mention baseball! Thursday's loaded 15-game MLB slate includes Astros vs. Blue Jays (1:07 p.m. ET, Fubo), which should be one of the better games of the afternoon.
The Sporting News has you covered with a full betting prediction for this Independence Day duel, including matchup details, final score prediction, best bets, top player props, and more. It's as plentiful an offering as Miki Sudo's practice meals ahead of the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest!
Let's get right to our betting preview for Astros vs. Blue Jays, and dish out our favorite picks for this Canadian clash. Good luck, and have a happy and healthy holiday with your loved ones!
Astros vs. Blue Jays probable pitchers, betting odds
| Team | Starting pitchher | ML | RL | O/U |
| Astros @ | F. Valdez (6-5, 4.11 ERA) | -115 | -1.5 (+142) | O8.5 (-108) |
| Blue Jays | C. Bassitt (7-6, 3.24 ERA) | -105 | +1.5 (-170) | U8.5 (-112) |
The Astros enter the holiday as slight favorites, having won eight of their past 10 games and embarking on a bit of a scoring bonanza in the process. Houston sits second in the AL West, two games behind the emergent but suddenly-slumping Mariners.
Toronto has endured a rough ride of a 2024 campaign, sitting eight games below .500 and dead last in the AL East. The Blue Jays have lost six of their past 10 games and they even have a losing record at Rogers Centre on the season.
Astros vs. Blue Jays best bets
- Astros (-115) moneyline
- Total UNDER 3.5 runs first 3 innings (-188)
- Total OVER 8.5 runs (-108)
- Yordan Alvarez OVER 1.5 bases (-105)
- Alex Bregman OVER 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-135)
- Framber Valdez OVER 4.5 strikeouts (+110)
It's been a tough year for Toronto, which has struggled to contain opposing bats while also not getting anyone outside of Vlad Guerrero Jr. going. Looking back at just the Blue Jays' past 12 games, the average combined run total has been a whopping 11.2 per game. Before you get excited and think that's a good thing, you should know that Toronto's opponents have scored 6.66 runs per game during that stretch (ahh, 6.66 — the mark of the beast!).
The Jays have also gone 4-10 over their past 14 games, and pitchers like Chris Bassitt can't get any semblance of run support when they impress on the mound. Bassitt has allowed two runs or fewer in five straight outings, but Toronto has just one win in that span. He's given up more than three earned runs just once in 14 starts since mid-April, yet he's just 6-4 in that stretch.
The Astros, meanwhile, have started to put it all together — and they appear to be gunning for the Mariners atop the AL West. An 8-2 stretch has seen Houston outscore opponents 69-42. That's an average scoring margin of 2.7 runs, for anyone without their calculator app handy.
Still, betting on Framber Valdez always feels volatile. He's very inconsistent — some days he holds strong opponents to one run or fewer, other times he gets bombed by the Giants or Mets on the road. One Valdez bet to consider is his plus-odds OVER of 4.5 strikeouts, as he has struck out five or more batters in three straight games and Toronto batters have been mowed down nine times per game over the Jays' past three.
The safer bets in this one feel like the OVER, the total bases prop for Yordan Alvarez (who has slugged 1.333 against Bassitt in his career), and the hits + runs + RBIs OVER for Alex Bregman (8-23 lifetime vs. Bassitt). And if you're picking a winner, it has to be the Astros. Toronto can't get out of its own way lately, and Houston's bats have been far more potent than the Jays.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Astros 6, Blue Jays 4 — Houston records the win (-115) and just barely covers the run line, while the total goes OVER the 8.5 projection (-108).
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