It is generally foolish to draw conclusions from the opening round of the season, and that might be especially true for a weekend on which a return to full-capacity crowds injected energy and emotion back into Premier League football.
There were bound to be some shocks - some explosive moments catching visiting sides flat-footed. But Manchester City’s defeat at Tottenham Hotspur on Sunday was predictable, confirming our pre-season suspicions and setting off the alarm bells.
Not for the first time Pep Guardiola was out-thought by Nuno Espirito Santo. Not for the first time City were undone by a pretty simple counter-attacking approach. And all of a sudden, as the speed and emotionality of Premier League football returns to its pre-pandemic levels, the issues that plagued Man City prior to their post-autumn blitz in 2020-21 look set to return.
Before we delve into how Spurs won the tactical battle, it is worth reminding ourselves just how ominous things looked for City last November.
Eighth in the table with 20 points from 12 games – and 101 from their last 50 – there was widespread concern that the Guardiola era was coming to an end; that this ageing team had grown a little weary of Pep’s intensity.
A waning press and softness through central midfield was allowing opponents to counter too easily as the manager’s penchant for silky all-rounders threatened to make City into a too-blunt and too-predictable caricature of a Guardiola team.
Solving pandemic football by slowing the game right down, sucking games into a vortex of midfield possession, was one of his greatest achievements. But as the Premier League bounces back – and 34 goals, wild attacking football, and piercing counter-attacks across the division suggests it has – the issues of last autumn could haunt Man City again. Their defeat at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium would suggest as much.
Nuno’s unusual deployment of a permanently high and narrow front three (Stephen Bergwijn, Lucas Moura, and Son Heung-min never tracked back or moved to the wings) ensured Spurs could break quickly. Their closeness not only allowed for quick one-twos between them – as for the winning goal – but also meant Tottenham dramatically outnumbered Man City in midfield.
Nuno correctly predicted City would under-stock this area, leaving Fernandinho alone as Jack Grealish and Ilkay Gundogan moved wide to create from the half-spaces. Damningly, it is exactly how Nuno’s Wolves beat Man City twice in 2019.
Guardiola should have learnt his lesson and reinforced midfield either with an inverted full-back alongside Fernandinho or by using a 4-2-3-1. Instead we had Guardiola football at its worst: at its most passive and vulnerable, as we saw repeatedly over that 50-game period between August 2019 and November 2020.
Perhaps he simply thought City could continue the calm possession of last year’s title win. That certainly seemed the case as they laboured on the ball, horribly ponderous in the second half and clearly lacking a Harry Kane-like striker to act as a central fulcrum. The raucous atmosphere in north London would not allow a quiet, ambling contest.
Guardiola has to readapt, has to find a way to re-energise the team to levels they haven’t reached for more than two years. Six of his first-team regulars are in their 30s. This is not an easy fix.
More worrying still, Guardiola got a lot of the key decisions wrong on Sunday - even looking beyond his decision not to provide Fernandinho with support.
Benjamin Mendy was a strange selection given Tottenham’s pace on the break - which was not a surprise considering Nuno played this team and formation throughout pre-season - and the left-back was his usual unreliable self.
Starting Ferran Torres up front clearly backfired; the Spaniard is completely unable to move like a No.9 while the substitutions were baffling. A full 10 minutes was eaten up, and momentum lost, by the brief decision to play Gabriel Jesus on the left wing.
The main positive for Guardiola was the performance of Grealish, who worked intelligently with Raheem Sterling to occupy the left half-space and left wing. This will be a fruitful partnership and a great source of creativity throughout 2021-22. City were simply unlucky to find Japhet Tanganga in inspired form.
But even Grealish’s role at Man City is a worrying sign for the future under Guardiola. Did Man City really need to spend so much of their budget on upgrading Bernardo Silva when defensive midfield is so light?
It is a signing that reinforces the concern Guardiola is overly drawn to nimble playmakers, ignoring the need for more brutality, more rough edges.
It bears repeating: Man City have not played at the required intensity – have not attacked urgently enough or pressed aggressively enough – for capacity-stadium Premier League football in more than two years.
Guardiola has not solved his central midfield issues, has not found a new Fernandinho, and has not yet replaced Sergio Aguero. Last season was a huge success - but it was also an 86-point title. They surely need to improve on that total to retain their crown.
Judging by Sunday’s defeat, Man City will struggle to equal it.