With Aaron Judge hitting free agency, there was a chance that the rest of the AL East would no longer face the terrorizing superstar in pinstripes nearly as often as they have had since Judge entered the league in 2016. If Judge signed with the Giants or even the Padres, it would have sent the reigning AL MVP to the other side of the country, and teams like the Blue Jays could rejoice.
Well, not so fast my friend. After all the speculation pertaining to Judge's destination and the early, incorrect reporting of the outfielder signing with San Francisco, Judge is staying in The Bronx. He and the Yankees have reportedly agreed to a nine-year, $360 million contract, making him the highest-paid Yankee ever.
Teams like the Giants have every right to be upset after missing out on the big right-handed bat who broke the AL record for most home runs in a single season with 62. However, the Blue Jays and the AL East all must be shaking their heads, as one of the most dangerous hitters stays in the division.
The Judge signing impacts the Blue Jays right now, and in the future as well.
They will continue to face the vaunted slugger on a regular basis for the next nine years, while Toronto also has to begin thinking about what deals the club must make with their own players in the upcoming offseasons.
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Aaron Judge stays in the AL East
The obvious repercussion of Judge staying in The Bronx is that the Blue Jays will be seeing a lot more of him for the foreseeable future. With the new schedule put in place in 2023, had Judge signed with the Giants, the Blue Jays would have seen him three to four times a year. Instead, there are 13 games against the Yankees on the Blue Jays' schedule.
There is no team that the slugger has faced more in his career than the Blue Jays. Judge has suited up in 95 games against Toronto, and has done quite a bit of damage. In his career, he has hit .292 with a .394 OBP and .575 SLG when facing the Blue Jays, adding 28 home runs, 58 RBIs and 99 hits.
In comparison to the rest of the AL East, Judge only has better numbers against Baltimore. While he has slashed .310/.434/.699 in 90 games against the Orioles, the Yankees outfielder owns a line of .254/.355/.470 against the Rays in 90 contests, and one of .245/.370/.478 in 84 matchups with the Red Sox.
Judge has more hits against the Blue Jays (99) than any other opponent, and only the Orioles have allowed more home runs (35 to 28), RBIs (79 to 58) and extra-base hits (53 to 40).
This past season was a down season of sorts for Judge when he batted against Toronto pitching, a surprise considering the career year he had. He ended 2022 with a .239 average against the Blue Jays, with four home runs, 11 RBIs and 12 runs scored that spanned across 19 games.
Out of the 20 teams Judge faced in 2022, his batting average, on-base percentage and slugging against the Blue Jays all ranked 15th.
With that said, there have been a number of other seasons where Judge has terrorized the Blue Jays. In 2019, he batted .404 with 21 hits, four HRs and seven RBIs against Toronto and in 2017, he owned a .359 batting average in 18 contests with the Blue Jays while adding 23 hits, 10 HRs and 20 RBIs.
If the Blue Jays haven't figured out how to contain the powerful bat of Judge yet, they will have nine more years to try and do so.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s eventual mega-contract
Judge is a generational talent that the Yankees frankly could not afford to walk away from. They almost let him slip away by lowballing him on the initial offer before the season, a deal that Judge said he was "upset" by. He turned down the seven-year, $213.5 million contract extension offer, bet on himself and won the 2022 AL MVP while breaking the AL record for HRs in the process.
The reward was an additional two years on his contract and $130 million more. Judge is 31 years old and those extra two years on the deal will be his age 38 and 39 seasons.
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That's something that the Blue Jays should take away when looking at their future and the superstar they have on their roster, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. The first baseman will eventually need a long-term deal, but the Blue Jays still have three more years of club control.
Now, there are a number of differences between the two that favor the Blue Jays. One is that Guerrero Jr. is a first baseman, a position that is a lot less taxing on the body than outfield. There are still opportunities to get hurt, but fewer than if he was roaming the outfield like Judge is. Something that may play into a factor when assessing the effects of a long-term deal.
The other, and this is much more significant, is age. Judge was 31 years old when he hit the free agency market. Guerrero Jr. will be entering his age 27 season when he is set to become a free agent if a deal isn't made earlier. That's a major difference, especially when considering the length of the contract. A nine-year deal would keep Guerrero Jr. in Toronto until he's 35. Considering his age and position, there should be a lot less hesitation to give someone like Guerrero Jr. a longer deal than there was for Judge.
The Yankees made a gamble and tried to lock in Judge for a shorter term and less money. It didn't work, and now they'll have to pay for it by the back end of his new contract.
The Blue Jays front office must take note and adjust their plans accordingly with their own slugger.
