The Masters 2018: Here's why Tiger Woods will win at Augusta National

Michael McCarthy

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The Masters 2018: Here's why Tiger Woods will win at Augusta National image

Tiger Woods is going to win the 2018 Masters.

That's right, I said it. If Woods is healthy, he'll earn his fifth green jacket — and 15th major championship. Just imagine the scene in Butler Cabin when Jim Nantz of CBS Sports and defending champion Sergio Garcia drape that garment over Woods' shoulders.

That TV image will scream to the sports world: Tiger is back! Woods haters — who enjoyed that bleary-eyed DUI mugshot from last year — will just have to eat it. 

Why? Let me count the reasons.

COUNTER POINT: Why Tiger Woods will fail at the 2018 Masters

First, this is the best Woods has played since his last comeback in 2013, when he won five tournaments and finished No. 1 on the money list.

In only five starts this season, Woods has tied for second at the Valspar Championship and fifth at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Even better, Woods contended through the final rounds at both events, thrilling golf fans and sending TV ratings through the moon.

Is there still a "Tiger Effect?" Consider this.

With Tiger in contention during the final round of the Arnold Palmer, NBC Sports' TV ratings rose 136 percent. Name another athlete who can move the TV needle like Woods. Forget about moving the needle. Woods is the needle.

Second, Tiger is Tiger again. Or as close as the 42-year-old Woods can be physically to the 20-something phenom who once dominated golf.

Even when Woods won his last major, beating Rocco Mediate in the memorable U.S. Open playoff nearly a decade ago, he was gamely playing on a broken leg.

We all know about the blowup with his then wife, Elin Nordegren, and the scandal that followed that fateful Thanksgiving night in 2009.

With his marriage shattered, and a tabloid media salaciously chronicling every extramarital affair, Woods fell apart physically and mentally over the next decade.

To go with his four knee operations, Woods underwent four surgeries to relieve disc and nerve damage in his back. The world's greatest athlete became a shell of his old self. 

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A bad back is the Achilles' heel of golfers. Just ask Fred Couples and other PGA Tour stars who saw their careers nearly ended by back problems. 

Woods overhauled his swing to accommodate his failing body, resulting in a shorter, flatter backswing. He became too musclebound, sacrificing speed and flexibility for power. But it only made things worse.

Even his short game suffered, with videos of Woods skulling simple chips and pitches zinging around the Internet.

The artist who won 79 PGA Tour victories, and 105 worldwide, became a technician. Picasso tried to paint by the numbers. 

Woods became ever more obsessed with swing mechanics and arcane golf-speak. Who can forget him  pulling out of a tournament in 2015 because his "glutes" were not "activating?" Golf Channel analyst Brandel Chamblee declared him finished as a competitive force last year.

But Woods' lumbar fusion surgery has turned him into a new man. His 2018 swing looks more like the one that conquered the golf world in the late 1990s.

It's longer, more upright, ferocious. Just looking at his swing with the naked eye, ESPN analyst Andy North Woods notices a "freedom and movement in his body that we haven't seen in about four years."

The result: Woods' legendary club speed is back.

During one drive on the Par 5 14th hole at Valspar, Woods recorded the fastest club speed of any PGA Tour pro this season: 129.2 mph.

Club-head speed spells distance — and Woods' length has always given him an edge. He's averaging 304.2 yards in driving distance, good for 37th on the PGA Tour. But he's No. 6 in scoring average (69.474), ahead of Phil Mickelson, Jason Day and Rory McIlroy.

His secret? Woods explained in recent TV interviews he's playing "pain-free" for the first time in years. Gee, what a concept.

He's also smartly gotten rid of all the "coaches" who ruined the perfect golf swing. Nobody knows more about golf than Tiger Woods. He's his own best coach. Period.

Woods finally realized that. Guess what? He's starting to pull off those magical golf moments he used to deliver routinely.

Wearing his traditional Sunday red, a charging Woods drained a 45-putt birdie at Valspar to close within one shot of the lead. The gallery emitted a guttural roar that hasn't been heard on the PGA Tour in years.

Even Chamblee is back on the bandwagon. He thinks there's an 80% chance the rebounding Woods plays the Ryder Cup this year for the first time since 2012.

Finally, we're talking about Woods teeing it up at Augusta National Golf Club. Woods has won four times (1997, 2001, 2002, 2005) there and you know he's dying for another one. It's been too long.

Woods laid waste to the course in 1997, finishing 12 strokes ahead of runner-up Tom Kite. His victory set TV ratings records for golf — and led the green-jacketed rulers of the exclusive country club to "Tiger-proof" the course.

Still, the course is uniquely set up for his skills. We all know Augusta favors big hitters. Woods is right up there again, despite being almost 20 years older than some of his competitors.

What about Woods' errant driver? I'll grant you he's still wild off the tee.

But Woods is long enough to navigate his way through the dogwoods and azaleas by hitting fairway woods and irons off the tee. We've watched him bend 3-wood stingers around dogleg corners at the Masters for years.

Remember, this is still the tee-to-green genius who won the 2006 British Open while hitting driver once, I said once, all week. That emotional win came only months after the death of his father, Earl.

With more than 20 years of experience at Augusta, Wood's knowledge of the lightning fast, undulating greens gives him an advantage over younger foes. Knowledge is power at Augusta.

That's why we've seen so many 40-somethings win the Masters, including: 46-year-old Nicklaus in '86; 43-year-old Ben Crenshaw in 1995; 42-year-old Gary Player in 1978; 41-year-old Mark O'Meara in 1998; and 40-year-old Ben Hogan in 1953. Phil Mickelson was nearly 40 when he won his third green jacket in 2010. Don't forget how a 58-year-old Nicklaus made a Sunday run in 1998.

When I think of Woods this year at Augusta, I think of Nicklaus at the '86 Masters.

The slumbering Golden Bear came out hibernation to win his 18th major championship. Woods is four years younger than Nicklaus was when he won his last Masters. I envision a Woods moment similar to the 2005 Masters, when he famously chipped in for birdie on the 16th hole. 

Remember how Woods dropped that delicate shot about 25 feet above the hole? Then his Nike golf ball made a right turn and slowly rolled toward the cup as the buzz in the gallery grew louder and louder. Finally, with a last agonizing roll, it dropped into the cup. Explosion.

"In your life, have you ever seen anything like that?" asked Verne Lundquist of CBS, with one of the greatest sports calls in TV history.

No, we haven't. But I think we'll see it again come Masters time.

The wiseguys in Las Vegas have already installed Tiger as an 9-1 favorite. 

So you can take the field; I'll take Tiger Woods. The magic is back.

Michael McCarthy

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Michael McCarthy is an award-winning journalist who covers Sports Meda, Business and Marketing for Sporting News. McCarthy’s work has appeared in The New York Times, Sports Illustrated, The Wall Street Journal, CNBC.com, Newsday, USA TODAY and Adweek.