Will Scottie Scheffler win the U.S. Open in 2024? Odds, prop bets, expert picks for No. 1 golfer vs. the field

It's been quite the three-month stretch for Scottie Scheffler, who has quickly become one of the most dependable superstars to bet on in professional sports. Ahead of his highly-anticipated start at the U.S. Open in Pinehurst, North Carolina this weekend, it will be hard for even the savviest of bettors to put their money on anyone but the world's No. 1.

Just how hot is the hottest golfer on the planet? Well, he's scorching. Scheffler has won five of his past eight tournaments including the Masters, THE PLAYERS Championship, and most recently the Memorial Tournament.

Scheffler joins an elite short-list of golfers who have racked up five victories before the U.S. Open: Arnold Palmer in 1962 and Tom Watson in 1980. He also joins Tiger Woods as the only players to win the Arnold Palmer, Players, Masters and Memorial in the same year. 

Even Scheffler's non-wins have been impressive. He has finished in the top 10 in 11 consecutive tournaments. His only finish outside T2 since March 10 was a T8 at the PGA Championship, where he got arrested while trying to get to his morning tee time ahead of Round 2.

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Oh, and did we mention he has broken his record for earnings in a PGA TOUR season for the third straight season? All while becoming a first-time dad to his son Bennett, welcomed to the world by Scottie and his wife Meredith in May. 

It's been quite the ride, and countless casual and professional bettors will surely be hitching their wagons to his money train this weekend at golf's third major of the year.

Here are the most up-to-date odds for Scheffler and the field to win the U.S. Open and some fun Scheffler props worth considering ahead of this Thursday afternoon's tee time. 

U.S. Open 2024 odds to win

Odds (shorter than +10000) from BetMGM. 

Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2024 U.S. Open?

Usually, it would be deemed preposterous to ask this sort of question ahead of a major championship on a complex course with a 156-player field. But there's nothing 'usual' about this torrid run by Scheffler, who's doing things never even attained by peak Tiger Woods.

Not even Jack Nicklaus's complex Muirfield course could slow down Scheffler last weekend at the Memorial, where the OWGR No. 1 maintained a 72-hole lead and held off a surging Collin Morikawa on the final hole. 

In years past, golf and betting analysts have said that when Scheffler gets his putting game going, he's on a different stratosphere. Well, he ranks 11th on the TOUR with 28 putts per round this season, which is a fine statistical cherry on top of his mind-blowing 2024 sundae. Take a look at some of the stats Scheffler leads the PGA in this season:

The list could go on for a while, but you get the gist. Betting a golfer +230 to win a major seems absurd at first — but after looking more closely at Scheffler's streak of domination, it almost feels like anything with plus odds attached to his name yields value right now. He's most certainly the best bet, especially in a very warm climate and on another challenging course.

Of course, better Scheffler bets can be found than just a flat +230 to win his first U.S. Open outright. Let's peel back the layers of this weekend's betting market, and uncover the best and highest-value Scheffler-related wagers.

Best Scottie Scheffler bets for U.S. Open 2024

Scheffler to finish in the top 5 (-140 on DraftKings)

Even a player as hot as Scheffler is no lock to win a major championship over 155 other players on a complex course. The man became a dad just weeks ago, he recently got arrested, and he's coming off a grueling duel with Collin Morikawa that lasted right until Scheffler's final putt of the day. There are plenty of variables working against the world's No. 1 golfer and plenty of reasons to shy away from betting on him to win.

That being said, there's no reason to expect him to finish outside the top five. Over his past eight tournaments, Scheffler has five victories, two T2s, and one T8. That T8, his only finish outside T2 in over three months, came at the PGA Championship where he got arrested mid-tournament while trying to enter Valhalla Golf Course to get to his second-round tee time. He shot a second-round 66 hours after being released from jail, but a third-round 73 kept him from ultimately contending for the win. 

So, the only way to stop the man from finishing top five right now is to detain him. You're eating a little bit of juice here, but -140 on the hottest golfer in the world finishing near the top of the U.S. Open seems like a tremendous investment. Nobody has been more polished, consistent, and focused, and no bet on the market this weekend yields better value than this one. 

Scheffler to finish top 10 in the 1st round (+100 on BetMGM)

You read that right — do not adjust your screen's resolution or brightness — BetMGM has listed a top-10 first-round Scheffler prop at plus odds. Bing, bang, boom. The value here speaks for itself.

Nobody has started tournaments better this season than Scheffler, and nobody studies and prepares for complex courses more scrupulously. It would be downright shocking if he started Round 2 outside the top 10. Grouped with heavy hitters Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele to start the tournament, he should be as motivated as ever to open strong.

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Scheffler in final group final round (+160 on BetMGM)

This seems like another gimme, as Scheffler has been in the final grouping over and over this season. Do you really expect this man to be left off the premier grouping in the final round!? Besides one tough round at the PGA under stressful and exhausted circumstances, he has been mostly flawless and impeccably good at recovering quickly on the rare occasions in which he has faltered. This bet is just begging for some action.

Big Guns (Scheffler/Rory McIlroy/Xander Schauffele) vs. the field (+150 on DraftKings)

We saved the best for last, as this is easily the most fun prop of the bunch. By betting the "big guns" with plus odds here, bettors are getting a win if any of the three top-ranked golfers in the world bag the U.S. Open this weekend (the field, just so you know, is listed at -200). That seems like a really fun wager, at least for a unit or two.

Remember: this trio starts the tournament together, potentially setting the stage for some contagious shot greatness. When one of the three has a great approach, reads a fairway well, or nails a big putt, the others will be taking mental notes. Don't be surprised if all three of these guys remain in the featured group throughout the entirety of the tournament, with one of the them coming away with the 2024 U.S. Open championship.