Sony Open 2023 golf betting guide: Odds, tips, predictions for PGA event at Wai’alae in Honolulu

The 2023 Sony Open tees off Thursday, Jan. 12 at the Wai'alae Country Club in Honolulu, Hawaii. The popular tournament marks the second major PGA event of the calendar year to be played in America's 50th state. The tourney will be televised on GOLF Channel and features a purse of $7.9 million. We have all the tournament details, betting odds, and tips to get you ready to bet on a winner this weekend. 

Sony Open 2023: Tournament and course description

The Sony Open was first played at Wai’alae Country Club in 1965. Just outside of Honolulu, the classic course was designed by famed golf architect Seth Raynor in 1927. The course is defined by angled fairways, an excellent variety of par-4’s, eighty-three bunkers, and five holes where water is in play.

• The course is a par-70 layout stretching 7,044 yards.
• The scorecard shows twelve Par 4’s, two Par 5’s and four par-3’s.
• Just ten feet above sea level, this classic design isn’t long, but with strategic doglegs and challenging fairway bunkers many players will leave driver in the bag most of the round.

MORE: Watch the Sony Open live with Sling TV

The course is covered in Bermuda grass, a very common agronomic choice in warm coastal climates. This type of grass tends to be very grainy, and as such favors players who have grown up on it or live in areas seeded with a variety of Bermuda grass strains.

Sony Open 2023: Weather and conditions

Paradise awaits this week, as we look ahead at the forecast. Temperatures will range from 70 degrees at night to 80 during the day. Wind can be a big factor at Wai’alae, but not this week as very little is predicted. It looks calm and dry.

With no rain or considerable wind in the forecast, conditions are perfect for scoring. Twenty under looks like the target, but after reading the Superintendent’s report I noticed an important detail. The rough height historically was 2.25”. This year, they have let the Bermuda grass grow
to 3”. Driving accuracy has always played a significant role at the Sony, this year it leads the list of skills needed to succeed.

• Ten of the 14 tee shots are tested by bunkers.
• Those winding fairways move in multiple ways. Four of them call for a left to right tee shot. Nine on the other hand, are shaped for a right to left trajectory.

Following accuracy off the tee, my next three winning traits needed to contend are putting, approach play into the green, and short game skill. As a PGA Professional, I know there are trends amongst the champions. Going back ten years, look at these winning tendencies:

• All 10 gained putting by an average of 7.4 strokes.
• Nine out of 10 gained on approach by an average of 4.6 strokes.
• Eight of the 10 gained around the green by an average of one stroke.

Sony Open 2023: Notable players and past champions

Taylor Montgomery is ranked first in the field for Strokes Gained Putting (SG:P). Approach play is led by TCU alumni (sorry) Tom Hoge. He’s ranked first in the field for attacking the greens and par-4 scoring. The short game title this week belongs to the 2019 Sony Open winner Matt
Kuchar. Kuchar is also the all-time Strokes Gained Total (SG:TOT) leader in the field. Can he still win at 44 years old? Wai’alae is one place he could do it.

More on the winners since 2013:

• Six of the winners were ranked in the top 10 of the FedEx Cup points when arriving at Wai’alae.
• The average odds of our last ten winners are +5500 (55-1).

Over the last decade, the average winning score is 21 under par. For a course that has only two par-5s, players must take advantage of those twelve par-4s. Who are the players that make up the field this week at the Sony Open?

• Nineteen of the 39 professionals who played last week in the Sentry Tournament of Champions will compete again this week.
• There are 144 players in the field for the Sony and the Top 65 and ties will make it to the weekend.
• Seven of the top 25 ranked players in the world are competing.

Since the Sentry moved to Maui, over 70 percent of the Sony winners have played in the Tournament of Champions the week before. Fifteen of the past 16 champions had prior experience in the Sony. The only recent exception was Russell Henley who won in 2013.

Sony Open 2023: Full Odds Board

Odds via BetMGM. 

Sony Open 2023: Best Bet to Win

Brian Harman (+1800)

I’m looking for chess players who can putt Bermuda this week. An accurate ball striker off the tee as well as from the fairway. The course is not long, so almost 75% of the approaches will come from 125-200 yards. Harman’s an excellent Par 4 player and ranked fourth in Strokes
Gained Tee to Green (SG:T2G) and Bogey Avoidance in this field.

Four of the final five fairways are shaped from right to left. Right-handed golfers are challenged with performing this difficult pattern to close out a round. Russell Henley lost the 2022 Sony Open in such fashion. The biggest advantage I see Harman having is that he is left-handed. Coming down the stretch his ball matches those critical tee shots. He’ll have an edge all week and use it to win on Sunday. One more thing: did I mention he was a Georgia Bulldog?

For a complete list of my betting predictions covering winners, placements, H2H matchups, One and Done picks, and DFS recommendations, please go to Read The Line and subscribe.

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