Before the siren sounded on Friday night, Brooks Koepka lowered the boom on the field at the 87th Masters. Thankfully no patrons were injured by falling trees or dangerous weather at Augusta National. The same cannot be said for the field as only 37 players are under par as of mid-way through the second round. Although the scoring seemed low in round one, the field average was a little above par at 72.33.
As I watched the last two days unfold, I have noticed three trends in the 2023 edition of this major championship. So if you have a Rory card to win, I’d keep reading. In-play betting will account for more than half of the handle in this year’s Masters and therefore here’s who to watch and how to take advantage over the weekend at Augusta National.
Control
Pay attention to the players who control the club-face. Watch when these guys take the club back. They don’t rotate their forearms in the takeaway. Make sure the club-face is pointing toward the sky at the top of their backswing. If it is, that means money this weekend at the Masters.
The top five on the leaderboard are all gaining over three and half shots against the field off the tee and on approach (SG:Ball Striking). Brooks is gaining over ten! Four of the five all employ a closed face at the top. Coincidence, I don’t think so.
Creativity
The leaders are finding ways to score around the greens. This skill will only get more valuable as the week continues. Heavy winds and rain are expected to plague Saturday’s play. These guys will miss greens and will be forced to rely on their short game to save their round. They may even need it to score on the par 5s from close range.
Jon Rahm, Jordan Spieth, and Jason Day have been scoring from close range. It’s no surprise they are also close to the top of the leaderboard. Combined with their putting, these three have all gained an average of 4.5 strokes against the field.
Confidence
Now let’s look at the win equity amongst the leaders. When it comes to winning a major championship, it takes more than great play. Self-belief builds and pushes you across the finish line. This leaderboard is littered with championship caliber contenders and a couple who have already proven it. Favor the guys with majors over the remaining contenders.
Eleven guys in the current top 10 have won a major championship. Four of those players have multiple major trophies. Watch this weekend when the dust settles. Pressure is sure to consume a couple of competitors. My money will be on the guys who have proven at least once before they close when it counts most.
Those three characteristics clearly define who has an edge at Augusta. As the weather deteriorates tomorrow, take advantage and secure a couple of wins. Bet365 has already posted a list of round three H2H matchups. Based upon my research above, here’s my Saturday live betting ads.
Masters 2023: Best H2H bets
Take Justin Rose over Joaquin Niemann (-110 Bet365)
Rose is a major winner and a pre-tournament favorite. Niemann has gained over six shots with his short game and putting, but that’s it. He’s losing almost four strokes on approach. When the weather kicks in tomorrow, I’m going with Rose who has hit the ball much better and gained over five strokes around the green and putting himself.
Take Matt Fitzpatrick over Max Homa (+100 Bet365)
The current US Open Champion Fitzpatrick has gained more than four shots against the field off the tee and on approach combined. Homa on the other hand has struggled off the tee. Matt’s ball striking is almost four times better than Max’s after two rounds. I love the plus odds in this bet when we take the major winner.
Take Phil Mickelson over Harris English (-110 Bet365)
These two both have the putter going as they have gained a combined eleven shots against the field on the greens. Unfortunately for Harris, he’s really needed it since he’s losing two strokes on approach. Phil is positive off the tee and with his irons. The three-time Masters winner has kept himself under the radar and sits in the top 10. Local knowledge on a weekend full of weather challenges will set him apart from English.
At the completion of the third round, I’ll be sure to post more in-play bets. Hopefully that will be Sunday morning! Follow @readtheline_ on Twitter and Instagram to see them.
If you love betting on golf, take a moment and subscribe to Read The Line — the only golf betting newsletter written by a PGA professional that covers the LPGA and PGA TOUR.
Read The Line is the leading golf betting insights service led by 5-time award winning PGA Professional Keith Stewart. Read The Line has 15 outright wins in the last year and covers the LPGA and PGA Tour, raising your golf betting acumen week after week. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow us on social media: TikTok, Instagram, Twitter.
