The 2019 U.S. Open is upon us, and while I won’t be giving out any PGA DFS picks in this article, we’ll be taking a first look at the course set of Pebble Beach Golf Links, as well as looking at a few trends from the last few U.S. Opens to help inform our betting picks.
By now most golf fans should be fairly familiar with Pebble Beach, as it is one of the most iconic courses in the world. The Par-3 seventh hole and the Par-5 18th immediately come to mind as two of the most beautiful holes in all of golf. Pebble Beach also plays host to the annual AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am PGA Tour event, but I wouldn’t worry too much about how the course is set up for that event. Pebble Beach will be a much more stern test for the U.S. Open after the USGA has gotten their hands on the course
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The layout will be reduced to a Par 71 (instead of the usual Par 72), with the second hole being changed from an easy Par 5, to a 510-yard beast of a Par 4 that will likely play over a half-shot over par for the tournament.
Pebble Beach will still play on the short end for a modern professional tournament at only 7,075 yards, but don’t be fooled to think that short means easy. Early reports from Pebble suggest that the rough is absolutely brutal and that the fairways have been tightened in preparation for this event, so finding the fairways will be crucial for anyone looking to win. Pebble Beach has always been a course where players are able to go less-than-driver off of the tee, and that should be no different this week given the brutal rough. Upon first glance, golfers will likely only be forced to take out driver on six holes.
Pebble Beach is infamous for how small it’s greens are, and they will be even tougher to hit this week as the summer winds will likely be blowing off the Pacific Ocean, causing havoc with players distance control on approach shots. This is going to be a week where virtually every player in the field is going to be forced to scramble for par on multiple occasions per round, as hitting every green in regulation is a near impossible task given the small greens and tough conditions.
Once on the greens, players will be faced with lightning fast poa annua greens that will roll 14-plus on the stimpmeter. While putting is nearly impossible to predict on a week to week basis, we see year after year at the U.S. Open that the guys who win are the ones who are able to putt well on the slick surfaces inside of 10 feet, usually to save par.
Last 5 Winners:
2018: Brooks Koepka (Shinnecock Hills) (+3300)
2017: Brooks Koepka (Erin Hills) (+4000)
2016: Dustin Johnson (Oakmont CC) (+1400)
2015: Jordan Spieth (Chambers Bay) (+800)
2014: Martin Kaymer (Pinehurst #2) (+4000)
The last five winners of the U.S. Open have been a mix of favorites (Johnson, Spieth) and mid-range golfers (Koepka x2, Kaymer) in terms of their pre-tournament betting odds. Pebble Beach is a course that doesn’t give a massive advantage to the long hitters, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see players with longer odds contend this week. After all, Graeme McDowell was +8000 when he won the U.S. Open the last time it was played here in 2010. Going back to '03, however, we have seen multiple golfers come from seemingly nowhere to win this event, including Lucas Glover in '09 (+25000), Angel Cabrera in '07 (+20000), Michael Campbell in '05 (+500000), and Ratief Goosen in '04 (+150000), which tells us that U.S.Open setups bring more longshots into play.
U.S. Open History at Pebble Beach
2010: Graeme McDowell, winning score: E
2000: Tiger Woods, winning score: -12 (note: 2nd place was +3)
1992: Tom Kite, winning score: -3
1982: Tom Watson, winning score: -6
1972: Jack Nicklaus, winning score: +2
The history of the U.S. Open at Pebble Beach shows that we can expect the winning score to likely be close to even par. The lone exception here is Tiger Woods’s legendary performance at the 2000 U.S. Open where he blitzed the field by 15 strokes and posted -12. That Woods performance remains to this day one of the single greatest performances in golfing history, and I would be genuinely shocked if any player is able to flirt with double-digits under par for the week, putting scoring at an absolute premium.
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Key Stats
Driving Accuracy
Approach > 150 Yards
Strokes Gained: Around the Green
Par 4 Scoring
Bogey Avoidance
US Open betting advice
Outright Bets to Consider
*odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Dustin Johnson 8/1
We are 2-0 with betting favorites in Majors this season after hitting Tiger Woods at The Masters and Brooks Koepka at the PGA Championship. I’ve had Johnson pegged as a U.S. Open bet at Pebble Beach for the last year, and I want all the shares of Johnson that I can get my hands on this week. DJ had a Sunday collapse at the U.S. Open here back in 2010, so this is a nice redemption narrative for him this week. He plays the Pro-Am event each year at Pebble Beach and has a great track record. His wedge play is among the best in the world when he is playing well, and he will be one of the few players in the field that sets up well for both the long Par 5s and 4s that this layout will offer up, as well as the less-than-driver holes that require supreme accuracy off the tee.
Jason Day 30/1
Day has a fantastic track record at Pebble Beach during the Pro-Am event, and he should be an even better fit for this course given the tougher conditions. Day is a player that I always like when the setup calls for excellent scrambling, and he is one of the better players on the PGA Tour when playing the wind despite having a high ball flight. Day seems due for a win, and his 30/1 number provides one of the few value spots in that range.
Matt Kuchar 50/1
I’ve already bet on Kuchar at The Masters and PGA Championship, and to be honest I’ll probably also bet him at The Open Championship in addition to this week. I really don’t understand his 50/1 number after he played great last week at the Canadian Open. Pebble Beach is a nice layout for an accuracy-based player like Kuchar who doesn’t have the power off the tee to overpower a longer golf course. Kuchar is having by far the best season of his professional career, and it would be fitting for him to top it off with his first career Major.
Patrick Reed 110/1
Reed is a player that I love to hate and someone that makes me uneasy whenever I bet on him. However, his number this week is just outrageous at 110/1 on DraftKings Sports Book. Reed has a stellar U.S. Open track record with finishes of 4th, T13, MC, and T14 in his past four U.S. Opens. Reed has had a mediocre season by his standards with only one top-10 finish, but he sets up perfectly for Pebble Beach with his short game and wedge play. Again, 110/1 for a player that has won multiple big events with elite fields over the past five years is just an insane value.
Kevin Kisner 175/1
There is a ton of value in 100/1-and-over range, and Kisner is my favorite pick of the lot at 175/1. Kisner will always struggle at courses that put an emphasis on length off the tee, but he should set up nicely for the layout of Pebble Beach. Kisner has an excellent short game and finished a respectable T28 at the Pro-Am back in February. He has already beaten a world class field once this year at the WGC-Match Play, so there is no reason to think that he doesn’t have the quality to win a Major at a course that should mask some of his shortcomings (length off the tee), while highlighting what he does well (short game and putting).