Mexico City and Club de Golf Chapultepec is the host for the first WGC event of 2020 for the WGC-Mexico Championship. The major storyline that you will undoubtedly hear hundreds of times during the broadcast this week is the elevation of Chapultepec at over 7,300 feet above sea level. The light air means that balls will be traveling around 15-percent further than they usually would at sea level, so, while Chapultepec is fairly long on the card at 7,350 yards, it will play more like a 6,600-yard course that you and your buddies would play from the blue tees this weekend. That's important to keep in mind when filling out your betting card. Most of the world’s top players will make the trip south of the border, with Rory McIlroy (6/1), Dustin Johnson (10/1), Justin Thomas (10/1), and Jon Rahm (10/1) headlining a 72-man field that will not have a 36-hole cut.
Chapultepec’s fairways are among the most narrow on tour at only 27 yards on average, and the fairways are lined with trees. However, this is still a bomber track. Due to the elevation, the long hitters will opt to smash drivers around the doglegs, and if they do miss the fairway and end up in the trees, they will be far enough down there to be left with a chip out that still leaves a decent shot at par. Chapultepec’s three Par 5s are all easily reachable in two shots for even the shorter hitters, and players will need to take advantage of the scoring opportunity that they present. We are staying on poa annua grass for the greens, and we should expect players to struggle a bit like we saw last week at Riviera, as Chapultepec has ranked within the top half on Tour in terms of three-putt percentage.
PGA DFS: Lineup Builder | How to win
This is the type of event where the heavy hitters tend to win. Johnson (twice) and Phil Mickelson are the two champions of this event since it moved to Mexico, but looking back to when this event was at Doral, we see more of the same with Johnson, Adam Scott, Patrick Reed, Tiger Woods, and Justin Rose taking home the WGC-Championship title since 2012. So, while it may be fun to root for some of these exciting European Tour guys that we don’t see every week, history tells us that top-end talent rises to the top of this elite-field event.
If you have more questions or are looking for more betting and DFS advice (NFL, MLB, NBA, PGA), check me out on Twitter (@DFSBenj).
Key Stats
Strokes Gained: Off-the-tee
Strokes Gained: Around the Green
Approach < 150 yards
Par 5 Scoring
WGC-Mexico Betting Advice, Odds
Outright Bets to Consider
*odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Justin Thomas 10/1
You’re really splitting hairs between any of the favorites of this event between Rory McIlroy (6/1), Dustin Johnson (10/1), Thomas (10/1), and Jon Rahm (10/1), but I want to take one of them in a field this strong given the history of this tournament. For me, while I love how McIlroy sets up with how aggressive he plays off the tee and DJ’s course history, I’m going to go with Thomas. Thomas played well here in all three of his appearances with a T5, second (lost in a playoff), and ninth last season. Missing the cut last week at Riviera was a surprise, but I fully expect a bounce-back week from JT at a course where he has rounds of 62 in each of the past two seasons.
Paul Casey 35/1
Betting on Casey is always a tough sell for me, but I love the way that he is striking the ball right now after ranking fifth in the field in "strokes gained: approach" last week at Riviera. Casey has played excellently at Chapultepec in his three appearances here with finishes of T16, T12, and a T3 last season. The putting is always a roadblock that holds Casey back from winning more often, but a course that brings below-average putters back to the field with its high three-putt percentage should benefit a player of Casey’s profile. Odds of 35/1 make for a nice value for a player that has shown decent consistency this season and is primed for a top finish at an event at which he is clearly comfortable.
Sergio Garcia 50/1
Garcia hasn’t shown much of anything since he won the 2018 Masters, but signs of life are starting to emerge this season after two top-10 finishes and four straight top-40 finishes in his past four starts worldwide. Garcia is still one of the best ball-strikers in the world, and like Casey, I like that Chapultepec’s difficult greens will negate some of his putting woes. The course history is also there for Garcia, as he’s finished T12, T7, and T6 here in the past three years. It’s about time for Garcia to get back into the winners' circle after his long Masters hangover, and 50/1 screams value in a 72-man field. I’ll also be adding a few sprinkles of Garcia to finish top 10 at +400.
Kevin Kisner 90/1
I didn’t have much interest in betting anyone below 50/1 when I first looked at the betting board, but with a 10/1 Thomas outright, adding a guy with longer odds is a nice finish to the outright card. Kisner was a big winner for us at 66/1 at the WGC-Matchplay last season, and tee-to-green Chapultepec is a nice fit for his game. All three of Kisner’s career wins have come at short, tight courses, but he’ll need to improve on his "negative strokes gained: off the tee" statistics to give himself a chance this week. Kisner has admitted that he hates putting on poa, but he’s the best longshot value of the week for me at 90/1, and there are worse plays than also betting him at +200 for a top-20 finish after he finished inside of the top 30 in both of his two showings at this event.