Butterfield Bermuda Championship betting guide: Our PGA professional previews the next FedEx Cup Fall event

Butterfield Bermuda Championship: Mid-Ocean Club

Port Royal Golf Course will host the fifth edition of the Butterfield Bermuda Championship. The par-71 layout stretches 6,828 yards, nearly 600 yards less than El Cardonal where the PGA TOUR competed last week in Mexico. It took 27 under par to win in Cabo San Lucas, with wide fairways and enormous greens giving way to record scoring for the FedEx Cup Fall’s finest. Erik van Rooyan separated himself on Sunday with a closing 63 and an eagle on the 72nd hole to win by two strokes.

It was an emotional win for van Rooyen, whose lackluster season was made a whole lot better by his performance south of the border. Now we head east and off the coast of North Carolina to the island of Bermuda. With just two weeks left in the PGA TOUR season, the top 125 are still in question. The field of 132 players all have a chance on this Robert Trent Jones design. The top 65 and ties get to play the weekend and compete for those precious points and $6.5 million.

Our placement bet of the week won at the World Wide Technology Championship. Beau Hossler continued his successful fall run and finished 15th. That easily cashed a +120 top-20 bet.

Unlike last week, we have some history to review when it comes to the Butterfield. From 2009 to 2014, the PGA of America hosted their annual Grand Slam of Golf at Port Royal. The current championship began with a full field in 2019. Brendon Todd won the first tournament with a final score of 24 under par. If the weather behaves, at 6,800 yards these players will make plenty of birdies. That “if” is a big one as the Atlantic can still get stormy in early November.

The forecast for this week is half good. All four days the temperatures will be in the mid 70s. Thursday and Friday look beautiful for golf. Starting Saturday the wind is going to get serious as a storm system moves into the mid-Atlantic. By Sunday, we expect rain alongside those strong winds blowing well over 20 mph. Twenty might not sound like much, but when you are competing alongside the ocean, it will make a big difference. I strongly recommend you pay attention to the forecast throughout the weekend when it comes to live betting the Butterfield.

(For a direct connection to the betting boards, click the links in our Read The Line summary.)

If it is calm, players of this caliber can avoid the trouble. The greens are generous at 8,000 sq/ft and only eight holes have a bogey rate over 15%. When the wind blows, those 88 bunkers start to appear everywhere. Eleven holes have elevation changes to contend with and seven holes have water in play. Players will need to be accurate around Port Royal to contend. To give you a better comparison of size, last week el Cardonal boasted 97 acres of fairway grass. Port Royal has 21 acres to fit your drives in off the tee.

The course is not long, but you do have to hit the fairways. The primary reason is the wall to wall Bermudagrass. Bermudagrass rough can be very unpredictable. Combined with the elevation changes and elements, players would much rather play from the fairway than guess from the rough. Those large greens are forgiving, but 40-50’ birdie putts do not keep you in contention.

Scoring is a skill needed to keep up this week even if the wind blows. Of course the field won’t reach Brendon Todd’s record 24 under par, but you will need about 20 sub-par scores to win. Fourteen holes have a birdie rate over 15%. The scoring starts quickly at Port Royal. The first five holes run into the island. Since they are protected, players can attack the hole locations. After the par 5 seventh hole, your outright better be four or five under par.

The back nine presents the biggest challenge on holes 13 through 16. This four hole stretch plays to almost three quarters of a stroke over par (.69). We close with two more birdie holes in case you make a mistake, but that stretch is where players can separate. The FedEx points watching started last week. The players on the bubble have just eight rounds left to secure their 2024 TOUR card. I expect a stronger field in Sea Island so this week holds extra importance.

Don’t take the Butterfield lightly. A course with this much history and Bermudagrass gives us a couple strong factors to weigh when picking winners. Next week we have two courses to contend with. Take this opportunity and follow our research. This is a great week to get a win and add to our profit for 2023.

For a complete list of my betting predictions covering the Butterfield Bermuda Championship winners, placements, and H2H matchups, please go to Read The Line and subscribe.

