The second major of the 2022-23 PGA Tour season is here, and soon, the best golfers in the world will take to the course at Oak Hill Country Club in Rochester, N.Y. to battle for the Wanamaker Trophy.
As always, the field for the major is stacked. Most of the world's top golfers are participating in the event, with the exception of a few who will not due to injury. But the best from the PGA Tour — like Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy — will all be in attendance and so too will be the top LIV Golfers, including Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson and Talor Gooch.
Certainly, bettors will be looking at this field and salivating. With so many quality golfers set to participate in the tournament, there will be no shortage of value picks and sleepers to targets in wagers and contests both before and during the event.
That includes the player prop bets that fantasy golf aficionados can find over at SuperDraft.
DFS players can make an entry into SuperDraft's Fantasy Props feature for each day of the 2023 PGA Championship. SuperDraft users can bet over/under totals for strokes in a round, total birdies made and total bogeys carded for a smattering of the top golfers in the field.
A two-legged player prop parlay will allow users to win three times (3X) the amount wagered if both legs hit. The more legs you add to the player prop parlay — with a maximum of six legs — the larger your potential payout becomes.
Obviously, with the longer odds comes more risk, so completing a clean sweep will be challenging. But those that can do it will be able to profit immensely from this fantasy prop feature.
But what are the best SuperDraft player prop picks to target for the first day of the PGA Championship on Thursday? The Sporting News breaks down the best bets for the opening round of golf's second major.
Best golf prop bets today: PGA Championship Round 1 picks for SuperDraft
Jon Rahm UNDER 68.5 strokes
It's always a risk to take a golfer to shoot 2 under par on the first day of any major championship. After all, we don't know exactly how Oak Hill Country Club will be playing as of Thursday, and we won't yet know if Rahm will have his A-game at the course.
That said, Rahm has been the best player on the PGA Tour so far in 2023. He is averaging the fewest strokes per round at 68.7 and he is the only golf who is averaging more than five birdies per round at 5.22. So, if anyone can shoot multiple strokes under par at the Par-70 Oak Hill, it's him.
And just look at what Rahm accomplished at the Masters this year. He shot 7-under in the first round even despite double bogeying the first hole. Granted, that was on what many consider to be a more forgiving course, but it still just shows that Rahm is unflappable, even under pressure.
That's enough reason to trust him on a course that should suit his tee-to-green ability, and scrambling prowess, well.
MORE: Who will win the PGA Championship? Best bets for golf's second major of 2023
Rory McIlroy OVER 69.5 strokes
McIlroy may be one of the best golfers in the world, but there's no denying that he has been mired in a slump for the past month. His inconsistencies started at The Players Championship, when he shot 5-over during the first two days and missed the cut.
It was expected that McIlroy would bounce back at the Masters, a tournament that he was favored to win. Instead, his struggles continued, as he shot 5-over again to miss the cut at Augusta. He then took a month off to refocus and returned to play the Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow Golf Club.
While McIlroy made the cut in that event, he wasn't as sharp as usual at the course that he had previous dominated. He finished the tournament tied for 47th with an even-par mark. He shot just one round in the 60s, his first of that tournament.
All told, McIlroy has broken 71 strokes just once in his last eight rounds on the PGA Tour. He certainly could bounce back at Oak Hill, but putting woes this season coupled with what has been a middling scrambling game make him hard to trust him in this spot.
MORE: Ranking the top 30 golfers in the PGA Championship field, from Jon Rahm to Phil Mickelson
Jason Day UNDER 3 bogeys or worse
Day has been on a tear as of late, and there's little reason to expect that to stop at the PGA Championship. He's coming off a win at the AT&T Byron Nelson — his first since 2018 — and is putting together a quality all-around season that should allow him to contend at the PGA Championship.
But will Day be able to break par in the first round? That's a risky proposition, given his over/under stroke total of 69.5. He well could do it, but betting him to record less than three bogeys or worse is probably the better proposition.
Day has averaged just 1.7 bogeys per round this season. That is second-best on the PGA Tour behind only the No. 2 golfer in the world, Scottie Scheffler. That and Day's second-ranked scrambling ability should allow him to start steadily and avoid making too many mistakes even on a difficult course.
PGA CHAMPIONSHIP: Best sleeper picks, value bets to win 2023 major
Brooks Koepka OVER 3.5 birdies or better
Koepka has been the best performer for LIV Golf thus far this season. In his last four starts, he has four top-five finishes and has finished no worse than tied for 11th overall. He also had a win at LIV Golf Orlando in early April.
Granted, some of the LIV Golf courses are easier than those normally used on the PGA Tour, but it's noteworthy that Koepka starred at the 2023 Masters before losing steam on the weekend. He shot 7-under on the first day of the tournament and made a total of 11 birdies and one eagle on his first 36 holes.
Does that mean Koepka will necessarily have similar success at the PGA Championship? No, but given his form and his power off the tee, his game should translate well to the Oak Hill course. Plus, he always seems to show up in major tournaments and has won the PGA Championship before in 2018 and 2019.
All that's to say that Koepka looks like a real threat to drop some birdies on the first day of the tournament. He may end up logging some bogeys as well, so that's why rolling with his under 69 strokes doesn't seem all that appealing.
But still, it would hardly surprise anyone to see Koepka pour in a lot of birdies the PGA just as he did at the Masters.
