Charles Schwab Challenge expert picks and predictions: Our PGA Pro’s best bets for 2024 golf tournament

In this betting preview:

• Tournament format breakdown
• Last week's betting results
• Expert picks and predictions
• BetMGM odds to win
• Betting trends from past winners
• Course overview

From the PGA Championship at Valhalla, we venture to one of the longest PGA TOUR venue relationships on the schedule. Colonial Country Club started hosting the Charles Schwab Challenge 78 years ago!

Nestled in Fort Worth, Texas, this ball-striker’s playground just went through a number of changes. Famed golf course architect Gil Hanse has restored Hogan's home to its roots. How will that change playability and influence scoring and winning? Read on to find out.

Betting results from last week at the PGA Championship

Not every Sunday sweat swings in our direction. I walked with Bryson DeChambeau and Viktor Hovland inside the ropes the entire final round at the PGA Championship. The excitement, jubilation, anxiety, and admiration from the Kentucky crowd was palpable. That was five hours of my life I will never forget.

Bryson finished runner-up and lost to a very worthwhile champion in Xander Schauffele. It was amazing to witness Bryson wind up and strike the ball. If it looked entertaining on TV, then I am here to confirm that being there was even better. Congratulations to all of the determined Xander backers — you are a special breed to believe after two years.

The LPGA sweat was just as close. Gabby Ruffels, our long shot at +6500, lost to six-time winner Nelly Korda by just a couple coming in third. In the past five weeks, we have predicted FOUR wins, TWO runners-up, and a THIRD-place finish. Our process is proven, and we will continue to sweat each and every Sunday!

This preview is just that: a preview. For a complete list of my betting predictions covering the Charles Schwab Challenge winners, placements, and H2H matchups, please go to Read The Line and subscribe.

Charles Schwab Challenge expert picks and predictions

Best bet to win: Tom Hoge (+5000 on BetMGM)

Most approach rankings have Hoge listed somewhere near the very top. He can compete with Scottie and the best of them when it comes to the iron game. His victory at Pebble Beach a couple years ago proved his approach ability can capture trophies.

Just last week, Hoge gained six strokes on approach. Tom’s touch with the putter has been great lately. Over his last 12 starts, he’s gained positively 10 times. Hoge’s combination of patience off the tee, proximity to the hole, and putting ability make him a very viable winning option against Mr. Scheffler in Dallas.

Best head-to-head bet: Brian Harman over Min Woo Lee (-125 on BetMGM)

Min Woo Lee is an exciting player. He is a top-5 driver of the golf ball on TOUR. Unfortunately, his ability with the big stick does not transfer over to his iron game. In fact, it is the polar opposite. In his last nine measured starts, Min Woo has lost strokes with his irons six times.

Brian Harman just finished 26th at Valhalla, gaining six strokes on approach. The current Open Champion is in really good form, gaining two strokes as well with his putter over his past five tournaments. On a course where length is mitigated, take Harman’s accuracy and putter H2H. 

*BET OF THE WEEK*
Billy Horschel to finish in the top 20 (+200 on BetMGM)

In Billy Horschel’s last six starts, he has three top 10s and a win! He just gained 10 strokes on the field at the PGA Championship, finishing eighth. The combination of complementary skills needed at Colonial fit Billy’s game perfectly. He’s an excellent iron player and scrambler around the green. The putter gained almost seven strokes at Valhalla en route to his top 10 finish. A top 20 on a course where Horschel has a positive history? I’ll take it. 

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Charles Schwab Challenge live odds to win

Odds (shorter than +10000) courtesy of BetMGM.

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Charles Schwab Challenge: Winning trends

There's some mystery to the million-dollar question this week: what will it take to win? The books have the total score over/under at 12.5, and that will be due mainly to the soft conditions. Scoring takes some serious skill at Colonial, and I highly doubt Mr. Hanse is going to make that any easier.

The conversation begins and ends on approach. Forty-five percent of the iron shots are sent in-between 125 and 175 yards. For these guys, that is an eight or nine iron for the most part. Certainly, some sort of wedge on the low end. The best short-iron players have always shown up here, and therefore we have the very best across our entire card.

In recent years, the winners have averaged a negative gain against the field for around-the-green play. Believe it or not, the last five winners averaged -0.4 strokes gained with their short game. That is all going to change.

Gil was brought in to recreate the ground game at Colonial. Players will now have to adapt to small subtleties around the green in order to score. I believe this is the small edge most betting pundits will pass over. You have to actually look at the course to predict the value of around the green acumen. Most writers will only react to the historical numbers, and I bet it will get overlooked.