Butterfield Bermuda Championship: Live Outright Odds

Butterfield Bermuda Championship: A triangle of traits

The four past champions of the Butterfield Bermuda Championship followed the exact same path to victory. Brendon Todd, Brain Gay, Lucas Herbert, and Seamus Power all beat the field with their flatstick. Compared to the other ball striking statistics, putting was their lowest average winning skill. For putts per GIR, the four averaged a top 6 finish with their putting. With an average winning score of 18 under par, gaining birdies is important.

Converting those birdie opportunities comes down to a skilled putter and approach shots. Eight of the 11 par 4s at Port Royal are under 415 yards in length. Each one of those attacking shots is a wedge. Combine those with three par 5s that are all reachable and if you miss the green a wedge is needed again. That’s 11 holes with a wedge in hand where you can score. All PGA TOUR players are above average with their wedge proximity, but few are elite.

Wedge play in the wind is another skill set. TOUR leading wedge players can control their trajectory. That’s going to be very important come this weekend. Hitting flighted approaches from inside 125 yards is a talent. Our weekly winning picks all have incredible wedge acumen. While most handicappers focus on the long par 3s (average length 208 yards) as a true point of differentiation here’s why that’s not the case. When a par 3 is 235 along the Atlantic Ocean it is hard for every player. Par is a good score.

Now take a sub 400 yard par 4. Drop a wedge to five feet and you make birdie. Do that across all of the par 4s and you start to separate. The same is true for the par 5s. Everyone in contention will birdie them. Not everyone will have their par 4 scoring in order. The past champions I mentioned earlier all made a bunch of birdies on the 4s. Believe it or not, they gained an average of 10 strokes on the field on the par 4s in the year they won.,

I already mentioned the size of the fairways. Port Royal doesn’t have a ton of room off the tee. All 15 tee shots face fairway bunkers and 14 of the 15 tee shots bend. You can miss the fairway and still contend, but you cannot miss by much and make the weekend. Analytics like good drives gained measure how much players miss. Much like Harbour Town or another positional course, you have to keep the ball close to the landing areas. Players with power have an advantage and can hit less than a driver and still approach the hole locations with wedges.

The Superintendent’s GCSAA Report mentioned the recent weather Bermuda has faced in the last three months. Six hurricanes have swept the island and caused course damage. TThe fairways and greens will be ready, but if you get away from the common areas, be warned. There’s only so much that can be fixed in a short amount of time. This is another reason to be accurate and when you miss, miss small.

My last course key has to do with player adaptability. Confidence in your ball striking will be key in Bermuda. All four par 3s face different directions. No two holes in a row run in the same direction. With wind predicted all weekend, this design feature will cause a ton of indecision. Our best bets this week are all playing very well. They have great course history here and give us the best chance for a pre-tournament payday.

Butterfield Bermuda Championship: Large winner

Best bet to win: Taylor Pendrith (+2200 BetMGM)

In 2021, Taylor Pendrith finished fifth at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship. I loved him last week in Mexico and he started slow firing an even par 72 in round one. He finished the tournament 18 under par! The putter is hot and so is Pendrith’s ball striking. Incredibly long, he’ll have an advantage off the tee and in the windy conditions with his ball speed. I love this pick in bad weather. In his last five starts, he has gained three strokes against the field SG:Total. This fall he finished third at the Shriners and fifteenth last week.

Butterfield Bermuda Championship: Bermuda’s best

To finish in the top 40: Brian Gay (+170 on DraftKings)

Brian Gay should be the Butterfield tournament host! He has played all four years and not finished outside the top 12. He won the tournament in 2020 and has been killing it on the PGA TOUR Champions. In his last four senior tour starts, Gay has finished 14-10-5-11. Peaking at the right time, look for Brian bring home another strong finish in Bermuda.

Butterfield Bermuda Championship: Best Bet of the Week!

To finish in the top 20: Brendon Todd (+110 bet365)

He set the tournament record in 2019 at 24 under par. Port Royal is a perfect match for Brendon Todd. With an elite wedge game and lethal putter, Todd is a threat to win on any positional PGA TOUR course. Ranked top 5 in par 4 scoring, BoB%, and short game his last start was a sixth place finish at the Fortinet Championship in September.

Read The Line is the leading golf betting insights service led by five-time award-winning PGA Professional Keith Stewart. Read The Line has 26 outright wins and covers the LPGA and PGA TOUR, raising your golf betting acumen week after week. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow us on social media: TikTok, Instagram, Twitter