Masters 2023: BetMGM betting insights, top trends

The Sporting News has been dishing out coverage of the 87th annual Masters all week, getting you ready to watch and bet on the 2023 iteration of the famed major. Our in-house PGA expert Keith Stewart provided his three favorite picks to don the next green jacket, and SN golf expert Jacob Camenker picked his favorites at every odds range. Yours truly covered sleepers, long shots, and exotic props in addition to a DraftKings DFS lineup and a column specifically focused on Tiger Woods' odds. Now, we're shining a spotlight on how BetMGM bettors across America have been wagering on the 2023 Masters.

Endless stats, data, and analytics go into our golf betting predictions each tournament. If we wanted to blindly bet winners without first researching our picks, we might as well go to the convenience store and buy a lottery ticket or head to a casino roulette wheel and put $100 on black. However, one analytic that rarely seems to enter the betting conversation is how people are wagering. Taking a look at BetMGM's line movements, ticket and handle percentages, and biggest liabilities can actually provide some keen insights into (a) how to read odds and understand odds shifts, and (b) how to find betting value. 

MORE MASTERS: Ranking the top 30 golfers | Tiger's status

Let's dive right into BetMGM's insights into the 2023 Masters betting and discuss what each piece of information means to us as bettors. 

MASTERS COVERAGE:
Day-by-day TV coverage | Tee times, groups for Round 1

Masters 2023 action: BetMGM Sportsbook insights — Outright winner

Line movement: Opening — current

Scheffler, the reigning Masters champion, has been a tremendously popular bet to win outright and become the first golfer to don the green jacket in back-to-back years since Tiger in 2000 and '01. But McIlroy, who finished runner-up last year and has six top-10 Masters performances throughout his illustrious career, has also been a popular pre-tournament pick. A win at Augusta National is the only thing keeping McIlroy from a career grand slam, so nobody doubts his level of motivation. Driving power and strong approach games could reign supreme during a weekend that could involve wet greens. 

Schefller, McIlroy, and Rahm shortening up indicates that bettors have been pounding the favorites, which is no surprise given the tournament's history of superstar champions. Alternatively, Woods' odds to win show that the betting public doesn't trust the five-time winner's ability to tie Jack Nicklaus for career green jackets. No surprise there, as Woods has played one tournament all calendar year, tying for 45th at the Genesis Invitational.

The wildest swing by far is Max Homa moving from +6600 to +2500. We understand liking Homa — he has five wins since Feb. 2021 — but he has never made any noise at a major, and he's missed the cut in two of his past three starts at the Masters. Somebody clearly knows something we don't, or Mattress Mack has made a splash on Homa and wants to lure him in as a spokesperson (Mattress Max?). 

MORE MASTERS BETTING: 
Odds, picks | Betting guide | Sleepers & Props | DFS lineup | Tiger's odds

Highest ticket and handle percentage

Scheffler and McIlroy are the no-brainers, but Spieth being a more popular bet than Rahm surprises us. Sure, Spieth won the 2015 Masters and has finished in the top-three four other times, but he stumbled mightily at Augusta last year, carding six bogeys and two double-bogeys en route to the first missed cut in his Masters career. We would shy away from putting action on Spieth, as there isn't nearly enough payoff for such a volatile pick. 

Biggest Liabilities 

If BetMGM indeed aimed to increase action on Woods when it shifted his odds to win from +4000 to +6600, the sportsbook succeeded mightily. Tiger now serves as the book's biggest liability, which is to say that Tiger defying the odds and winning his sixth green jacket would unequivocally be the worst possible outcome for BetMGM. We think they should be okay. The guy has played just nine rounds of tournament golf since he carded a +13 at the 2022 Masters. 

Masters 2023 action: Prop bets

Tiger Woods to make or miss the cut

As I alluded to in my column on Tiger, I don't think he has a chance to win the whole thing, but he does have a good chance to start strong -- something he's done nearly every time he has played Augusta National. While four-round greatness might be a thing of the past for Tiger, strong opening rounds are still synonymous with the modern-day GOAT. We'll be betting him -120 to card a 72 or better in Round 1 and -190 to make the cut and play on Days 3 and 4. Besides, Tiger playing is what's best for the game!

Most heavily-bet Tiger Woods specials

We don't mind the value we're getting at +175 for Tiger to finish top-20, but the rest of these picks seem like terrible investments unless you're dropping a five-spot or something. Stay away from hope-and-prayer bets. Tiger finished 47th in the 2022 Masters after carding 18 bogeys and three double-bogeys. 

Most action on the top LIV Golfer

It's pretty surprising to see one of my picks to win, Cam Smith, somehow coming in behind Koepka on the popularity scale here. Smith took down the British Open in dominating fashion last year, and he definitely has the stones to make some noise at Augusta. The only other golfer I'd be interested in here is DJ, but there isn't much value when he has to one-up Smith. The Aussie is by far the best LIV golfer and yields the best chance of cashing you out here. 

Most bets to make the cut

Spieth pops up again, likely because he's the most popular of the bunch when it comes to guys not drowning in juice. But we like Tony Finau and Cam Smith much better than Spieth — in fact, both of those guys made my sleepers to win and best bets to place top 20. Don't be deceived by the plus odds — Langer and Couples offer very little value here. 

Most bets to miss the cut

As Bob Dylan once sang, "The times, they are a-changing." Fifteen years ago, we never would have imagined betting on the modern-day GOAT to miss the cut at the Masters. Now, wagering on Tiger to miss the cut seems like value to countless bettors. Well, count me out on all that smoke. Woods displayed just about the worst version of Augusta Tiger as we've ever seen in 2022, and he still made the cut. Mickelson seems like a much better wager to miss Day 3 and 4. He's 52, he's on the downslope of his professional career, and as a LIV golfer he will probably feel some tension throughout the weekend from his former colleagues. Combine all that with some wet early-tournament greens and we project Lefty to struggle mightily.

Other most bet props

Rather than betting $100 on 'Any LIV player to win' at +500, consider putting $40 on Cam Smith, $40 on Dustin Johnson, and $20 on Brooks Koepka. Those are the three best bets among LIV golfers to don the next green jacket, and we don't have anyone else from the Saudi tour coming even remotely close. That way, instead of walking away with $600 on a $100 bet if any of them win, you would walk away with over $1,000 if either Smith or DJ won and $680 if Koepka won. 

The only other bet we like from this list is Sargent to finish as the top amateur. Only Matt McClean seems to be close to Sargent's level among the non-professional invitees, and we love getting plus odds on a guy we can call "Masters Sargent."