One thing that can't be overlooked: the importance of putting. Those same 10 winners over the last decade have gained an average of six strokes on the greens. Eight of the 10 have gained well over five strokes. Gil will only increase the gain in this category. The subtleness of his architecture takes incredible expertise to excel on.

Watch the best putters separate. The reason? Better putters are better green readers. Accuracy on finding the correct aim-point will be a big factor on new putting surfaces. If all 132 are starting from scratch, I'll take the skill leaders every time.

The guys will face 12 par-4s averaging 431 yards at Colonial. The last five winners have gained over nine strokes playing that variety of par. I used the word variety since Colonial's 4s come in all shapes and sizes. We have three over 475, four under 425, and five in-between. These holes are where you can create an advantage over your opponents. Positional doglegs require accurate approaches to score. Colonial has so many strategic par-4s for the field to figure out. I love classic golf course like this with character even though the terrain is flat.

Even though our winners have averaged 12 under par over the past 10 years, those same players have averaged 20 sub-par scores en route to winning. Bogey avoidance counts around Colonial. Our outrights are capable of keeping a round going with a killer ability to get up and down to save that scorecard. Soft conditions will help the severity of balls rolling off green surfaces, but everyone will need at least one or two tough up and downs each day in order to remain in contention.

Colonial needed a serious facelift, and they got it. It is better prepared for the modern game, and we will witness it this weekend. The outrights below are all great with their scoring irons. Their putter has been trending and they played well at Valhalla. Trust me, I watched all of these guys in anticipation of this week. Let's go one better than Bryson’s runner-up and get our fifth win of the season at one of the most history-heavy venues on the PGA TOUR. 

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Charles Schwab Challenge: Colonial Country Club course description

Perry Maxwell is the original designer of Colonial Country Club. His initial vision has been muted in many ways. Colonial CC is a flat flood zone bordered by the Trinity River. Many of the modifications over the years were not necessarily improvements as much as they were done to protect the flood plain: cement walls to block erosion, earth moved to preserve Perry's putting surfaces, and, well, you get the point.

The original design had been lost, and golf's greatest designers in recent years were hired to reestablish the routing. Par (70) remains the same, and so did the yardage. Probably the greatest testament to Gil's genius is the fact that he didn't add 500 yards for the PGA TOUR to come here and compete.

Length and score aren't everything. Proof can be seen in the average total score of the tournament. Over the past decade, the winners averaged only 12 under par. Hopefully that will keep the scoring hypocrites happy. Maxwell/Hanse will keep the competitors in check with strategic doglegs and the reintroduction of an interesting ground game.

The PGA TOUR schedule promotes weeks of aerial architecture one week after another. Although it takes tremendous skill to win on TOUR, a little variety is nice from time to time. Colonial will be played on the ground this week. Hanse's handy work will bring back intriguing green complexes and the need for a successful game plan.

Of course, every time we make the golf course more difficult it favors Scheffler (Although, we may have another Scottie strategy ready for our RTL readers). With an average cutline of +1 over the last 10 years, Gil wouldn't have to go far to increase the challenge. You are going to see a lot of ragged edges on the screen. The original design really moved with the terrain, even though it was relatively flat. Tributaries of the Trinity are also much more incorporated into the design. Overall, we have a new test and that's fun — fun for the field of 132, and fun for us as fans and bettors.

Northeast Texas is not far from Louisville. The same storms that plagued the setup at Valhalla have moved through the Dallas region as well. Fort Worth has received over three inches of rain in May, and more is coming this week. Temperatures will reach the low 90s, with wind somewhat manageable at 14-16 mph. Any wind would pose a dilemma when your average green size is 5,000 sq/ft. Some of the smallest on TOUR, gaining GIRs on the field is priority number one this week.

Colonial has been a nice balance of scoring and bogey avoidance in the past. I'm sure that trend will continue as historically we've seen 11 holes have a birdie rate over 15 percent, and nine holes have a bogey rate over that same value.

It's great to see concrete walls replaced with cool looking cliffs and creative slopes. Overall, the changes were well overdue and will improve the playability. Watch for the best thinkers to gain an advantage this week toward the $9.1 million purse. I've got my eye on some mid-range ball-strikers. The average winner's pre-tournament odds are +4100 over the last decade. Let's take this one down. 

Read The Line is the leading golf betting insights service led by 5-time award winning PGA Professional Keith Stewart. Read The Line has 30 outright wins and covers the LPGA and PGA TOUR, raising your golf betting acumen week after week. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow us on social media: TikTok, Instagram, Twitter.